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I've been of the opinion that we started a bear market but felt a triple peak was possible and even a new marginal high. I see a triple top as unlikely now. Too much damage in the charts and post-peak expectations across the board.

Buckle up, it is going to take some work to make returns the next couple of years.

TSPsmart wrote:... Buckle up, it is going to take some work to make returns the next couple of years.

God, forgive me for bloggin' during the Funeral of one of the greatest Dignitaries to ever walk our land...

But I believe that many of our 17,591 member's are up to the challenge, I know I am.

God, bless our Federal Servants in their pursuits of a better Retirement Life for themselves, as well as, their families & GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

sentiment reversed on a dime from the last quick spike and it can do it again from this dip. i think you’re right in the long term about a bear market starting, but i’m looking for a quick flip o/a 21 december’s shutdown decision. brexit and treasury yield curve will probably escort us to new lows before any kind of bounce, and that all ends conveniently before the new year

the question i’m eager to know is will there be a new years rally again?

Its a wait and see now

I read that when the yield curve inverts, stocks rally, on average, 20% the following 12 months before a rescission hits. If that is the case, why is everyone freaking out now? If this plays out like the other inversions won’t there be plenty of opportunities to sell at a much better price than now?

I don't see how we can really have 17591 active members here when there are only 1233 folks listed on the Leader Board?

Octjan2 wrote:I read that when the yield curve inverts, stocks rally, on average, 20% the following 12 months before a rescission hits. If that is the case, why is everyone freaking out now? If this plays out like the other inversions won’t there be plenty of opportunities to sell at a much better price than now?

One thing I'm wrestling is that when things become "known" in economics (e.g. Blue Monday, etc.) that they usually don't hold anymore because people count on them. The fact that the market is going down now and the fact that many are expecting a recession in the next year or year and a half make me wonder how the market will react. I.e. if all people expect the market to behave a certain way, everyone plans for it, acts upon it, making that expected event not to transpire. This leaves me with the question to what will happen.

Best,

Me

jimcasada wrote:I don't see how we can really have 17591 active members here when there are only 1233 folks listed on the Leader Board?

The Leader Board Page has a disclaimer on it that reads, "Only members who have logged in within the past 30 days appear on the Leader Board". My belief is that a lot of member's treat this Fantasy Website in a similar fashion as they do their real TSP Account, in that, once established, they never look back. I know several people where I work that established their accounts, made the minimum contribution (in the G Fund) just to get the match & 20 years later, had no idea they could actually control their own (current & future) allocations.

I seemed to have gotten back "in", just in time for the deluge. Kudo's to Billionair for having the foresight(?) to move early & to cro'5, BradTheDad, rcozby (though he still may be on vacation) & milog for having the patience to not even attempt a test of these waters...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

I've gotten crushed since the October downswing, and I knew more was coming. The last time we had a 3% drop it was immediately followed by a 2.5% drop. I'm already down enough, going to G it out till next week. -4% almost in one day, ugh.

wingchaser wrote: Kudo's to Billionair for having the foresight(?) to move early & to cro'5, BradTheDad, rcozby (though he still may be on vacation) & milog for having the patience to not even attempt a test of these waters...

Vacation ended 2 Dec; was all set to jump back in on Monday, but the market went too high too fast...figured I missed the party. True, that!

I've said it before, "Each IFT can be a winner, or it can be a lesson". The thing I'm thinking now is, shouldn't I have had two straggles: one for Bull markets, and one for Bears? It turned to a Bear in Oct, and got volatile.

Backtesting is so time consuming, tedious (& boring), but I bet there's an answer back there somewhere.

Tomanyiron wrote:I've said it before, "Each IFT can be a winner, or it can be a lesson". The thing I'm thinking now is, shouldn't I have had two straggles: one for Bull markets, and one for Bears? It turned to a Bear in Oct, and got volatile.

Backtesting is so time consuming, tedious (& boring), but I bet there's an answer back there somewhere.

100%. I am with you, I've had strat 39794 that was perfect until October, and here I find myself thinking it will get better, when it consistently doesn't. 10% evaporated since October, and it is not going to come back in a month. It'll take 6 months. I'm probably going to swap to 50/50 G and F until I find something better strat wise.

**Edit and updated. Whispers tell me that tweet storms are inbound and tariffs will be mentioned. Predicting another 3-4% decrease day.

While reading this post and talking about "bears", I went back in my mind and started thinking about my training/experience with actual bear attacks in the wild. Then I tried to compare actual countermeasures of a physical bear attack and how these countermeasures could relate to a financial bear "attack".

This is all I came up ... and just wanted to share.

Another downfall of this TSP System is the 1200 hour mandate to get your IFT "in" by. If your schedules are anything like mine, life doesn't always offer up a convenient time-frame to get down to your car to move (in my case) 6-digits expediently on one's cell phone. Looks like I'm "stuck" in C Fund for now, but that doesn't infer that I have to ride this puppy all the way down (wherever that may be)...

Congtrats to the many of the "48" who took measures to protect their retirement accounts!!!

On 3-Sep-19, the day/hour I turn 59 1/2, I WILL BE moving my entire TSP over to my Roll-Over IRA Account with Fidelity. No one will ever dictate that level of control over MY MONEY (again) going forward (low fees or not). Having said that, I will continue to fund my TSP until my retirement date (MRA+30)...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!