Strong seasonality of late January

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
michigande
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:51 pm

Strong seasonality of late January

Post by michigande »

After a long run of positive days back to back, I consulted several dailies that I'm currently guided by. Most begin January in either G or F, but on January 17th or 18th move to S until about January 28th. Looks like a short period of seasonal strength to me, so I checked those approximate dates back to the beginning and here's what I got for that short time period:

'18 +1.56
'17 +1.04
'16 +.52 (included two peaks above 2%)
'15 +.9

'14 -2.49
'13 +1.82
'12 +1.89

'11 -2.89
'10 -4.92

'09 +8.58 - holy crap
'08 +4.35 - same as above
'07 +1.49
'06 +2.31

'05 - ?

average return of 1.08 and 77% of the time positive returns for the period. 13 positive to 3 negative - the negatives were really big though. The positive years only average +2.45. I thought it was impressive enough to share.

I'd love to hear thoughts on this, current indicators versus indicators at the time of these examples, perhaps? I'm too sleepy to see if next week has a historic crushing low to offset the upside...

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Tomanyiron »

michigande wrote:I'd love to hear thoughts on this, current indicators versus indicators at the time of these examples, perhaps? I'm too sleepy to see if next week has a historic crushing low to offset the upside...
It's too early in the morning for me to do much hard thinking, (the dog woke me up). But sitting here drinking my coffee, I thought of something, is it a cyclic thing?

1- The most predictable rally of the year is the Santa Rally.

2- After every rally there is a pullback.

3- After pullbacks, another rally occurs.

4- There was no Santa Rally in 2018, more of a Baby New Year’s Rally. Image

5- So if the rallying cycle got delayed a few weeks, could the first of Jan pullback be more toward the end of Jan?

Look at the off years, see what anomalies might have occurred at that time. I did a quick look at 2014, and I see where the after Santa Rally pullback was delayed until Jan 23rd.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Octjan2 »

Last year most of us following daily seasonals bought in late January at all time highs and soon thereafter lost 12% within a few weeks. Don’t just jump into or out of the market because a daily seasonal indicates you should. This is your retirement.

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by jlozano042 »

Awesome insight here guys, ammo for me to consider my second move sometime this month.

User avatar
danho
Posts: 29
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:25 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by danho »

I have been seeing the same thing around the 17th/18th. Any idea what historically happens around that time to have the dailies switch? And then go back?

Just trying to understand if there is a market trigger and not follow blindly...

Shadowbend
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:04 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Shadowbend »

Earning reports are coming out, correct?
I’ve also been reading where this year “looks” like 2009 (seems legit). Expecting a test of the lows in Feb and then higher highs (S&P 17%).

just my opinion from what I’m reading/watching......

Chindsey
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:52 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Chindsey »

Seasonal strategy # 60655 has me doing exactly that.

I plan on going 50S/50G January 18th - 28th.

- Chindsey

User avatar
Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Billionair »

I think we’re going to have a re-test of the lows here. After today, seasonality can’t be a thing due to the government shutdown. It’s beginning to show everywhere the longer it goes on. Especially, since seasonally we’ve been wrong since October about a lot, now we have a very poor earnings season. I think we got january’s Rally, we just got it earlier. Tomany hit it with the New Years rally. I mean we were up 14% on the S and we’re going to have pullback, and we hit a wall at 2600 in the S/P. I think the wiser thing is to be patient and rebuy the new low. I don’t foresee long rallies like 2018, much more cyclical in nature the market is.

And we saw Feb2018 take a big dive. Atleast we started off very strong. But I rode through the huge October loss, so I’m going to definitely miss the first big buying day. My strat says stay in S till the end of this week, and I knew better last Thursday.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

mango72
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:44 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by mango72 »

Billionair wrote:I think we’re going to have a re-test of the lows here. After today, seasonality can’t be a thing due to the government shutdown. It’s beginning to show everywhere the longer it goes on. Especially, since seasonally we’ve been wrong since October about a lot, now we have a very poor earnings season. I think we got january’s Rally, we just got it earlier. Tomany hit it with the New Years rally. I mean we were up 14% on the S and we’re going to have pullback, and we hit a wall at 2600 in the S/P. I think the wiser thing is to be patient and rebuy the new low. I don’t foresee long rallies like 2018, much more cyclical in nature the market is.

And we saw Feb2018 take a big dive. Atleast we started off very strong. But I rode through the huge October loss, so I’m going to definitely miss the first big buying day. My strat says stay in S till the end of this week, and I knew better last Thursday.

I dont like current events (shutdown, world econ, bank earnings) and future events (mueller investigation) will potentially have a negative impact on the market in the coming weeks. I went to G today but should have Friday IMO. Im out till Feb. or the next buying opportunity, whichever comes first.

User avatar
Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Billionair »

Interesting to note today's strong performance in the C, and more semblance of balance in the market (atleast for the short term). I see more buying as well. Hard to tell with current charts by Tomany, and the news, as his bullish meter says buy and do it.

I guess my risky sell is still thinking that we haven't reached a lower low yet to get back in and buy.
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

michigande
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:51 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by michigande »

Since making a move to the C fund today, I did a similar set of numbers for the S&P of that approximate time frame, thought I'd share:

'18 +1.84 (on 1/29, was as high as +2.5 if exited on 1/26)
'17 +1.21
'16 +.68

'15 -.98 (went as high as +2)
'14 -2.49

'13 +1.32
'12 +.67

'11 -1.41
'10 -5.68

'09 +8.57
'08 +2.14

'07 -.38
'06 +.58

Total average was +.47, the average of just the positive years was +2.43 and at 5 of 13 years being in the red, the time frame returned positive 62% of the time. Much less historically encouraging than the S fund... fingers crossed!

michigande
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:51 pm

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by michigande »

And the results are in.

1/17 to 1/28 +.81% for the S Fund and +.17% for the C Fund

1/18 to 1/28, what a difference a day makes, -.34% for the S Fund and -1.14% for the C Fund.

Interesting.

Another period of seasonal strength is approaching, according to several of those same dailies, they spend 2/12 - 2/18 in either C or S before returning to the G. As with the past week, doesn't mean a blind jump in for me personally, but I'll strongly factor that seasonal strength in along with current events and indicators.

User avatar
Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Strong seasonality of late January

Post by Billionair »

^^ Correct all around. I think the "rally," will stem from the China discussions that happen tomorrow and Friday. FED is looking to keep rates the same as they are, not much impact on the market this time. If we have a productive China talk, we can see a test of new highs, or a test of december lows if the talks are not productive!
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".