S Fund - Death Cross Predicted

[sonofnthng]

I am in the S fund as of today. Gonna lose a bit, but at least I avoided yesterday's losses! Here's a little hope from an article I just read.

The last time there was a death cross on the Dow Jones Industrials, it was the summer of 2011, in the middle of a very nasty correction. However, when the death cross actually happened, the stock market was closer to a bottom than a top. In fact, research done by Jason Goepfert suggests that over 70% of the time, buying when this happens is the trade, not selling. One caveat. The times it didn’t work to buy, the losses were large.

[Octjan2]

I am in the S fund as of today. Gonna lose a bit, but at least I avoided yesterday's losses! Here's a little hope from an article I just read.

The last time there was a death cross on the Dow Jones Industrials, it was the summer of 2011, in the middle of a very nasty correction. However, when the death cross actually happened, the stock market was closer to a bottom than a top. In fact, research done by Jason Goepfert suggests that over 70% of the time, buying when this happens is the trade, not selling. One caveat. The times it didn’t work to buy, the losses were large.

I think you set yourself up nicely. Ride it through the year and you should be fine. We are starting to see a capitulation which is a good thing. We are testing the lows of October and the weak hands are selling (all doom and gloom on the networks), however, when you truly think about it nothing has changed since the S fund was at 1500, other than oil prices. Anybody that thinks Trump is going to let the market sink because of tariffs is mistaken.

[Tomanyiron]

I am in the S fund as of today. Gonna lose a bit, but at least I avoided yesterday's losses! Here's a little hope from an article I just read.

The last time there was a death cross on the Dow Jones Industrials, it was the summer of 2011, in the middle of a very nasty correction. However, when the death cross actually happened, the stock market was closer to a bottom than a top. In fact, research done by Jason Goepfert suggests that over 70% of the time, buying when this happens is the trade, not selling. One caveat. The times it didn’t work to buy, the losses were large.

The gist of what you just said, and all the other info out there is, don't use the death cross for a buy or sell signal.

[Billionair]

Anybody that thinks Trump is going to let the market sink because of tariffs is mistaken.

Poor Billionair (re-thinking a name change), has gotten shafted since October. The tariffs hit me a little bit in June, and I was doing well all year till now. Hopefully the G-20 stuff works out at the end of the month, but I do believe he wont budge until he gets a better deal for us. China is equally hurting from this.

[sonofnthng]

The gist of what you just said, and all the other info out there is, don't use the death cross for a buy or sell signal.

Well, I'm not. =) I'm following a daily strategy and sticking to it. Its nice to see that when the market isn't at a more than 20% correction, the death cross typically implies a bounce. This is as solid of a lead as any other historical statistics we use to build all of the strategies on this site. Who knows!

[wingchaser]

Anybody that thinks Trump is going to let the market sink because of tariffs is mistaken.

Poor Billionair (re-thinking a name change), has gotten shafted since October. The tariffs hit me a little bit in June, and I was doing well all year till now. Hopefully the G-20 stuff works out at the end of the month, but I do believe he wont budge until he gets a better deal for us. China is equally hurting from this.

What actually hasn't been taken into account (or maybe it has... hint, hint), is that if we really upset China & they stop buyin' our Treasuries every Friday (without fail now for the last few year's)...

We are going to tank like nobody's business!!!

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[Billionair]

Hey now, we don't need that voodoo magic here. They need us more than we need them, for now. But in all seriousness you are right.

[Tomanyiron]

...Its nice to see that when the market isn't at a more than 20% correction, the death cross typically implies a bounce. This is as solid of a lead as any other historical statistics we use to build all of the strategies on this site. Who knows!

Wing-Yogi-ism: I wish you (and everyone) the best in all your endeavors!!!

[sonofnthng]

Tomany, as to you! Happy Thanksgiving and all.. So, as it turns out, I guess I didn't confirm my S fund move on my real tsp. I didn't take that hit yesterday, but I missed the gains today, which is basically a wash. 100 S fund as per strategy. What do I know about the economy? Zero. Somehow, thanks to this site and my paid membership to the tspcalc, I'm at the top of the heap in earnings this year. Since 2004 the strategy I'm following has been on fire. It does not dictate our future, and neither does this Devils triangle or whatever it is. They're just indicators we can sort of rely on and have hope in. Of course, I 2ant everyone on this site to become millionaires. And when the banks collapse, we'll all have nothing because it's not real! Just ask France, when they wanted to convert their USD to gold, and we responded by suspending dollar to gold conversions.. Because we didn't have it. Did I ramble? Probably. Back to slinging Amazon! To my fellow usps brethren, best of luck in the upcoming month...

[danho]

Since 2004 the strategy I'm following has been on fire.

If you don't mind my asking, which strategy are you following?

[sonofnthng]

43167 is one of 2 I am following. I don't have the same return rate because I didn't start following the daily until may-ish? Before that I was gclapper

[MrSnrub]

Oh boy, if only I had heeded the Death Cross warning. The month after this last post was the Frosty Christmas Correction of 2018!