My thoughts

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

My thoughts

Post by cswift01 »

Dear TSP members,

I can't help but figure the present market conditions are due to other things that most commentators are saying. If there is a "reasonable" expectation that next year there will be a slowdown and in many "talking heads" opinions a possible recession (or 2020), couldn't it be that the market is simply pricing that in? It's like the "Blue Monday" effect or something similar (e.g. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/santa ... 2018-11-20). If the market already is aware of something, wouldn't it get priced in? If so, then this present market is more likely correcting itself in regards to the next couple of years. This would (a) mean that the slowdown is likely to happen now, rather than later and (b) that the later might be better as now the bad is priced into the market.

Am I making sense here? It just seems like our daily pricing is going in an odd direction (I know some point to the ending of easy money, trade wars, etc.).

Best,

Me

User avatar
evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: My thoughts

Post by evilanne »

The markets only make sense in retrospect and then it may not be anything conclusive :?

seawatcher
Posts: 99
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:49 pm

Re: My thoughts

Post by seawatcher »

When the market goes down like it has this month, I'm never sure if I should stay in C,S and hope for some recovery or bail to 100% G and cut my losses and come back to C,S another day. I don't want to sell low by moving to G so I'm tempted to just wait... but then I sometimes end up watching the market go down more. Happened more than once in 2018 as it did this month.

I think I need to take less risk by going to G sooner (being less greedy to recover lost funds) and staying in G longer (even if that means missing gains sometimes). 2017 was a great year = 20.42% return. Then 2018 came, not so good - I lost one-third of all the dollars I gained in 2017.
Good luck with your TSP and retirement plans!

mango72
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:44 am

Re: My thoughts

Post by mango72 »

Take the SPY right at this moment, for instance, its RSI is around 40 showing its major oversold. I think entering the C or S now would be fine. Once the RSI reaches upwards of 80, I'd go back to the G. You might sit in the G for a few weeks waiting for that RSI to drop. But do take other indicators like moving avgs and MACD in to consideration for entry points as well...

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: My thoughts

Post by Tomanyiron »

The fact is today, there are a lot more negatively than there is positively. A lot of problems in the US and the world. If a few get resolved then things might get better.

The first rule of investment is don’t lose money. And the second rule of investment is if you do, don’t keep on losing it.
Watch this video, if you don't have time to watch it all, fast forward to the 7 min mark. Is this you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

User avatar
misfit
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:21 am

Re: My thoughts

Post by misfit »

Tomanyiron wrote:The fact is today, there are a lot more negatively than there is positively. A lot of problems in the US and the world. If a few get resolved then things might get better.

The first rule of investment is don’t lose money. And the second rule of investment is if you do, don’t keep on losing it.
Watch this video, if you don't have time to watch it all, fast forward to the 7 min mark. Is this you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk
-------------------
Dude ends video with...for every $100 you'll end up with $80. He predicted this past year. :roll:

User avatar
TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: My thoughts

Post by TSP Jedi »

who cares what the news is or where the price action is going.

buy the F’in dip and sell the F’in rip

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".