Trade Wars

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

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VJoe571
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:25 pm

Trade Wars

Post by VJoe571 »

With the tariffs going into effect midnight Friday 6th, is it time to move to the G fund on Thursday or Friday?

Learning as I go. :mrgreen:

Jalpunk
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:07 am

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Jalpunk »

Does anyone have an insights into which funds might be more impacted by upcoming tariffs? Obviously the I fund has been terrible for a while, so I guess I'm asking more about the S and C funds.

phalanx
Posts: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:24 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by phalanx »

Should affect large caps and international stocks much more than small caps so C and I should get hit the hardest but most of our stock fund options stay relatively in lockstep more or less

VJoe571
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:25 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by VJoe571 »

Friday, July 6th, was an unexpected market rally for me. I thought with the previous day rally, seasonal chart results and the tariffs going into effect on Friday, the market would have declined.

Learning as I go. :mrgreen:

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Octjan2 »

One thing I am learning is to not pull my money out when everything is doom and gloom based on external noise leading us to think the market is going to drop. Point in case is that the market has been struggling the last couple months with the possibility of tariffs. Then, when the tariffs are actually implemented the market goes up! That is why people can’t predict the market on a day to day basis. At the end of the day, interest rates, earnings and the value of the dollar are what determine the direction of the market. I’m beginning to see that the best time to pull your money out is when the Stocks have been going up, you’ve made a profit, and everybody is bullish. That is when the market is most vulnerable...just like Jan/Feb of this year. I lost almost 10% jumping into the S fund trying to follow the daily seasonals.

Efire
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 9:22 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Efire »

See tsptalk about the second half on month.
http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
Prepare to jump by end of week.

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Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Billionair »

Thoughts on the tariff effect for the rest of this month? I see that we opened lower in the I with almost one percent lower, but steadily rising. I think I will hang in the I till around the 18/19th. Anyone else in the I currently?
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Octjan2 »

Any thoughts on what effect it will have on the markets if Trump imposes the 25% tariffs on 200 billion worth of China imports tomorrow? I’ve read that this scenario is not priced into the markets. It is starting to look like a real possibility. I’m sure the C and I funds will be hit the hardest.

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Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Aitrus »

I'm sure the market will go up or down.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by jlozano042 »

Aitrus wrote:I'm sure the market will go up or down.
What is the possibility of it being flat?
:D

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misfit
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

Re: Trade Wars

Post by misfit »

Like the earth...

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by jlozano042 »

misfit wrote:Like the earth...
Hahahahaha ... perfect timing with me drinking my coffee .... you win the Internet today misfit. :lol:

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Octjan2 »

At some point doesn't the I fund become a good buying opportunity? It looks like it is down again today and at the 1 year low.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Trade Wars

Post by Octjan2 »

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/cramer- ... m%20cramer

Looks like to me we got outcome #2 with a potential to go to outcome #1 within 90 days. With the Fed elevating fears, and the trade wars appearing to reconcile are we headed to new highs soon? I don’t think so, but I am going to ride out the S fund for a while.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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