Mid-term election years

[seabass]

S&P corrections during years of mid-term elections and what the market did in the 12 months following the correction.

2002 {BUSH} -34% during +34% after
2006 {BUSH} -8% during +24% after
2010 {OBAMA}-16% during +31% after
2014 {OBAMA}-7% during +9% after


History shows solid returns afterwards.

[klausvonbg]

Boy that looks good. Only fly in the ointment are the tariffs and the Fed hellbent on raising rates.

[bamablue]

I think this mid-term year bears some consideration as a 'off nominal' example. If impeachment and continuous investigation is pursued by a Democrat majority in the house, the market may not be able to shrug-off the uncertainty that would create.

[Ericdelee]

Is there a time period for when the market begins to dip for the mid-elections? Time period it stays down (ish).

[Octjan2]

Is there a time period for when the market begins to dip for the mid-elections? Time period it stays down (ish).

Yes, the market usually rises 25.6% the October 16-19 immediately preceding the mid-terms. Lol, just kidding. Why did so many folks on this site sell to G right after taking a beating last Wed and Thurs? After those vicious 1-2 day downturns, Doesn’t the market usually have a nice rebound before possibly retesting the lows and taking the next, and possibly bigger, downturn? I would have thought folks would have waited to sell after it recovers a bit.

[Aitrus]

For some seasonally-based discussion on mid-term elections and a chart to show things in perspective:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/10/12/s ... r-15-2018/

Note: the article begins about halfway down the page.

[Brownstone]

Is there a time period for when the market begins to dip for the mid-elections? Time period it stays down (ish).

Yes, the market usually rises 25.6% the October 16-19 immediately preceding the mid-terms. Lol, just kidding. Why did so many folks on this site sell to G right after taking a beating last Wed and Thurs? After those vicious 1-2 day downturns, Doesn’t the market usually have a nice rebound before possibly retesting the lows and taking the next, and possibly bigger, downturn? I would have thought folks would have waited to sell after it recovers a bit.

By looking at the charts today Octjan2, you may have some validity behind your statement.

[Octjan2]

This may have been the best day of the year for the market. Unfortunately, those of us who bought in before last Wednesday are still down around 1.5%. Hopefully this uptrend continues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us give some of this back over the next couple of days, but to go to G now would be a prediction the market will be lower come Nov 1 (if a move would use up your last IFT). The S fund was down 5% since Aug 31 when I bought in last Tuesday, so I think there is more upside this month. We shall see.