Seasonal Musings 2019

[Aitrus]

Thanks for the kudos, rockets007. Much appreciated.

Seasonal Strategy Results for April 2019

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.21%, 0.87% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Apr Total CAGR = 0.40%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.28%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.19%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

The G Fund had a decent return this month. The G Fund has now had a straight run of 17 months with 0.20% or better returns. At this point, the G Fund is -0.01% behind of where it was this time last year. If the trend keeps up, then the G Fund should end up somewhere around last year’s return of 2.93%. 2018’s return was 0.23%.

F Fund: 0.02%, 2.98% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 0.37%, PNR 66%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 0.35%, PNR 65%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 80%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 0.04%, PNR 60%

April is historically a pretty dismal month of the year for the F Fund, and this year’s return barely broke even. 2018’s return was -0.73%.

C Fund: 4.05%, 18.25% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 1.75%, PNR 78%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 1.80%, PNR 75%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 1.33%, PNR 90%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 1.35%, PNR 100%

The C Fund had a really nice return this past month, the best one since 2009. April is normally the second-best month of the year for the C Fund, and this only solidifies that standing. 2018’s return was 0.38%.

S Fund: 3.69%, 20.27% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 1.54%, PNR 72%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 1.44%, PNR 65%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 1.03%, PNR 70%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 1.06%, PNR 80%

April is a solid month for the S Fund, normally the third best of the year. This year was a very respectable one, the best return since 2010. 2018’s return was 0.28%.

I Fund: 2.92%, 13.31% YTD
Apr Total CAGR = 2.52%, PNR 81%
Apr 20 year CAGR = 2.69%, PNR 75%
Apr 10 year CAGR = 2.19%, PNR 80%
Apr 5 year CAGR = 2.71%, PNR 100%

April is hands-down the best month of the year for the I Fund. The high average return means that this year’s nearly 3% return was actually only a little bit above average for this time of year. This also makes it 7 straight years in a row that the I Fund has been positive in April, a feat surpassed only two other times in the I Fund’s history: Dec 1988 – Dec 1995 (8 years), and Apr 1991 – Apr 1999 (9 years). 2018’s return was 2.01%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Apr (4.05%), 12.55% YTD, PIP 1.43%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Apr (2.92%), 11.33% YTD, PIP -0.90%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Apr (4.05%), 7.43% YTD, PIP -0.55%
tmj100’s Mix: I Fund in Apr (2.92%), 6.25% YTD, PIP -4.36%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Apr (3.69%), 3.66% YTD, PIP 0.57%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: I Fund in Apr (2.92%), 2.89% YTD, PIP 1.00%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Apr (4.05%), 18.25% YTD, PIP 3.53%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Apr (0.21%), 0.87% YTD

Everybody made some good gains this month, and a couple broke into double digit territory this month. A few PIPs also went positive as well. One more month of springs earning season left before we hit the summer doldrums. Let’s hope things hang on just a little longer.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[Horaenaut]

I'm feeling less confident about spring gains this month...

[Aitrus]

For June 2019
Last chance to move: Friday, 31 May before noon EST
For this coming June, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.40%
Last 20 years: 0.29%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

June is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2018 return was 0.24%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.59%, PNR 65%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.24%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.10%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.13%, PNR 40%

June isn’t a good month for the F Fund. The PNR’s are so-so, and the CAGRs are likewise nothing stellar. Still, at this time of year, it’s better to bet on a horse that has more finishes than one that comes up lame more often than not.

The best years were 1989 (3.19%), 2000 (2.07%) and 1988 (1.97%). The worst years were 2013 (-1.53%), 2015 (-1.53%) and 1999 (-0.33%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.20%, PNR 58%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.59%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.25%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.32%, PNR 80%

June is pretty much the worst month of the year for the C Fund.

The best years were 1999 (5.54%), 1997 (4.45%) and 2012 (4.13%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.41%), 2002 (-7.10%) and 2010 (-5.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.38%, PNR 58%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.42%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.01%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.34%, PNR 60%

June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but at least it’s not as bad as the C or I Funds.

The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 1988 (6.17%) and 1995 (4.82%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.74%, PNR 42%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.43%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.66%, PNR 20%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.32%, PNR 20%

June is the second worst month for the year for the I Fund.

The best years were 2012 (7.08%), 1997 (5.39%), and 1999 (3.78%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.15%), 1991 (-7.48%), and 1992 (-4.90%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for June 2019.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the G Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All of the Mixes move to safety for June. Smart move, considering the history of the market at the beginning of summer.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for May 2019

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.21%, 1.09% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
May Total CAGR = 0.41%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.29%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.20%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

The G Fund had a decent return this month. The G Fund has now had a straight run of 18 months with 0.20% or better returns. At this point, the G Fund is -0.04% behind of where it was this time last year. If the trend keeps up, then the G Fund should end up somewhere around last year’s return of 2.93%. 2018’s return was 0.24%.

F Fund: 1.77%, 4.80% YTD
May Total CAGR = 0.64%, PNR 66%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.43%, PNR 65%
May 10 year CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 80%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.62%, PNR 80%

May is normally a so-so month for the F Fund. This year, however, was a very good one. This was the sixth best return on record, and the best May return since 2003. 2018’s return was 0.73%.

C Fund: -6.36%, 10.73% YTD
May Total CAGR = 1.11%, PNR 72%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.20%, PNR 65%
May 10 year CAGR = -1.07%, PNR 60%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.06%, PNR 80%

May is normally a borderline strong month for the C Fund. This year, however, was a horrendous one. 2019’s May return is the second worst on record, behind 2010’s return of -7.99% and ahead of 2012’s -5.99%. Of note, however, was that 2012 was the last negative year for the C Fund in May. Because all three of the really bad years: 2010, 2012 and 2019 were all within the last decade, the 10 year CAGR is now severely negative as a result. 2018’s return was 2.41%.

S Fund: -6.99%, 11.87% YTD
May Total CAGR = 0.97%, PNR 63%
May 20 year CAGR = 0.22%, PNR 60%
May 10 year CAGR = -1.17%, PNR 50%
May 5 year CAGR = 0.07%, PNR 60%

The S Fund normally is just kinda so-so in May, and this year it really got walloped like the rest of the market did. This was the third worst year on record for the S Fund in May, behind 2010 (-7.51%) and 2000 (-7.38%). The previous third worst year was 2012 at -6.91%. 2018’s return was 4.85%.

I Fund: -4.69%, 8.00% YTD
May Total CAGR = -0.39%, PNR 44%
May 20 year CAGR = -0.96%, PNR 45%
May 10 year CAGR = -3.13%, PNR 30%
May 5 year CAGR = -0.68%, PNR 40%

This year the I Fund had a negative result in May, not really a surprise. May is a pretty bad month, easily in the worst three months of the year. It does, however, result in the first time I’ve ever seen a negative CAGR of over -3% for any Fund at any month / timeframe. That’s a new one for me. 2018’s return was -2.13%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in May (-6.36%), 5.39% YTD, PIP -7.25%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in May (-6.36%), 4.25% YTD, PIP -9.38%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in May (-6.36%), 0.60% YTD, PIP -9.06%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in May (-6.36%), -0.50% YTD, PIP -12.55%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in May (-6.99%), -3.59% YTD, PIP -10.78%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: C Fund in May (-6.36%), -3.66% YTD, PIP -7.65%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in May (0.21%), 18.50% YTD, PIP 3.49%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in May (0.21%), 1.09% YTD

The spring earning’s season that had been going well thus far in 2019 certainly ended with a bang, but it wasn’t the good kind of bang. More like the kind you hear at intersections when somebody runs a red light during rush hour. Everybody who was in stocks took a big hit. A couple of Mixes are still solidly in the green, and others have slipped back into negative territory. Everybody’s PIPs took a hit as well.

[Aitrus]

For July 2019
Last chance to move: Friday, 28 June before noon EST
For this coming July, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.32%
Last 10 years: 0.20%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

July is hands down the best month for the G Fund. The 2018 return was 0.25%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.73%, PNR 77%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.55%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.74%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.33%, PNR 80%

July is certainly the best or second-best month of the year for the F Fund, depending on whether you look at PNRs or CAGRs. Either way, it’s pretty good.

The best years were 1997 (2.69%), 2001 (2.22%) and 1989 (2.06%). The worst years were 2003 (-2.51%), 2005 (-0.84%) and 1988 (-0.49%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.22%, PNR 55%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.66%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.88%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.02%, PNR 80%

The C Fund is always a bit of a gamble in July. The CAGRs are good, for the most part, and recent years have good PNRs. In the long run the positive returns outweigh the so-so PNRs by quite a bit, but the number of years that it comes up negative are close to 50/50

The best years were 1989 (8.83%), 1997 (7.94%) and 2009 (7.58%). The worst years were 2002 (-7.70%), 1996 (-4.39%) and 2004 (-3.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.24%, PNR 48%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.19%, PNR 40%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.15%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 60%

If the C Fund has enough good years to overturn the bad PNRs, those gains don’t reach over to the S Fund. This is arguably the second worst month of the year for the Fund.

The best years were 2009 (8.66%), 2010 (7.00%) and 1997 / 2013 (tied at 6.88%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.93%), 1996 (-7.51%) and 1998 (-5.66%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.42%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.83%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.45%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.08%, PNR 80%

If you want to invest in stocks in July and don’t mind using the I Fund, then these data points should be considered. July is actually not bad for the I Fund. It’s close to completely meeting the “good” standard, and outperforms the C Fund a bit over the long term. I would place it somewhere round the third or fourth best month of the year for the I Fund.

The best years were 1989 (12.45%), 2010 (10.78%), and 2009 (9.74%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.99%), 2000 (-4.29%), and 2004 (-3.76%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for July 2019.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the C Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

Almost all of the Mixes move to either the C or I Funds, with a few playing it safe.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[ndy856]

So what Strategy ID is best to follow 2019 and 2020? Holding time will be 30+ years till early 2050s

[LazyScot]

So what Strategy ID is best to follow 2019 and 2020? Holding time will be 30+ years till early 2050s

Did you read the first bunch of Aitrus' posts? The information you need to make that decision for yourself is in those posts. No one else can decide for you.

[Aitrus]

So what Strategy ID is best to follow 2019 and 2020? Holding time will be 30+ years till early 2050s

Thanks for the question. The Strategy IDs that are presented on TSPCalc.com are not of my creation. I have no official opinion on which one would be best. The TSPCalc IDs use daily returns, while the method discussed in this thread uses monthly returns. The principle is the same, but I have no recommendation to give you.

[Aitrus]

A quick note before beginning this month's posting. I decided to start including the 12-month PIP for each of the core Funds that TSP uses. These are the CAGR-calculated PIPs as presented on their monthly return page, and are calculated in the same the way as our personal PIPs. I figured that it would be a good idea to provide these so that you can compare your past 12 months with that of the Funds if you so desire.

Let me know what you guys think - keep them, or toss 'em?

Seasonal Strategy Results for June 2019

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.19%, 1.28% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jun Total CAGR = 0.40%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.28%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.18%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.19%
12-month PIP: 2.82%

The G Fund had an average return this month. The G Fund broke a straight run of 18 months with 0.20% or better returns, the longest run for returns that good since the 00’s. At this point, the G Fund is -0.09% behind of where it was this time last year. If the trend keeps up, then the G Fund should end up a bit below last year’s return of 2.93%. 2018’s return was 0.24%.

F Fund: 1.26%, 6.12% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = 0.61%, PNR 66%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.32%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.17%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.35%, PNR 40%
12-month PIP: 7.96%

May is normally a pretty bland month for the F Fund, however, this year was a very good one at about twice as good as normal. 2018’s return was -0.10%.

C Fund: 7.04%, 18.53% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = 0.01%, PNR 59%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.52%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.40%, PNR 60%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 1.28%, PNR 80%
12-month PIP: 10.40%

June is normally a pretty bad month for the C Fund, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at this year’s return. The C Fund’s tracked index, the S&P 500, had its best month since 1938 when it gained 24.3% in June of that year. Needless to say, we shouldn’t expect to see returns like this often. The next highest return in the C Fund’s history was 1999, when it returned 5.54%. The last year that there was a return above 3% was 2012’s return of 4.13%. 2018’s return was 0.61%.

S Fund: 6.80%, 19.47% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = 0.58%, PNR 59%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.55%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.59%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 1.80%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 2.11%

The S Fund is normally pretty “meh” in June, but it took a ride on the C Fund’s coattails this year to earn some very nice numbers. This is the second best June return for the S Fund, with 2000’s return of 12.01% the best by far. The third best return was 1988 with 6.17%. 2018’s return was 0.86%.

I Fund: 5.94%, 14.41% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = -0.53%, PNR 44%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.32%, PNR 45%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.02%, PNR 30%
Jun 5 year CAGR = -0.37%, PNR 20%
12-month PIP: 1.53%

June is absolutely horrible for the I Fund, but the year it bucked the trend along with the rest of the Funds. The I Fund has now broken a June negative streak of 4 years in a row. This year’s return of 5.94% is the second-best return in the I Fund’s history, with only 2012’s return of 7.08% keeping the top spot, and 1997’s 5.39% return dropping to third best. 2018’s return was -1.20%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Jun (1.26%), 6.72% YTD, PIP -5.99%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Jun (1.26%), 5.56% YTD, PIP -8.15%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jun (1.26%), 1.86% YTD, PIP -7.83%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Jun (1.26%), 0.75% YTD, PIP -11.36%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Jun (1.26%), -2.37% YTD, PIP -9.57%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: G Fund in Jun (0.19%), -3.47% YTD, PIP -7.70%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jun (0.19%), 18.73% YTD, PIP 3.44%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jun (0.19%), 1.28% YTD

This month everybody did well in the F Fund in that they more than doubled the expected monthly F “good month” standard return of 0.5%. However, everybody also missed out on some rare June returns the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long time. The trend is so strong at this time of year that everybody was in either the F or G Funds. That said, this single month is not enough cause to throw out the seasonal mindset – the historical PNRs and CAGRs haven’t been affected all that much, and each Mix’s goal of getting at least 0.5% in June was met. June could certainly have been much worse, and has done so often enough to drag PNRs and CAGRs into negative territory with regularity.

[Chindsey]

Chindsey’s Mix #1: F Fund in Jun (0.19%)?

I believe you accidentally swapped in the G Fund's return for the F Fund's (1.26%).

[Aitrus]

Doh! No, the return is right, I just messed up and said that the Mix uses F in June. It uses G. Thanks for the catch, I'll fix the post.

[Aitrus]

For August 2019
Last chance to move: Wednesday, 31 July before noon EST
For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

August is arguably the second best month for the G Fund. The 2018 return was 0.26%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.67%, PNR 71%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.83%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.58%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.49%, PNR 60%

August is a pretty solid month for the F Fund. Arguably the second or third best month of the year, depending on the time frame you’re looking at.

The best years were 1991 (2.12%), 2004 (1.88%) and 1993 (1.72%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.65%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.03%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.60%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 80%

The C Fund has the worst time of the entire year in August and September, with the two months often fighting over who is worse.

The best years were 2000 (6.19%), 1994 (4.11%) and 2014 (4.01%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.47%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.00%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.61%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.60%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.75%, PNR 60%

The S Fund does a little better than the C Fund in August, but that’s not saying much. It’s still nowhere near “good month” range.

The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 1996 (5.40%) and 2011 (4.98%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.58%, PNR 42%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.67%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.55%, PNR 30%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.91%, PNR 20%

August is easily hands-down the worst month of the year for the I Fund. No other month is even close to being this bad. I’m not sure about what causes this month to be so bad for overseas markets, but whatever it is, I want no part of it.

The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2009 (4.87%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for August 2019.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the F Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All the Mixes run to the F Fund for August. That alone should tell you how strong the anti-market sentiment is around this time of year, as if the stats above weren’t enough.