The Next Two Weeks

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nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

The Next Two Weeks

Post by nrialto »

I'm looking for everyone's thoughts on a plan from now through the year's end.

It's obvious the S Fund (normally seasonally good this time of year) is currently a stinker. Looking at historical charts, it seems as if the day before Christmas through the few days after, historically does well. Also, it seems many daily plans are in the I fund the last week of December, but even that particular fund is very dicey right now.

I'd hate to miss out on gains for one of the best month's of the year, but I'm sure I'd kick myself if I ended up taking a loss instead.

Thoughts?

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Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by Billionair »

Weigh the risks and evaluate:

Pro's: Seasonal history, potential conclusion of trade wars, Santa rally

Con's: Tariffs/tweets related to them, government issues, China/Canada HueWei relations, Next weeks meeting with the Fed on the 17/18th.

The two we really have are potential Presidential messages to shake the market, as well as the Fed. Rumor is that the Fed will hike rates this month, but have 1-2 hikes for all of 2019. This could be the start to a huge rally for the S. If the Fed goes the other way, I would think the entire Santa rally will be compressed to a couple days. The market needs a positive bump somehow.

The last bump was off trade work at the G20, and the Fed talking about a "dove approach," to Fed rates. That's what sent it sky-high, and then a tweet brought it down 4%. I would hold off on your next move until next monday/tuesday. Personally, I am rolling the dice and going Monday into the S. I feel that one or two more days of lows, will help get the true bottom so we can rally up. The market needs a serious shove/resolutions on China/Fed Rates.

Keep an eye on Cron/Guru/sonoftheng. They have their own way of doing business, but have been power players here for a long time. Near perfection, they almost always are making good trades as well. I think this next potential rally has Dec 18th - 2nd to give returns, then it's back to an unstable market. One bad tweet on China can ruin it.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by nrialto »

Thanks, Billionair.

The December daily I'm following at the moment has me IFT'ing to S on the 17th (effective the 18th) and getting out on the 27th. I also have a feeling that if the FOMC is dovish, we may get some upward movement. I will have my finger on the IFT trigger though; any positive movement in the market lately has been short lived.

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jimcasada
Posts: 284
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by jimcasada »

I just changed over to -G- effective at the close today on my real accounts, although I missed the deadline here (which means my account here will no longer will match my real TSP). I still have one more transfer left before the end of the year. I expect at least one more general downturn before January.

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TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by TSP Jedi »


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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by sonofnthng »

Well, I just jumped back in a day earlier than the plan I follow, and low and behold, another uppercut to the nads. I thought after losing 5% and then bouncing a bit, that we'd see some more gains. I am trying to keep up to date with all of these world events, but the more you read, the more you have no idea what's the best move.
Tracking #85660 -//- PIP 35.29% Jan '21
Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus

chi7834a
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:26 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by chi7834a »

Can anyone tell me how the strategies found on this site can average 20+ percent for years and the year I start using them I get screwed. Can anyone enlighten me please!

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by tspwizard1 »

Trump is terrible for the stock market. All gains are gone. Democrats will have to fix the recession he is about to cause. Hide in G until he is impeached or until 2020 election results. If you're not hiding in G, you are just playing roulette. And with a delay of a day to enter or leave market how smart is that move?

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by nrialto »

chi7834a wrote:Can anyone tell me how the strategies found on this site can average 20+ percent for years and the year I start using them I get screwed. Can anyone enlighten me please!
Did you follow it since January 1st? I didn't start following mine until about May. If I had started from the beginning of the year, I would have had the full 12.19% gain the plan has for the year, because the bulk of my losses were in January (when the plan was in G).

sonofnthng; I see your profile shows Poughkeepsie: quick joke for you...

Two travelers are in a diner arguing about how you pronounce the name of the town they're in. First guy says, "I'm telling you, its Puh-kip-see." Second guy says, "No, I'm pretty sure it's pronounced Po-keep-see." After a bit more arguing, they finally ask the waitress, "Ma'am, can you tell us how to pronounce the name of the place we're in. "She says, "Yeah. Bob's Diner."

Thank you. Good night!

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by Scarfinger »

chi7834a wrote:Can anyone tell me how the strategies found on this site can average 20+ percent for years and the year I start using them I get screwed. Can anyone enlighten me please!
I could be wrong but I believe it has to do with the standard Deviation.

Also these are averages, considering you just started. You don't have any good data to average out this bad year.

And! Like they always say... "Past performance isn't a guarantee of future performance."

My advice: Either leave it in, don't touch it and only add to it...

Or, Follow a seasonal strategy. Why? Because it is better than guessing.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by sonofnthng »

Nrialto that's classic. I'm pretty sure it's pooptitsie, but either way, update the diner to acropolis or something that's open. =)
Tracking #85660 -//- PIP 35.29% Jan '21
Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: The Next Two Weeks

Post by nrialto »

Based on the currently declining market, I'm working on a strategy for 2019 that is fairly conservative. So far, from 2004-2018, only four months have two negative returns (the rest have 1 or none).

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=56062&years=04-18

Std Dev: 8.75
CAGR: 25.34

If anyone is aware of a plan that has no negative months for Jul-Oct, please feel free to pass it along, and I'll try and incorporate it and let everyone know what I come up with.

Edit: No negative months for September now:

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=56079&years=04-18

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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