My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forward...

[mmmmmbeer]

Boom... +1.21% today!

+14.79% there abouts on the year!

Today I didn't even have to use my AK...

[mmmmmbeer]

Another +0.27% puts us at around +15.10% ona year...

Crazy... even if we can average 1% the rest of the year... puts us on a 25% year... man I'd love that... but... let's dream a little dream and hope for one of those daily strat +40% PIE in the SKY years brothers!

[mmmmmbeer]

First test of my daily is coming on COB Tursday... headed to the F fund until the last trading day of the month...

[Savage]

Yep, strategy #57171 is up over 15% so far this year. I hope it plays out the way you hope it does. But in my opinion it's an outlier. It's easy to promote the strategy that's currently on fire. But as of right now, #57171 has basically been S-fund buy and hold so far this year. I really hope it works out. I just see this as the exception, not the norm when it comes to tspcalc strategies. Let's just think about this for a moment...if the S-fund was down by 15% YTD in 2019, would it be wise to jump into the F-fund next week? These things look fantastic in hindsight, and the ones doing well this year look nice too. But some of the decisions that will have to be made in order to follow it to a "T" just defy logic. I know the argument though, "if I had followed my plan last year, I would have done better than I did by deviating." Okay. I get it. Really, I get it. Again, I hope everyone following one of these daily strategies prospers. They're just not for me.

[mmmmmbeer]

Yep, strategy #57171 is up over 15% so far this year. I hope it plays out the way you hope it does. But in my opinion it's an outlier. It's easy to promote the strategy that's currently on fire. But as of right now, #57171 has basically been S-fund buy and hold so far this year. I really hope it works out. I just see this as the exception, not the norm when it comes to tspcalc strategies. Let's just think about this for a moment...if the S-fund was down by 15% YTD in 2019, would it be wise to jump into the F-fund next week? These things look fantastic in hindsight, and the ones doing well this year look nice too. But some of the decisions that will have to be made in order to follow it to a "T" just defy logic. I know the argument though, "if I had followed my plan last year, I would have done better than I did by deviating." Okay. I get it. Really, I get it. Again, I hope everyone following one of these daily strategies prospers. They're just not for me.

Guess we'll see for sure... I'll let everyone know the highs and lows this year.

[Octjan2]

First test of my daily is coming on COB Tursday... headed to the F fund until the last trading day of the month...

This could work out pretty good for you. Stocks are due for a pause at best and decline at worst. It is very rare to see index funds drop 20% and flip on a dime to all time highs. Over 90% of the time they at least make an attempt to test the lows. However, we have never had a president this obsessed with the stock market. So every attempt will be made to push out positive (some say fake) news to alleviate concerns. All the fake news can/will eventually backfire though. You can only tell people the China deal is coming along great so many times before even the most naive investor begins to call bull****.

[tsartele]

Sooooo... big question on Dec 30th... If you were to have stuck with your original Daily Strat... from Jan 1 of last year... where would you be right now?

I'd be the first to admit... come March... I got spooked and started trying to guess the market. It was the dumbest move I could have done and I did it.

If I would have stuck with my daily strategy i started with back in Jan 2018, I think I would have been about 7% better there abouts... Beating the C fund by about +2.5%

I had actually switched at the end of March and started loosely following the #45545... and by loosely I mean if my gut told me to deviate I did. Again... I'm stupid.. and keep showing everyone that. If I would have just stuck with that one... Well... I'd be about +15% higher than I am now... and positive for the year.

So.... lesson learned for me in a big way...

A few days ago I started researching what did well this year... compared to past years...

Look at 57171. I made that the other day. Thinking... okay, like last year we didn't have a Santa Clause ralley, quite the opposite in fact. I think we'll have a good January as people want to be back in the market making money. I want to be in all S come Jan...
So I tweaked a different strat..and I'm not scared of the F no more as it's settled way down... so..

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171&years=04-18

Before 2018... it averaged 31.77%, std dev 10.24

With 2018 included 31.42% and 9.97 std dev

That being said folks... I think the year of 2019 will not be a repeat of me trying to outguess the market. I'm going to follow a plan and stick with it thick or thin.

I'd suggest you do the same... weather that be a daily strat, a monthly strat, or a buy and hold the C and never look at it again.

[mmmmmbeer]

Feb's PIP turn around should be pretty nice:

Feb 18: -2.85%
Feb 19: +4.40%

[Octjan2]

Feb's PIP turn around should be pretty nice:

Feb 18: -2.85%
Feb 19: +4.40%

If a trade deal is made around the time you go to the I fund in April, a case could be made for you to have 50% gains this year. I’m rooting for you. I still don’t believe in daily seasonals and will never follow one again, but I think you came up with a brilliant strategy to begin this year. It could end badly, but like I said, I’m rooting for you to break records this year. As for me, I guess I’ll stay put in G and wait for an elusive correction that won’t come unless I relent and dive in head first. I’m what the Wall Street guys call “dumb money” and until the dumb money invests they will keep the good times going.

[mmmmmbeer]

Feb's PIP turn around should be pretty nice:

Feb 18: -2.85%
Feb 19: +4.40%

If a trade deal is made around the time you go to the I fund in April, a case could be made for you to have 50% gains this year. I’m rooting for you. I still don’t believe in daily seasonals and will never follow one again, but I think you came up with a brilliant strategy to begin this year. It could end badly, but like I said, I’m rooting for you to break records this year. As for me, I guess I’ll stay put in G and wait for an elusive correction that won’t come unless I relent and dive in head first. I’m what the Wall Street guys call “dumb money” and until the dumb money invests they will keep the good times going.

Man... wouldn't 50% just be insane... heck.. I'll take anything over where I am! Haha...

I am a semi believer in the daily seasonals. Too many of the strats went from a 14 year run of 25%+ years to negative last year. So... I dunno. It also happened we ran into the worst 4th quarter in like what... 80 some years?

I do know some guys stuck with theirs and still got >20% or more last year. I know guys who half assed it and still got positive on the year.

I told myself this year I'm just going to stick with it for real and see what happens. No flip flopping... no jumping around... just give it a legitimate shot.

YOU dude.. need to go 50/50 C & S and not look at it again. Get out of that G fund bro... ride the next crash.

I lost $47,000 in the 4th quarter of 2018. I've gained it all back and then some this quarter already. Ride it out instead of trying to catch a lightning bolt.

[Octjan2]

I’ll get back in there at some point. Waiting to see if the S&P can close and remain above the 2800-2850 level. This could still be a bear market rally(although that consensus is getting less common). I would rather miss gains than get caught up in another 10-20% loss after buying in at 10% above where I sold. Been there and done that and will do my best to not let it happen again.

[mmmmmbeer]

So uhh... if the rest Mar - Dec hits it's average this year the 57171 is on pace for +44%'ish Haha!

[mmmmmbeer]

Well boys... if today holds (big if with the I fund)... we pass the buy and hold with the 57171 anyway.

Hopefully it's just the beginning....

There is always a nervousness for the next 3 odd hours...

Right now the 57171 is behind the S fund -0.66%

Today the EFA is showing a +0.84% gain on the S... but really who the heck knows? I've learned no way to guess how the I fund returns.

[mmmmmbeer]

Well... looks like we got them... with compounding

https://beta.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?I ... nchmarks=S

Daily Seasonals lead the pack!

[wdd09]

I follow #25727 (a monthly seasonal) and have been for the last year with my personal account. It's beating buy and hold this calendar year by almost 2.53%!