"Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June 15th
Moderator: Aitrus
"Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June 15th
Not that we need anything else to worry about with the year we've had so far, but are these days generally good or bad for the markets?? If bad, will things recover pretty quickly? The last QWOE day was March 16th and the markets continued downward from there. I suppose every one could be different. What do we think this one will bring?? Thanks
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Great question. And you just got 5 reputation points. A couple of membrs have done analytic research on this question with varying results. Not being that good with that work, I look for patterns. It seems like some months the market fares well in an options expiration Friday and others we get creamed. I suspect the short gurus have a way of manipulating their stocks du jeur to drive the price down to where they score millions in profit and then the stock moves back up. Quadruple witching as opposed to triple witching gives these manipulators more opportunities to gain at the expense of mutual fund/ETF/401k investors. Always keep in mind the investors Prime Directive: Sell high, buy low. The $INDU chart indicates this might be a time to step aside fror a week or two. And some TSPers move to the sideline every month around the 12th to guard their gains. I don't believe it is necessarily the quadruple option month that hurts the market as much as there appears to be a pattern of one or two months up, the next one down. Whether there is a seasonal factor involved who knows? Another problem with trying to determine if this is a good witch or a bad witch is it only happens once a month and so many factors affect the market in between them. I would say yes there is concern, but use the market charts to guide your way. What happened last year around this time? How has the market performed this year in the same timeframe? And then you make your decision. Hope this helps. Great question. Good luck to all. Tommie what do you think?
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Cro' - I tried to High-5 you for your longest post EV-ER, but I must have dropped 5-points on you "a year ago" so you can't get any more from me
You just gotta love it when a website tells you: "You have to spread your award points among other users."
Now you're telling me I HAVE TO give other people award points...really???? That seems to be the M.O of society these days so I'm not surprised >>>Everybody gets a trophy<<<
Let me go find someone else to High 5...BRB
Good post anyway!!
You just gotta love it when a website tells you: "You have to spread your award points among other users."
Now you're telling me I HAVE TO give other people award points...really???? That seems to be the M.O of society these days so I'm not surprised >>>Everybody gets a trophy<<<
Let me go find someone else to High 5...BRB
Good post anyway!!
Navig8tor
CWO4 (BOSN)
USCG, RET
CWO4 (BOSN)
USCG, RET
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
PICK ME! PICK ME!Navig8tor wrote:...Let me go find someone else to High 5...BRB
Good post anyway!!
I haven't said anything stupid since my last post!
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
seabass, with a chorus line like these 2 how can I go wrong?
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Navig8tor,
I believe you are going to have to give points to 3 or 4 other people b4 you can ^5 Crondanet
P.S. You are only allowed to give point twice a day or every 12 hours
Good Luck
I believe you are going to have to give points to 3 or 4 other people b4 you can ^5 Crondanet
P.S. You are only allowed to give point twice a day or every 12 hours
Good Luck
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Crondanet5-thanks for the reputation points!! Don't really know how the reputation points work. Don't know how you get them or why you get them, but thanks. Maybe i'll turn over a new leaf here and try to ask another good question. and thanks for the great answer.
- jlozano042
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Throwing some rep points your way seabass for turning a new leaf and posting a great question.
- Tomanyiron
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Hit-n-Miss, Quadruple Witching Friday happens on the third Friday of every third month (March, June, September, and December). Two of the past 3, the market continued up, on one it went down.
For prediction of what’s next, I like looking at money flow. It’s a little different than price trend. If money flow index fails to reach new highs when price hits new highs, upward trend is losing its power.
Look at the 2 money flow indicators at the bottom of this Russell 2000 chart. The IWM (red line) mirrors our S fund (blue line). The MFI's don't look too bullish to me.
http://schrts.co/d23Fn2
For prediction of what’s next, I like looking at money flow. It’s a little different than price trend. If money flow index fails to reach new highs when price hits new highs, upward trend is losing its power.
Look at the 2 money flow indicators at the bottom of this Russell 2000 chart. The IWM (red line) mirrors our S fund (blue line). The MFI's don't look too bullish to me.
http://schrts.co/d23Fn2
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
seabass there is another conundrum in trying to guess the market direction surrounding a witching expiration I should mention. There is a legal, lawful federal group authorized to transact stock futures to protect the markets from a major drop. I call this group "the meddlers". It would seem they take direction from the administration when to enter the market and make miraculous afternoon recoveries of morning stock drops. It's difficult to determine when to make an IFT because of this interference in free market dynamics. If the meddlers decide to take action this Friday for whatever reason what might have happened closing out options may change dramatically and the market charts get skewed. And it seems whatever happens in the market changes quickly making the 2 IFT rule difficult for those who do not stay fully invested. So the impact of previous option expiration Fridays may not be the same with the meddlers ever ready to act. We'll see what happens.
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Life's major disappointment is the missed conversations.
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Life's major disappointment is the missed conversations.
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
thank you jlozano042 for the reputation points-that was very generous of you. So lets hold on tight and hope for the best. One thing I do know and that is this year seems different and unpredictable, and so far has surprised us all. The charts will say one thing one day and turn on a dime the next. The one true thing to have is faith, a spot of luck and go with the gut, because the gut never lies.
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
Remember in these days before Friday's expiration that share price moves may trigger option call-ins and that can further affect market direction. One big news story and everything changes. Keep the faith and what is your gut telling you?
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
There's some interesting charts on the subject at https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/r ... =141470332
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Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
What is an option call-in and how does it affect share price?crondanet5 wrote:Remember in these days before Friday's expiration that share price moves may trigger option call-ins and that can further affect market direction. One big news story and everything changes. Keep the faith and what is your gut telling you?
Re: "Quadruple Witching" Options Expiration on Friday, June
My gut is telling me to pull the pin and dive over-board. 100% S to make some money. Still in the red from beginning of the year. Only 1 ITF left for June so...........right now 50C/50S., but I think S is going to continue to pull ahead of the C fund. Good luck all!!!
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |