Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Moderator: Aitrus
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Ok if you were lucky to be in the G fund when the $hit hit da fan, congratulations. Or if you bailed soon enough to save a little something for the grandkids, great.
However now’s time to stop with all the back slappin’ and high fives. What should we be looking for? Well something other than them' leaders: The Guru, The Wing, The Unique, Mr. Rumby, Mr. Gonzalez, and Poor Fred. Edit: OK if you insist and Mr. TooMany Charts.
I remember (and with nothing political or war, right or wrong stuff) a Donald Rumsfeld quote, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
This has elements of a war. I’m at war with Mr. Market, aren’t you?
So what do you have? Don’t depend on those leader, they could let you down. They’ve done it in the past.
OK I will start, and I know some of you care about charts about the same as you do the 9th letter of the Greek alphabet. Not an iota right?
A soldier I'm taking in my the army, a “Pull” type trend indicator (red line) and how it performed in 2008: Green and blue lines are C & S fund proxies.
http://schrts.co/FiU3Q1
And what’s going on now:
http://schrts.co/PFpejy
Not normally the best buy indicator, but considering what has happened. And what could have been saved in 2008? It doesn't take a genius with a backtesting program to see the merits.
However now’s time to stop with all the back slappin’ and high fives. What should we be looking for? Well something other than them' leaders: The Guru, The Wing, The Unique, Mr. Rumby, Mr. Gonzalez, and Poor Fred. Edit: OK if you insist and Mr. TooMany Charts.
I remember (and with nothing political or war, right or wrong stuff) a Donald Rumsfeld quote, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
This has elements of a war. I’m at war with Mr. Market, aren’t you?
So what do you have? Don’t depend on those leader, they could let you down. They’ve done it in the past.
OK I will start, and I know some of you care about charts about the same as you do the 9th letter of the Greek alphabet. Not an iota right?
A soldier I'm taking in my the army, a “Pull” type trend indicator (red line) and how it performed in 2008: Green and blue lines are C & S fund proxies.
http://schrts.co/FiU3Q1
And what’s going on now:
http://schrts.co/PFpejy
Not normally the best buy indicator, but considering what has happened. And what could have been saved in 2008? It doesn't take a genius with a backtesting program to see the merits.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
It does appear that the market is a good indicator of where the red line will eventually get to...
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- Posts: 60
- Joined: Mon May 23, 2011 8:10 pm
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
So is that down, Sideways or a bounce. Am i reading this right. First Hit a bottom then ever so slight sideways then a retest bottom??? Slow grind upwards on the horizon?...
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
The relative slope and positions of the curves currently look similar to how they were in July 2008.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Thanks Tomi.
-
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:49 pm
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Stocks up today (at least in the morning). What to do? Currently 80% C,S and 20% G. Wondering if today is a good day to take the possible bump up in C,S share prices and sit in G for a while until after the mid-term elections or until the market stops bouncing like Tigger from Winnie the Pooh. Or continue to test my tolerance for risk and be patient in C,S to recover more of what was lost this month. A lot of leaders still in G and not moved yet.
Good luck with your TSP and retirement plans!
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Today's bounce is uninspiring. It hit resistance at the upper boundary of the current downward channel and reversed. To me it looks like more pain ahead for stocks this week.
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
This guy seems to know what he is doing:
http://www.thefedtrader.com/market-turb ... to-g-fund/
I have been following his posts. I got back into the g fund a little earlier than him, but I missed a few days of the stock market going up after the recent crash.
But, that still doesn't answer the question - when is a good time get out of the G fund back into C and S funds?
I am thinking if the Democrats take the house, the stock market will start going positive again. If the Republicans retain both the House and Senate, the stock market will continue to go down for a while. Regardless of the results of the election, maybe early next year, people will start ignoring the effects of the tariffs and have more optimism?
I keep hearing how our economy is roaring ahead. I have 2 older friends who are computer programmers that have been unemployed for a while. This has not been the case for them in the past. It could just be age discrimination. I also know a recent college grad with a Bachelor of Arts who can't get an "entry level" type job that pays more than minimum wage etc.. While all three of these people don't have the latest and greatest training in some field that is highly specialized and in demand, I don't remember people having this much trouble getting jobs. So, I wonder about how good the economy is doing. For certain sectors of the economy, I am sure it is doing great. But, are there really THAT many new jobs available?
Is much of the economic news exaggerated? What are indicators to tell that things are going well enough to get back into the C and S fund? That is the big question!
http://www.thefedtrader.com/market-turb ... to-g-fund/
I have been following his posts. I got back into the g fund a little earlier than him, but I missed a few days of the stock market going up after the recent crash.
But, that still doesn't answer the question - when is a good time get out of the G fund back into C and S funds?
I am thinking if the Democrats take the house, the stock market will start going positive again. If the Republicans retain both the House and Senate, the stock market will continue to go down for a while. Regardless of the results of the election, maybe early next year, people will start ignoring the effects of the tariffs and have more optimism?
I keep hearing how our economy is roaring ahead. I have 2 older friends who are computer programmers that have been unemployed for a while. This has not been the case for them in the past. It could just be age discrimination. I also know a recent college grad with a Bachelor of Arts who can't get an "entry level" type job that pays more than minimum wage etc.. While all three of these people don't have the latest and greatest training in some field that is highly specialized and in demand, I don't remember people having this much trouble getting jobs. So, I wonder about how good the economy is doing. For certain sectors of the economy, I am sure it is doing great. But, are there really THAT many new jobs available?
Is much of the economic news exaggerated? What are indicators to tell that things are going well enough to get back into the C and S fund? That is the big question!
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
What is your thinking along these lines because I'm of the opposite opinion and believe a big part of the declines we are seeing is due to fear Dems may take the house which would make it difficult (if not impossible) for Trump to push through additional tax cuts which of course investors want. I've heard this from several financial news talking heads as well.entfred wrote:I am thinking if the Democrats take the house, the stock market will start going positive again. If the Republicans retain both the House and Senate, the stock market will continue to go down for a while. Regardless of the results of the election, maybe early next year, people will start ignoring the effects of the tariffs and have more optimism?
- Billionair
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
As a bachelor of Arts holder myself, in political science, that degree depends on internships and experience. For your friends in the computer science field, maybe a relocation to a tech-friendly city might be the next career move. Jobs are constantly growing and advertising nation wide, just by sheer trends. As for the market information, It's been a rough month, and I actually expect the Market to go up if the Republicans win, and down if the Democrats win. The House committees have major sway over investment and morale. A congressional gridlock is HORRIBLE for investors, because nothing will get done, except our 1.5% federal proposed pay raise (Good for one year). We will become bartering tools, like the military (again/we are already). I say play the market and stick to your strategies. Seasonal strategies are seasonal for a reason, risky for a reason, and when you let emotions get in the way, that's when you miss the next big ride.entfred wrote:This guy seems to know what he is doing:
http://www.thefedtrader.com/market-turb ... to-g-fund/
I have been following his posts. I got back into the g fund a little earlier than him, but I missed a few days of the stock market going up after the recent crash.
But, that still doesn't answer the question - when is a good time get out of the G fund back into C and S funds?
I am thinking if the Democrats take the house, the stock market will start going positive again. If the Republicans retain both the House and Senate, the stock market will continue to go down for a while. Regardless of the results of the election, maybe early next year, people will start ignoring the effects of the tariffs and have more optimism?
I keep hearing how our economy is roaring ahead. I have 2 older friends who are computer programmers that have been unemployed for a while. This has not been the case for them in the past. It could just be age discrimination. I also know a recent college grad with a Bachelor of Arts who can't get an "entry level" type job that pays more than minimum wage etc.. While all three of these people don't have the latest and greatest training in some field that is highly specialized and in demand, I don't remember people having this much trouble getting jobs. So, I wonder about how good the economy is doing. For certain sectors of the economy, I am sure it is doing great. But, are there really THAT many new jobs available?
Is much of the economic news exaggerated? What are indicators to tell that things are going well enough to get back into the C and S fund? That is the big question!
Happy Investing!
-The Not so Billionaire after this month.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
Billionaire, I like what you just said. But why are in stocks now? You going to stick to your seasonal strategy, come hell or high water?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
- Billionair
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
I am in the stocks now just because I want to earn back losses lol. I wish I could have picked up that 2.5% day and gone to the G. As for stocks overall, the charts show this timeframe is always the best, but there is so many issues (fed rates, damn tariffs, decrease in FANG stocks mainly), that are making it less attractive.
I read something earlier that said the 3 factors for market growth from today are: Total sweep of elections for republicans, conclusion of china tariffs, and fed recalculating data to go up only when required. Sadly, all 3 things look extremely unlikely (aside the Republicans maintaining the Senate). So...maybe I might take another 5-10% loss up till November 6th. I just don't want to roll the dice and chill in the G. If this was "the worst month since 2008," I survived lol. Just sucks to be up almost 12% (I started TSP in May I think), and to have most of it erased was irritating. But being in the G won't earn any back.
I read something earlier that said the 3 factors for market growth from today are: Total sweep of elections for republicans, conclusion of china tariffs, and fed recalculating data to go up only when required. Sadly, all 3 things look extremely unlikely (aside the Republicans maintaining the Senate). So...maybe I might take another 5-10% loss up till November 6th. I just don't want to roll the dice and chill in the G. If this was "the worst month since 2008," I survived lol. Just sucks to be up almost 12% (I started TSP in May I think), and to have most of it erased was irritating. But being in the G won't earn any back.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
You know "But being in the G won't earn any back." will not let you get off the hook?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
FOMO? Oh I thought you said YOLO!
Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever
I thought tariff threats helped the S fund because domestic companies supposedly aren’t really affected by them. If that is true, and tariffs is one of the reasons the market is supposedly down, why is the S fund down almost 15% from all time highs? Wasn’t this supposed to be the reason the S fund was outperforming most of the year? What mattered yesterday doesn’t matter today. And what matters today probably won’t matter tomorrow. Unless you run the game you can’t control the game, so why even try? You can be conservative and miss a lot of downturns and put on your genius hat, but you are probably also missing a lot of significant upswings. It seems to me in the end of the day it is most likely best to buy and hold. If you have been sitting in the G fund during this downturn this, in my opinion, would be a good time to jump in and just not look at your TSP balance for a year. This guessing game is for the birds and has cost me a fortune.
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |