Is now the time to get in?

[tspguy15]

I have been in G fund since start of December and think I may move to all C or S on Monday due to trade negotiations and strong job data today. Seem like a good idea?

[Scarfinger]

Honestly no one knows.

There will likely be some back and forth and if it is truly the time to get in.... You won't know until a bottom forms in the future. Supported by higher highs and higher lows eventually. Or you get lucky and it just shoots up from here.

I am curious to see if this is another sell the bounce moment.

[TSP Jedi]

my work says it’s time to get out of stocks

[Scarfinger]

Trends are usually classified into three categories: major, secondary, and minor. A major trend lasts more than a year; a secondary trend, from one to three months; and a minor trend, usually a couple of weeks or less. Push is a secondary trend indicator.

Push is not just a moving average, it incorporates momentum (energy) and volume (power).
Note the flattening in January, just before the big drop in Febuary.

Push's flow over the past year had a few small wobbles, but would have captured most of the gains. And most importantly, would not have ended the year in the red.


Today’s reading of the Push: Medium-term to long-term outlook for stocks is down. You need a good reason to buy into this market. The odds of making a successful C, S or I fund foray is not good. It is possible, but with the TSP system it's not in your favor.

Not favorable per above

[wingchaser]

I have been in G fund since start of December and think I may move to all C or S on Monday due to trade negotiations and strong job data today. Seem like a good idea?

The MACD (12,26,9), which is not the accelerated metric that a lot of TSPcenter members employ, but is the original/default version that has a "lag" associated with it, is about to cross it's signal line...

Two (2) observations, if I may, the MACD significantly crossed it's signal line three (3) times in the last (albeit) challenging 12 months:

5-Apr-18
9-Jul-18
31-Oct-18

and in each of those instances, the returns were 4% or more (short-term). The final observation is with the "lag" of the Default MACD, with which I'm totally comfortable with because it lends itself to a confirmation period of successive UP days prior to an IFT.

Having said this, I'm (more than) hesitant to move out of my comfort zone (G Fund) in this volatile market. I still have 43.47 minutes to make a final determination...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[Octjan2]

How bout that S Fund. I know that usually, but not always, after a big downturn like we have seen, an index will retrace around 50% of it's losses before the big shots on Wall Street decide to take it back down to test the lows. They wait for most of the retail investors to think the sky is all clear and jump in. I have that 50% level on the S fund to be somewhere around the 1233 level. It is around 1215 as of 12:28 PM....so approximately 1 or 2 more %. I may go to G once/if I see it reach that level, but with the Fed seemingly being accommodative now, trade talks coming Monday and Tuesday, and the jobs report today basically making a laughing stock of anybody on Wall Street screaming rescission, I may stay.

[TopNotch]

Octjan, there is a good video on youtube for the S&P illustrating what you are explaining. Worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZETc5ulyKRI

[rcozby]

Octjan, there is a good video on youtube for the S&P illustrating what you are explaining. Worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZETc5ulyKRI

Nice work - points for sharing. Thanks!

[michigande]

With Powell's comments today and the positive seasonality is it time to "get in" the F fund, or do I misinterpret?

[Shadowbend]

Jan: S Fund. Jul: C Fund
Feb: S Fund. Aug: F Fund
Mar: C Fund. Sept: F Fund
Apr: C Fund. Oct: C Fund
May: C Fund. Nov: C Fund
Jun: F Fund. Dec: S Fund

I’m going to stick with the plan this year!

[seabass]

topnotch-thankyou so much for sharing that video!!!!!!!!!!

[jimcasada]

Actually, I was thinking of switching to -G- Monday. I don't trust this market to stay up over a couple days at time. It used to be like 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Now It's like 1 step forward, 3 steps back.

[visual18]

Get out today 1/8. We will see new low before ramp up.

[jimcasada]

I just switch back to -G-

[tspguy15]

Been 50/50 C & S since I asked the question... no complaints. Earnings will be good next week and the wall will be funded soon.
(https://seekingalpha.com/news/3420912-n ... ll-midwest)

The S Fund will earn the day the fed passes it.

Also nothing from FED and J Powell until end of January.... In the words of Al Bundy
"Let's Rock" and "MAGA"