Anyone in the G thinking of jumping in?

[XAMOTOMAX]

At that stage I'd have around 80% of my balance permanently in G and then play with the other 20% trying to get some gains but even that 20% would be played pretty conservatively. This is especially true with the current bull market so long in the tooth and at such high levels. You're kinda playing with fire right now so close to retirement. I'd be looking for an opportunity to sell into some strength after a bounce and protect your balance for these last 3 years.

[ProduceMan]

Tcatlin, are you expecting to be tapping into your TSP funds at retirement. If not, consider not selling at a loss.

[Tomanyiron]

..Down over 3% today changes things, however. I might pull the plug tomorrow if this continues.

I think a lot of it is "Sell the Rumor" on the mid-term elections. And that is not going to get resolved for a while. The question is about the balance of power and whether Republicans can hold their majorities in both chambers? The momentum is tipping toward Democrats, particularly in House races. Democrats getting a little more power, adds precariousness. After the election is over, it could be like Nov 2016, "Deja vu all over again". And hopefully "Buy the News".

[tcatlin]

Tcatlin, are you expecting to be tapping into your TSP funds at retirement. If not, consider not selling at a loss.

Hey ProduceMan,

Can you expand on that thougth? I'm trying hard not to sell at a loss, but I fear a loss that can't be made up in three years. If we aren't there already. There's so much fear in the analysis I see in the business news. Ideally I'd like to hold where I am and catch a bounce but I'm not sure... (as the kenny Rogers song plays through my head).

And I'm wondering what you all think the odds of the S&P 500 exceeding 2750 in the next three years? (Get your crystal ball out)

[XAMOTOMAX]

Best practice isn't to base your decision to buy or sell based on the past...its best to buy or sell based on where you are now and what you foresee coming. The market doesn't care if you buy or sell for a loss or gain. You could be sitting at the bottom of another 20% in losses before you decide enough is enough and you're ready to sell "for a loss". Your #1 priority right now should be risk mitigation just before retirement. Your #2 priority should be to make a prediction regarding the direction of the market. Not comfortable with priority #2, stick to priority #1. Just my 2 cents...take it for what it's worth.

Regarding the overall market, the leaders that have been pulling the market upward are now leading in dragging it downward. That's a bad sign overall to me. Take a look at FB, MSFT, T, NFLX, GOOG, AMZN. They are getting crushed. This may be over soon but it also may just be the beginning.

[tcatlin]

The only answer to "risk mitigation" I can see is move to G, but that means sell at a loss right now. Less of a loss than if it keeps going down but nobody knows. Thus the confusion, fear and not having enough knowledge to make a prediction. I try to glean what I can from analysts, folks here, watch lists, IFT list etc, but we all agree that could still be wrong.

Right now my watch list still shows the top 20 performers when I started as 47% still in C. Articles I'm reading are all over the map with some predicting the worst and other saying hold tight it's going to be alright. So, I realize it's all a guess, but I can't see any clear direction out of where I am now.

Risk mitigation = moving to G which means taking something like a 3.5% loss since Oct 15. While that's not ideal, it's better than losing more by waiting for a bounce up. A 3.5% loss now isn't desirable but wouldn't ruin my retirement either as deeper losses could.

[XAMOTOMAX]

Tough call and only one that you could make. You'll get quality, logical arguments for both options from this forum.

[marine234]

I bailed today to the G (And of course it Dumped the same day...Such is my luck) because this year has been pretty bad for me and I retire in a little over three years and have a goal amount set that I wanted to reach. To hang around any longer could have pulled me too far down if this keeps up like a lot of people are saying it may. I would rather take the hit and keep adding my money, hoping at this point it does continue to drop and I can jump back in and make up some of the loss. Found out the hard way this year that holding on when the ship is sinking does not always give you something to hold yourself afloat with in the end. Work with someone who jumped out every time the market took a two day hit and she's sitting pretty good this year, even without always catching all the big bumps. Lesson learned. Luck folks.

[ProduceMan]

Tcatlin,
My strategy is if you were to sell to G now (at a loss). Then return to C as it bounces back. You would probably have less C shares then you sold at a loss. I like the “numbers” power of shares owned.
If you look at past share prices in the TSP website (2008-10 ish) time frame. TSP C/S prices recovered roughly 2 years. So if you weathered the storm and also contributed from payroll to C or S you would have the power of shares owned in your corner. Thus recovering quicker.
Then again, it’s all a gamble.
Will you be withdrawing from TSP starting at retirement?

[XAMOTOMAX]

Google and Amazon report earnings after close tomorrow. If I wanted to set a nasty trap, I'd manipulate price action waaayyy down leading into those earnings, scaring folks into selling, then when the reports beat expectations which they always seem to do lately, lure them back in with a nice meaty bounce upward Friday, then once they're back in, sell it off again next week. Not saying this stuff happens, but if it did...

[ProduceMan]

Tcatlin, my main concern is if you don’t need to access your TSP right at retirement, say ..... 2-3 years. I think you’d be OK in staying with C and riding the the big waves. Surfs Up!

[XAMOTOMAX]

If I had an ift available I'd be considering putting in a move today to C for tomorrow. Maybe it's best that I don't lol. I think after the oversold day yesterday and with Google and Amazon reporting tonight, the bulls could have a bit of a run. Good luck to all.

[Tomanyiron]

The way things are looking this morning, an S fund IFT yesterday would have been brilliant.
Bill-77 did a 60%S/40G, WyrdByrd is making the move today, and Shrimpblue went 100% on the 12th. Anyone else?
Not that I'm advocating, just observing and speculating.

[XAMOTOMAX]

Yesterday would have been a tough call to make seeing how all the panic selling kicked off after lunch. Hopefully there's still some gas in the tank for tomorrow.

[ProduceMan]

I IFTied into S twice, half on 10/5 then 10/11 in real account. I would go to S today only if I was 100 in G.
If I had an IFT one of my first 2 IFTies