TSP I fund

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TSPsmart
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TSP I fund

Post by TSPsmart »

I saw something that got me looking at the TSP I fund. I try to avoid the TSP I fund with its lack of tech and exposure to European financials, but was curious about its seasonal tendencies compared to the other funds.

TSP I fund: Summer Doldrums

seabass
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by seabass »

:lol: https://www.fxstreet.com/technical-anal ... k-appetite Found a really good positive read. Excuse the spelling shown. {analysis}

crondanet5
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by crondanet5 »

I hope sig is reading this post.

Octjan2
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by Octjan2 »

If this year has taught us anything it is that seasonal strategies have been pretty much worthless this year. Every time I followed a seasonal strategy I lost money. Every time I did not follow a seasonal strategy I have made money. This has also been playing out this month. June has been a terrible month to be in G so far this month. As for the I fund, it will be made or broken depending on the USD vs other currencies. Not based upon anything seasonal.

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cswift01
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by cswift01 »

Octjan2 wrote:If this year has taught us anything it is that seasonal strategies have been pretty much worthless this year. Every time I followed a seasonal strategy I lost money. Every time I did not follow a seasonal strategy I have made money. This has also been playing out this month. June has been a terrible month to be in G so far this month. As for the I fund, it will be made or broken depending on the USD vs other currencies. Not based upon anything seasonal.
Same here. The daily strategies that I have been using have been making me lose money. I've been trying to include common sense in my investing, which has helped a little.

choich
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Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 6:02 pm

Re: TSP I fund

Post by choich »

TSPsmart/Michael, I followed your bellwether link and have one question: Why do you wait until 29 November to get back in for 2017 and 4 December for 2007? The other years buy back in the last week or 2 of October.

Octjan2
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by Octjan2 »

I really wish we had a better way to track the I fund. Nobody can give specifics on how it is tracked other than the MSCI EAFE and USD vs foreign currencies. The MSCI was down almost .62% today but the I fund was up .34%. That must have meant one heck of a down dollar vs the Yen and Euro, but on CNBC it didn’t appear to be the case. I’m beginning to believe it cuts off earlier in the day than the 4:00 for US stocks.

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userque
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by userque »

Octjan2 wrote:I really wish we had a better way to track the I fund. Nobody can give specifics on how it is tracked other than the MSCI EAFE and USD vs foreign currencies. The MSCI was down almost .62% today but the I fund was up .34%. That must have meant one heck of a down dollar vs the Yen and Euro, but on CNBC it didn’t appear to be the case. I’m beginning to believe it cuts off earlier in the day than the 4:00 for US stocks.
Perhaps this'll help:

Reporting with Fair Value Adjusted Indexes!
Introducing the New MSCI Indexes with IDCo Fair Value Pricing

July 2014

Introduction

Nearly all U.S.-domiciled international equity mutual funds use fair value methodologies to adjust their daily net asset value (NAV). Benchmarks for these funds, on the other hand, typically have been calculated using local closing prices only, resulting in artificial tracking error when comparing a fund’s fair value-adjusted NAV to an index. This tracking error has been difficult to explain to mutual fund clients and impaired comparability between funds and their benchmarks. Arguments calling for constructing indexes incorporating fair value adjustments go back to at least 2002 (Madhavan, 2002, Haddad 2008).

In this Research Bulletin, we examine how the newly launched MSCI Indexes with IDCo Fair Value Pricing help address this issue. We first describe what fair value pricing is, how fair value models work and how mutual funds use them. We then cover considerations for designing an index methodology incorporating fair value adjustments and finally review the tracking error reduction benefits that MSCI Indexes with IDCo Fair Value Pricing offer clients.

What is Fair Value Pricing?

Following the mutual fund market-timing scandals of 2001 and 2002, ...

[More: Please see https://www.dropbox.com/s/cxawm3pywr7f9 ... .pdf?raw=1 for the complete bulletin ]
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

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jimcasada
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by jimcasada »

I think -I- fund results are based more upon what has happened over the last 24hr, while this EFA fund is much more real time and telling about which direction the -I- fund will be heading. I woke up early yesterday and heard a lot of rosey news about how good Europe & Asia had been over night, but later in the morning I hear a lot concerns about this G7 conference & Trump trade war stuff, and I see the EFA fund heading down. So I bailed out of -I- and went to -G- before noon. Even though I wish we had a more accurate fund directly corresponding to the -I- fund, I think the EFA ETF is a fairly good indicator of where the -I- fund will be tomorrow.

crashburn
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by crashburn »

Well if you believe the TSP Center Data Call, the I fund has been favored over the last 4 weeks.

http://tspcenter.com/dataCall.php

Octjan2
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by Octjan2 »

jimcasada wrote:I think -I- fund results are based more upon what has happened over the last 24hr, while this EFA fund is much more real time and telling about which direction the -I- fund will be heading. I woke up early yesterday and heard a lot of rosey news about how good Europe & Asia had been over night, but later in the morning I hear a lot concerns about this G7 conference & Trump trade war stuff, and I see the EFA fund heading down. So I bailed out of -I- and went to -G- before noon. Even though I wish we had a more accurate fund directly corresponding to the -I- fund, I think the EFA ETF is a fairly good indicator of where the -I- fund will be tomorrow.
If todays results are based upon yesterday’s returns shouldn’t we all be TSP millionaires? That would mean we will know tomorrow’s share prices in advance.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by Tomanyiron »

Andrew Hecht
The ECB's policies have not changed in years, even as the U.S. Fed has gone the other way almost four years ago. European monetary policy has been stuck in neutral, and even though economic growth on the continent is nothing to write home about these days, it does not justify the never-ending printing presses and over liquification of the economy. QE and negative interest rates were a novel approach to stimulus but they have become stale and moss is growing on Europe's dovish status quo which creates a rising danger of inflationary pressures. There are many voices in Europe looking for a change in monetary policy. Germany and other members of the EU understand the historical consequences of inflationary pressures and are looking for an opportunity to end the unprecedented level and period of accommodation. The markets have become comfortable with European monetary policy, and a hawkish pivot would likely catch some off guard and could provide lots of action in the currency markets this week. The recent political events in Italy likely resulted in a perception that Europe cannot afford to pivot towards tightening credit a bit. However, this could be the perfect time for action from the ECB.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/418085 ... eek?page=3
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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jimcasada
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by jimcasada »

To Octjan2, I am not saying that you can accurately predict tomorrow's TSP fund price from watching a similar ETF, only that sometimes you can see a trend developing that may or may not carryover into the next day. To understand this, you realize that TSP funds and market ETF's are priced quite differently. In a TSP fund, "price reflects the change (from the previous business day) in the value of the assets held by the fund minus the fund’s share of the TSP’s daily administrative expenses. The new share price is determined by dividing the fund’s new value by the total number of outstanding shares in the fund" (from https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/oc03-11.pdf). It's a set formula, thus you have only one set price at the end of each day. Market ETF's are traded like an individual stock and are much more speculative, in that they can go up or down throughout the trading day, depending whatever the buyers are willing to pay.

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TSPsmart
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by TSPsmart »

I posted an update to the article I started this thread with titled So you want to invest in the TSP I fund.

The losses in the I fund thus far this unfavorable season are not simply seasonal. The monetary tsunami is reversing and may take everything not nailed down (in the G fund) with it. The most vulnerable markets are emerging markets, then the developed world outside of the US. Its a dollar thing this year.

The Federal Reserve needs to tighten US monetary policy but it will have an out-sized effect on international markets due to the tremendous buildup of debt overseas in US dollars. So we could see crashing international markets with inflows into the safe-haven US helping support our markets along with corporate buybacks... for a while, but not forever.

Someone mentioned below the daily seasonals are "not working this year". First you have to have the correct seasonal info - I tend to think my trading day almanacs are pretty close compared to the catch-all almanacs seen elsewhere.

But I still don't recommend making many short-term bets because the seasonal tides are being overwhelmed by global central bank monetary tsunamis this cycle. If you do not understand this you need to figure it out fast.

Octjan2
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Re: TSP I fund

Post by Octjan2 »

The MSCI EAFE was down .94% and the dollar was way up against other currencies, which should have compounded the loss and dragged down the I fund even more. Yet, the I fund was only down a little over .6%. Does anybody understand how to track this fund???? We should be provided more info than that it tracks the MSCI EAFE and the US dollar against a basket of currencies. Well, today’s loss seems to contradict that.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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