TSP Center

Scenario:

If one was in G right now, had IFTs left, and was lucky enough to miss the blood bath, at what point would you consider getting back in to any of the stock funds?

Or

Would you just stay put in the safety of G with the flood of negative news, uncertainty and volatility.

What would be your strategy, timeline or re-entry (S&P?) point moving forward given the changing financial environment?

I got out to G right before the drop with 1 IFT left. Santa rally around Dec 21?

I was thinking of IFT'ing on the 21st (to take effect on the 24th). My understanding of the Santa Rally is that it generally occurs on the last trading week of December.

Slight edit (from Barrons.com)

"... if past is prologue, he (Santa) will most likely bring a gift for stock investors: a modest rally lasting from the first trading day after Christmas through the first two trading days of January."

"What investors should do is observe, says Jeff Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac: “When the rally doesn’t appear, it’s often a signal of bad things to come.”

Indeed, stocks swooned in the final weeks of 1999 and 2007—and bear markets followed."

If I was in G and had a Dec IFT available I would have put my IFT into stocks at 11:50 this morning (probably would do 50/50 C and S).

I'm actually supposed to go into the G before noon Friday for a week. I'm wondering if that would lock in my losses provided we bounce back up a few %. I may just hold tight in the S fund for now. If I were sitting in the G fund, I'd be back into the S after Tuesdays dip.

Momentum oscillators seem to suggest more downside on the way...perhaps stimulated by tomorrow's wage figures & then anxieties about the upcoming Fed meeting. My fantasy is that Powell could show up in a Santa suit for the press conference, so am thinking of buying into that on 18 Dec (effective 19th). Of course, Russia, China & the Tweetster could muck all that up. Main objective is not to lose money over the next 25 days, since the EOY number sticks with you forever.

XAMOTOMAX wrote:If I was in G and had a Dec IFT available I would have put my IFT into stocks at 11:50 this morning (probably would do 50/50 C and S).

I was tempted to do just that yesterday but decided to just observe and chill in G until there's a more clear idea of a trend. But looking at today I'm awfully tempted to put in an IFT to one or both of C/S before Noon today if it continues to drop. I exited C at S&P 2790 we are now over 100 points below and dropping. Not sure.

Looking at charts this am, I'd have rather seen a close yesterday around support vs. testing it then bouncing and closing above support. Could still see another decline in the 2% range before a bounce. Who knows...

We also have the seasonal instability of the middle of December being a low point on stocks, the federal budget shutdown (or not), Fed rates (looking better), and the tariffs/China Huewei stuff. Way too much to take into effect for TSP as a move. I think XAMO is correct in waiting for a better trend, because all I see is downslides and uncertainty, in a usually good month.

IFT to enter C/S 50/50 from G. Am i buying into downtrend or...

mango72 wrote:IFT to enter C/S 50/50 from G. Am i buying into downtrend or...

I guess that's the question nobody can answer and is the part that makes this a crap shoot. I'm thinking we have to be near a bottom at least for the short term but I can't back that up with data. Even with data, emotion and news can throw the best predictions and plans into a ditch. I agree with Billionaire that it's probably not an opportune time to drop anchor in a stock fund. I think I'm going to wait and sit on what I have for now and try to chill in G. I might buy back in next week if we see evidence of a short term bottom, but then again maybe not.

Its been awhile since the 50 day crossed the 200 for the sp500 tho. Thinking a bounce may occur...

mango72 wrote:Its been awhile since the 50 day crossed the 200 for the sp500 tho. Thinking a bounce may occur...

Yah, it's tempting and the clock is ticking! I'd be buying in at 4.6% below (at the moment anyway) where I cashed out the other day. Doesn't seem like I could go wrong unless the bottom drops out from here which given the instability and volatility lately I would not rule anything out.

Historically, the best approach has been to stay in G through the 2nd week of December, and switch into S or I on the 11th trading day, Dec. 17, 2018 (or Dec. 16 excluding the Dec 5. holiday). This is the consensus of 5 strategies which have outperformed the Max(G,F,C,S,I) by an average of 17+ percentage points, each year from 2004-Nov 2018, and without a single negative year.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=538 ... 7980-12319

Alternatively, I'd wait until the SPY:AGG ratio crossed its 5 day moving average to get back in.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3 ... 828077057c

tcatlin wrote:

mango72 wrote:Its been awhile since the 50 day crossed the 200 for the sp500 tho. Thinking a bounce may occur...

Yah, it's tempting and the clock is ticking! I'd be buying in at 4.6% below (at the moment anyway) where I cashed out the other day. Doesn't seem like I could go wrong unless the bottom drops out from here which given the instability and volatility lately I would not rule anything out.

Cant change my IFT now. Locked! lol