Sad Al and 12 squared...I feel like I get at least most of what you both are saying. I guess I have reset my goals more humbly, so that SD is now the irksome part. I mean really, 18% on a maxxed out TSP contribution for the next 15 years on top of what I already have looks pretty darn good. I don't feel like I need to take on a lot of risk, and in theory 18-21% returns should be very achievable. Well, it was achieved at this board, and it might be again...I would love to have some conversations with the people who were above that range around mid September.
Anyway, I am looking forward to seeing the final 2018 computations at TSPcalc, entering 2019 with a lot of humility, and hopefully having a rocking year despite how tough it may very well be.
#43184
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: #43184
I have been ever-so-slightly modifying my seasonal strategy as the year progresses.
The things most important to me are:
- A decent annual mean (e.g., 10% +)
- A low SD within each month (NOT between years)
- That the stock and bond funds are (generally) used/not used in months when (historically - dating back to 1988 - thanks Aitrus!) they have performed better or more poorly
I am currently following my newly created # 53846.
Great thread.
- Chindsey
The things most important to me are:
- A decent annual mean (e.g., 10% +)
- A low SD within each month (NOT between years)
- That the stock and bond funds are (generally) used/not used in months when (historically - dating back to 1988 - thanks Aitrus!) they have performed better or more poorly
I am currently following my newly created # 53846.
Great thread.
- Chindsey
Re: #43184
It seems like many daily strategies follow a similar pattern for December. Roughly:
S the first week
G the second week
I the remainder of the month
Has anyone come across a strategy for December that seems to really "knock it out of the park?"
Also, although I fund has historically done very well around Christmas time, is anyone thinking of avoiding it this year?
S the first week
G the second week
I the remainder of the month
Has anyone come across a strategy for December that seems to really "knock it out of the park?"
Also, although I fund has historically done very well around Christmas time, is anyone thinking of avoiding it this year?
Re: #43184
Based upon all the strategies I've created using Matt's tool, it appears there are two (main) approaches you could take in December:
- The first is outlined in # 53846.
- The second is outlined in # 53862.
While both strategies performed well in December from 2004 - 2017, no one knows which of the two strategies (if either) will perform well this December.
According to Aitrus' great work with data going back to 1988, both the S and I funds have (historically) performed well during the month of December.
- Chindsey
- The first is outlined in # 53846.
- The second is outlined in # 53862.
While both strategies performed well in December from 2004 - 2017, no one knows which of the two strategies (if either) will perform well this December.
According to Aitrus' great work with data going back to 1988, both the S and I funds have (historically) performed well during the month of December.
- Chindsey
Last edited by Chindsey on Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: #43184
Thanks, Chindsey.
After today's gain in the S fund, I'll likely follow #53846 for the remainder of the year. I feel like it's the safer play right now because we go to G this Friday, and remain there until December 17th.
After today's gain in the S fund, I'll likely follow #53846 for the remainder of the year. I feel like it's the safer play right now because we go to G this Friday, and remain there until December 17th.
Re: #43184
I like #32678. Not sure where I found it, but I stumbled across it somewhere.
Fund Prices2024-04-18
| Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
| G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.27% |
| F | $18.62 | -0.30% | -3.14% |
| C | $78.45 | -0.21% | 5.50% |
| S | $76.12 | -0.20% | -1.27% |
| I | $40.67 | 0.02% | 1.21% |
| L2065 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
| L2060 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
| L2055 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
| L2050 | $31.35 | -0.13% | 2.44% |
| L2045 | $14.32 | -0.12% | 2.35% |
| L2040 | $52.37 | -0.11% | 2.29% |
| L2035 | $13.85 | -0.10% | 2.21% |
| L2030 | $46.21 | -0.09% | 2.15% |
| L2025 | $12.93 | -0.05% | 1.72% |
| Linc | $25.28 | -0.04% | 1.51% |