2019 Push, Pull & Strength

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Monday February 4, 2019 Everything came up more, except the F fund.
As I told a friend, I have been kicking myself for not staying with the PUSH (turned up on the 14th, and still going higher). Certainly no one expected a continuation this long without a pullback. In the past I have made the mistake of giving in just as the market decides, too much is too much.

If in stocks, what would I do? I did a good look at all the charts this morning. Even as I scan the shadows for possible nasty things, I don’t see a plausible reason to not be in stocks now.

But consider that there may be positive outcome to a transfer to the C or S now, I think there is a 50/50 chance we may be about to jag back down. And the TSP is so slow about getting you in, and back out. I like waiting on a near bottom buy.

I may regret it later, but I’m sitting out until this wave capitulates.

DATE PUSH PULL

1/25 6.47 6.49
1/28 6.48 6.51
1/29 6.48 6.50
1/30 6.49 6.55
1/31 6.51 6.59
2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday February 5, 2019

DATE PUSH PULL
1/28 6.48 6.51
1/29 6.48 6.50
1/30 6.49 6.55
1/31 6.51 6.59
2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Wednesday February 6, 2019

Well stock prices relaxed some. After five up-days in a row, that’s not really unexpected.

DATE PUSH PULL
1/29 6.48 6.50
1/30 6.49 6.55
1/31 6.51 6.59
2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Thursday February 7, 2019

Push (intermediate trend) still has up-slope. Pull (short trend) had a sizeable drop. Market weakness is emerging.

DATE PUSH PULL
1/30 6.49 6.55
1/31 6.51 6.59
2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Tomi.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Friday February 8, 2019
Not much commentary except to say, I think stocks are going down, and bonds up.
DATE PUSH PULL
1/31 6.51 6.59
2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61
2 / 8 6.64 6.26

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Monday February 11, 2019
Push still bumping up, 0.02 per day for a while.
Pull came in the same as Friday.
F fund Strength is the highest of the TSP funds.
C & I funds showing more weakness.
S fund came in slightly up.

DATE PUSH PULL

2 / 1 6.53 6.62
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61
2 / 8 6.64 6.26
2 /11 6.66 6.26

[rcozby]

Tomany, your colorful analysis is noted & appreciated!

[michigande]

I'd be interested in your guy's take on this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/investo ... rally.html

[Billionair]

I'd be interested in your guy's take on this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/investo ... rally.html

Interesting article, and kind of speaks where my mind is at. I don't see things happening with China soon, and we got rocked by good news with the FED. But we have gained 16% in the Index, in such a short time, the pullback will be severe. Also Q1:19 earnings will be skewed with the shutdowns and profits.

China trade will dictate 2019 and its markets. Everything involving earnings and investments follows that. I'd say G/F until up to meetings, then evaluate 1-2 days before and go for the S/C on the chance it goes through. Trump needs a win on trade. NAFTA has to pass Congress, as well as any new trade deal. Hopefully the shutdown is averted to focus on what really matters. China has dictated the market a lot of 2018 as well as the Fed. 50% to a real rally.

*edit* potential game changer with China.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4296 ... with-china

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday February 12, 2019
Push still bumping up, 0.02 per day for a while.
Pull came up 0.23 from Monday.
F fund Strength came down.
All the stock funds came up.

DATE PUSH PULL
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61
2 / 8 6.64 6.26
2 /11 6.66 6.26
2 /12 6.68 6.50

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Wednesday February 13, 2019

Push up another 0.02 for the day.
Pull came up 0.19 from Tuesday.
F fund Strength down more.
Stock funds continue ascend.

DATE PUSH PULL
2 / 4 6.55 6.68
2 / 5 6.57 6.72
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61
2 / 8 6.64 6.26
2 /11 6.66 6.26
2 /12 6.68 6.50
2 /13 6.70 6.69

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Thursday February 14, 2019
Push up another +0.02 for the day.
Pull only came up +0.06 on Thursday.
Strength of stock funds still up, F fund unassuming.

DATE PUSH PULL
2 / 6 6.60 6.73
2 / 7 6.62 6.61
2 / 8 6.64 6.26
2 /11 6.66 6.26
2 /12 6.68 6.50
2 /13 6.70 6.69
2 /14 6.72 6.75

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Friday February 15, 2019
Everything was up, so we must be about to go down.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday February 19, 2019
The F fund Strength is climbing, while the 3 stock funds become embedded around the 9.5 line. That scenario has happened two other times on this chart, which resulted in stock prices dipping.