TSP Center

If I would have stuck with S this month I would have gain 4%, I moved around to much and only got 1.2%, In June will S keep out performing C?

That's a good gain Elkhunter, but I hear/see you about staying in. Technically, if I just stayed 100% in S or C since 01JAN2018 I would be in better shape than I am now. But unfortunately, life doesn't work like that.

Last year moving my funds around gave me a HUGE increase, this year - not so much. Maybe the name of the game this year is staying in ALL THE WAY! I haven't committed to that strategy yet as I am testing that 2% (time the market) strategy and will for the next few months.

Either way, your 1.2% increase is great and I would celebrate that, not kicking myself for that extra 3.8% which I don't think that is what you are saying.

But to answer your question I am hoping someone smarter than me can enlighten us, but if I had to guess I don't think anyone will know (of course). Looking over the 100s of charts I have printed in front of me, smarty-pants tells me that C should be getting its big boost in the last three months of the year.

June is just not a real good month for any of the TSP funds if you look back historically, except the G fund that doesn't lose money, but you wont make any tremendous gains staying in that fund either.

I myself have had a pretty rough year so far...I am just now almost out of the negative territory and will probably stay parked in G fund through the end of June, I'll keep a close eye on things and will be prepared to pull the trigger and make a fast move if something starts to heat up, but that's me.

Only you can make a decision for you, based on your own investment goals and risk tolerances.

Good Luck!

My daily strategy of choice (and this year my mill stone) is 7980. That strategy tells me to run to the G fund on Tuesday (May 29th) and remain there until dropping in to the (ever popular) F fund on June 12th. Wrapping up the month on Friday the 29th, good 'ol #7980 tells me to move to the I fund.

I'm too dumb to stay on a time proven plan... I'll likely make a 50/50 play for C and S and hold on for dear life until moving to the I fund o/a 18 July.

This about sums up my opinion for the next few weeks at least...

https://youtu.be/MXTllluF9Pg

XAMOTOMAX wrote:This about sums up my opinion for the next few weeks at least...

https://youtu.be/MXTllluF9Pg

Awesome .... I tried Googling songs about "C" and/or "S" and my skills are either sucking or there are no good ones out there.

This guy has a lot on why he thinks C will outperform S right now... I like all his reasons and they make sense to me but I do note that he has been saying C over S all year and all year I've been in C wishing I had been in S!!!

http://www.tspallocation.com/

Anybody think the I fund could be due for a bounce? It has been down .45% this month. Could it be time for a little catch up to the 3-4% gains in the C and S?

Octjan2 wrote:Anybody think the I fund could be due for a bounce? It has been down .45% this month. Could it be time for a little catch up to the 3-4% gains in the C and S?

It's not quite blood running in the streets, but it does look like the European side of the I Fund equation is about to reach a bottom...https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/europea ... -come.html

Also the yen (a big part of I Fund) is getting stronger, which is good for I Fund...https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2018-05-23

Wild card right now is the Fed. One of their members (can't remember which) said they might stop the rate hikes in 2019. Makes sense, as many believe we'll be in a recession by then. If that happens, then the dollar will drop like a rock and it'll be booya time for the I Fund. It just may be a rocky road on the way to getting there.

I went ahead and pulled the trigger and went to I. 50/50 as to whether I will regret it.

I went I fund COB yesterday... so probably not a good idea

For a long time I used to just stay in -F-, and wait for significant pullbacks (>4%) on any given fund. Then I would jump in for the rebound, and usually jump back out to -F- a few days later, but this was when the markets were generally overreacting to every tidbit of news (Fed announcements, Greece bailouts, Employment & jobs news, etc).

Back then, I spent a lot of time in -F- (I think I spent the whole year in 2008 in the -F- fund). From 2009 to 2015 I averaged double digit gains nearly every year using this jump-in jump-out strategy. Then, I joined this website and started doing other things, and I haven't had a really good year since.

Maybe this follow the leader stuff, isn't such a great idea. I think I'm going to go back to my old strategy, except with -G- instead of -F-. -F- hasn't been the safe haven it used to be, since the Fed started kicking up those interest rates. Right now I like -I- the most, but I'm going to sit & wait a few days and watch the news (especially with what's going on with China & Italy).

I'm also looking more at inflation. Stocks generally do well in inflationary times, but with inflation kicking up to 2% plus, you're going to need a couple extra percent each year, just to break even.

I don't know about everyone else, but since about mid 2016 all my changes done here have been an exact match with what I have done in my real TSP accounts.

Chulke wrote:June is just not a real good month for any of the TSP funds if you look back historically, except the G fund that doesn't lose money, but you wont make any tremendous gains staying in that fund either.

There is often a bump up in mid-June that peaks a day or two after Father's Day. The rise seems to coincide with the beginning of the US Open, although it has begun as early as the Monday of that week. Strategies based on trading days can't pick this up because of the holiday float.
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Federal Reserve meeting is second week of June (12-13 in 2018). Since 2009 they have thrown candy from the press conference balcony; not clear what they'll be throwing this year.

rcozby wrote:Federal Reserve meeting is second week of June (12-13 in 2018). Since 2009 they have thrown candy from the press conference balcony; not clear what they'll be throwing this year.

Maybe anvils or grand pianos!