Seasonal Musings 2019

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

Other Mixes I’m tracking behind the scenes and won’t be positing about until the end of the year:

Skiehawk’s EMA Mix

This Mix uses a technical indicator as a stop-loss mechanism to move funds to the G Fund if the the month, similar to Jahbulon’s SMA Mix. I won’t be posting about this except for the End-of-Year Round-up.

Jan: C Fund
Feb: C Fund
Mar: C Fund
Apr: C Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: C Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: C Fund
Oct: F Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: C Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 10.23%, PNR 77% (24 of 31)
Last 20 years: CAGR 4.78%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 11.64%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 6.06%, PNR 80%

C&F Only
This Mix uses only the C and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: F Fund
Mar: C Fund
Apr: C Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: C Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: C Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 13.40%, PNR 84% (26 of 31)
Last 20 years: CAGR 10.95%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 14.12%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 8.31%, PNR 80%

S&F Only
This Mix uses only the S and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: S Fund
Mar: S Fund
Apr: S Fund
May: S Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: F Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: F Fund
Nov: S Fund
Dec: S Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 13.47%, PNR 87% (27 of 31)
Last 20 years: CAGR 10.75%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 13.06%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 7.99%, PNR 80%

I&F Only
This Mix uses only the I and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: F Fund
Mar: I Fund
Apr: I Fund
May: F Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: I Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: I Fund
Nov: F Fund
Dec: I Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 12.49%, PNR 84% (26 of 31)
Last 20 years: CAGR 11.00%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 12.68%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 5.66%, PNR 60%
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

Final thoughts to start off 2019

And that’s the system folks! It’s a simple concept, but there’s a TON of data there to sift through. Feel free to ask questions in this thread if there’s something you don’t understand or want clarification on. All things considered, I think this is a good system to follow. Remember my criteria for a good system?

1. Has positive annual returns at least 80% of the time.
2. Has consistent annual returns of at least 12% CAGR.
3. Makes sense and follows the data.

A lot of these Mixes meet those criteria, and following any of them that do would not be a bad thing in my opinion. All have data to back up their choices, and all beat buy-and-hold for those that can stomach the rough times. Some are more popular than others. The most popular ones are (in order of preference as far as I can tell) gclapper’s Mix, tmj100’s Mix, Jahbulon’s Mix and Boltman’s Mix.

In the end, this project is all about making money and having a secure retirement. If this thread helps even a few people reach that goal (myself included), then I will have considered it time well spent. I don’t get anything from doing this, other than to have other minds assess the work and point out improvements. I’m absolutely in this for the money, but I don’t get a cent for doing it. It’s kind of funny how it works out that way.

I don’t have much more to say, so I’ll leave you with this gem from one of the forum members:

“The Seasonal Strategy has its faults as do most systems. The one thing I like about the Seasonal Strategy, however, is the statistics based approach. Will it keep you from losing money? Nope...What it does give you, however, is your best chance at picking the right fund to be in at the right time based on your level of risk tolerance. You can never be 100% correct 100% of the time. But you can give yourself the best chance by using the statistics involved...you might lose some but you stand a good chance of gaining a lot more than you lose. Cheers and best of luck to you! Choose your strategy wisely!” – Chulke
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

Since I didn’t get the Seasonal Musings 2019 thread up and running until late in Jan, I’ll go ahead and post the data for the upcoming month: Feb 2019.

For February 2019
Last chance to move: Thursday, 31 January before noon EST

For this coming January, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.37%
Last 20 years: 0.28%
Last 10 years: 0.18%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

February is the worst month of the year for the G Fund. The 2018 return was 0.21%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.28%, PNR 71%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.31%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.09%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.02%, PNR 60%

February is a so-so month for the F Fund. Decent PNRs, but mediocre PNRs.

The best years were 1995 (2.38%), 1993 (1.73%) and 2007 (1.53%). The worst years were 1996 (-1.75%), 1999 (-1.74%) and 1994 (-1.72%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.44%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.45%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.09%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.04%, PNR 60%

The C Fund does so-so in February, although the last 10 years have been better than average.

The best years were 1998 (7.20%), 1991 (7.07%) and 2015 (5.75%). The worst years were 2009 (-10.64%), 2001 (-9.12%) and 2018 (-3.69%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.08%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.23%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.36%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.06%, PNR 80%

The S Fund has good CAGRs in February over the last 10 years, but it gets a bit more iffy at the 20 year mark before getting better long term.

The best years were 2000 (15.55%), 1991 (9.10%) and 1998 (7.65%). The worst years were 2001 (-12.15%), 2009 (-10.22%) and 1999 (-5.44%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.42%, PNR 58%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.13%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.12%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.92%, PNR 60%

February is a so-so month for the I Fund. There’s better choices available.

The best years were 1991 (10.56%), 1988 (6.56%), and 1998 (6.29%). The worst years were 2009 (-10.23%), 2001 (-7.50%), and 1990 (-7.09%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for February 2019.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the S Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the G Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

There’s no clearly best Fund for February, and it shows in how the Mixes seem to disagree so much. Some aim for safety, while others take the risk. Which ones will be right? That’s part of what makes this project so much fun.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Jamters
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Jamters »

That's a lot of effort - especially for someone that hasn't been feeling well. Thanks Aitrus.

rockets007
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by rockets007 »

Thank you for all the time you took to create this thread! There is so much good information in this thread!

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jdoma
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by jdoma »

Thanks for all the information! Did you by any chance run the numbers this year for the CrispyZee mix which is identical to tmj100 except for February and April? You had written about it in the past. It seemed like a pretty good mix also.

OkieTSPer
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by OkieTSPer »

Thanks again Aitrus.

Billing1
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Billing1 »

Thank you for your time and effort. I’m going to try the S fund this month... we’ll see what happens. Thanks again.

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

jdoma wrote:Thanks for all the information! Did you by any chance run the numbers this year for the CrispyZee mix which is identical to tmj100 except for February and April? You had written about it in the past. It seemed like a pretty good mix also.
Hey jdoma. Good question from somebody who's obviously followed this series of threads for a while. Thanks for sticking with me for this long.

CrispyZee's Mix was actually closer to the original version of Jahbulon's Mix, with the only change being in January. The original version of Jahbulon's Mix used S in January, and CZ's Mix used F.

A while back I changed Jahbulon's Basic Mix to use F instead S of Jan because of how the S Fund had dropped in performance over the past few years. I noted it in the 2017 version of Seasonal Musings, and discussed a time or two in other threads. I had been thinking about making the change before CZ suggested his Mix, but for a while decided to include the two and gave him credit.

In short, the change ended up making Jaby's Mix identical to CrispyZee's Mix. With CZ's permission, I just counted the two as the same thing to avoid confusion, and I now keep track of Jahbulon's Old Mix behind the scenes.

See here for a short discussion about it: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... zee#p63403

Side note: that thread also contained a handy little chart that sonofnthng created to visually track the Mixes. It still shows Jahby's Old Mix with S in Jan, but it was still a pretty cool idea that he implemented for a time.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

Thanks for all the congrats thus far, everybody. Much appreciated.

Seasonal Strategy Results for January 2019

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds

G Fund: 0.23%, 0.23% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jan Total CAGR = 0.40%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.29%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.20%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 0.20%

This was an above average start to the year for the G Fund if you are considering only the last 10 years’ worth of data. The last time there was a return this good was 0.24% in 2011. 2018’s return was 0.20%.

F Fund: 1.07%, 1.07% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.61%, PNR 78%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.59%, PNR 80%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.73%, PNR 80%
Jan 5 year CAGR = -0.75%, PNR 80%

January continues to be a solid long-term performer for the F Fund. 2018’s return was -1.14%.

C Fund: 8.01%, 8.01% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.57%, PNR 59%
Jan 20 year CAGR = -0.28%, PNR 50%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 1.17%, PNR 60%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 1.42%, PNR 60%

The C Fund has never had a January return this good in its history. The next best return was 1989 with 7.14%. 2018’s return was 5.72%.

S Fund: 11.64%, 11.64% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.97%, PNR 63%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.53%, PNR 50%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 1.65%, PNR 60%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 1.09%, PNR 60%

Like the C Fund, this was the best month on record for the S Fund in January. The next best was 7.59% in 2012. 2018’s return was 3.34%.

I Fund: 6.60%, 6.60% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = -0.47%, PNR 50%
Jan 20 year CAGR = -0.96%, PNR 50%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 1.21%, PNR 70%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 1.92%, PNR 80%

This was a fantastic return for the I Fund for this time of year. The only higher return was 8.33% in 1994. 2018’s return was 5.00%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Jan (1.07%), 1.07% YTD, PIP -14.28%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Jan (1.07%), 1.07% YTD, PIP -13.95%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jan (1.07%), 1.07% YTD, PIP -8.28%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Jan (1.07%), 1.07% YTD, PIP -10.00%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Jan (1.07%), 1.07% YTD, PIP -1.94%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Jan (8.01%), 8.01% YTD, PIP -10.92%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jan (0.23%), 0.23% YTD

All of the popular Mixes were in F Fund for Jan. While this was a good start for year for the F Fund, everybody is starting out behind the Stock Funds. There’s a lot of ground to make up as the year goes on.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Chindsey
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Chindsey »

Aitrus,

Do you by chance track the following mixes? If so, I'd love to know the stats dating back to 1988.

1. F/S/S/I/C/G/C/F/G/G/C/S
2. F/S/S/I/S/G/C/F/G/G/C/S (Same as #1, but with S in May)

Thanks again for all you do for our community.

- Chindsey

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

Thanks for the kind words, Chindsey. No, I don't track that particular combination, but I'd be glad to run the numbers for you. Here's what I've got:

Chindsey's Mix #1
Jan: F Fund
Feb: S Fund
Mar: S Fund
Apr: I Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: G Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: G Fund
Oct: G Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: S Fund

Since 1988
Overall CAGR: 14.99%, PNR 98% (30 of 31 years positive)
Last 20 CAGR: 11.80%, PNR 95% (19 of 20)
Last 10 CAGR: 16.33%, PNR 90%
Last 5 CAGR: 12.65%, PNR 80%

Best years: 41.69% (2009), 39.27% (1991), 32.95% (1998)
Worst years: -4.10% (2018), 0.19% (2002), 0.45% (2001)

Beat C Fund 19 of 31 times (61%), for a higher gain of 127.47% since 1988.
Best yearly gain over C Fund: 40.12% (2008: 3.12% vs -37.00%)
Worst loss to C Fund: -17.64% (1997: 15.53% vs 33.17%)

Beat S Fund 15 of 31 times (48%), for a higher gain of 90.42% since 1988.
Best yearly gain over S Fund: 41.44% (2008: 3.12% vs -38.32%)
Worst loss to S Fund: -27.84% (1999: 14.55% vs 42.39%)

Number of months with a PIP of 12% or more: 237 of 362 (65.5%)
Number of months with a PIP that was negative: 15 of 362 (4.1%)

Chindsey’s Mix #2


Same monthly allocation as above, but uses S in May.

Since 1988
Overall CAGR: 14.85%, PNR 90% (28 of 31 years positive)
Last 20 CAGR: 11.96%, PNR 85% (17 of 20)
Last 10 CAGR: 16.11%, PNR 90%
Last 5 CAGR: 12.63%, PNR 80%

Best years: 39.51% (2009), 38.20% (1991), 29.23% (1995)
Worst years: -3.43% (2000), -1.82% (2018), -1.47% (2002)

Analysis:
Chindsey, you hit it out of the park with this one. Great CAGRs, fantastic PNRs, only 1 negative year, and only 8 years (including the negative one) that weren’t double digit years to the upside.

This Mix has a typical approach to using stock Funds in Feb – May, Jul and Nov – Dec. It stays out of the market in Jan, Jun, Aug and Sep. Thus far it’s similar to other Mixes with small differences of monthly Fund choices during stock months, but the similarities end there. It uses the G Fund more often than other Mixes, and it stays out of stocks in October. It’s an interesting approach because while stocks are historically good in October taken as a whole, October also has some serious hits in its history. By avoiding those hits, the PNRs end up being among the highest I’ve seen and the CAGRs are kept good. There is only one negative year on the record, 2018, and that negative year was still better than the C and S Funds.

Of note, using the G Fund in Jun, Sep and Oct instead of F means that the older years have better returns for those months than the recent ones, but the difference isn’t crazy. In 1988, G Fund in those months had a combined return of 2.23%. For 2018 it was 0.74%. The choice of using F in Jan and Aug instead of G makes sense. It’s as if the Mix follows the rule of “if it’s not a good month for stocks, then go to F. If it’s not a good month for F, then go to G.” Jun, Sep and Oct aren’t great months for F, the PNRs are ok but the CAGRs aren’t in the “good” range, and those months are even worse for stocks. It’s a good approach to take.

I don’t have any other Mixes that are close to in formation to this one and it has good enough results to be worth keeping an eye on. With your permission I’d like to add it to my list of actively tracked Mixes as part of my monthly updates. I’ll keep your #2 mix as a spin-off that gets covered at the beginning and end of the year.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Chindsey
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Chindsey »

Thank you very much, Aitrus. I really appreciate the thorough analysis.

You absolutely have my permission to add both mixes to your list of actively-tracked ones.

Also, for those in this community who are interested, based upon the historical data available, I believe I have also created a solid strategy that balances the buy-and-hold, monthly/seasonal, and daily approaches — TSPCalc strategy ID # 63177.
Last edited by Chindsey on Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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jdoma
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by jdoma »

Thanks for the clarification. I had missed the fact that the CrispyZee mix was now identical to the updated Jahbulon mix. One less mix to monitor, but thanks to your recent analysis, I will be watching the new Chindsey mix with interest.

"I'm just trying to find the smartest guy in the room and it ain't me"

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2019

Post by Aitrus »

For March 2019
Last chance to move: Thursday, 28 February before noon EST

For this coming March, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.18%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

March is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2018 return was 0.24%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.01%, PNR 58%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.14%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.38%, PNR 60%

March is hands down the worst month of the year for the F Fund.

The best years were 2009 (1.38%), 2000 (1.32%) and 2016 (0.93%). The worst years were 1994 (-2.45%), 2002 (-1.66%) and 1997 (-1.11%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.25%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.75%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.50%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 60%

March is a respectable month for the C Fund. The CAGRs make up for the borderline long-term PNRs.

The best years were 2000 (9.74%), 2009 (8.81%) and 2016 (6.79%). The worst years were 2001 (-6.33%), 1994 (-4.39%) and 1997 (-4.13%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 71%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.71%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.39%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.83%, PNR 60%

March is one of the better months for the S Fund. It’s a time when the springtime earnings season really starts gearing up.

The best years were 2009 (8.64%), 2016 (8.24%) and 2010 (7.39%). The worst years were 2001 (-9.18%), 1997 (-5.22%) and 2014 (-4.89%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.07%, PNR 65%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.35%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.84%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.29%, PNR 40%

The I Fund in March has good CAGRs, but the lower PNRs mean that it’s a dicey bet.

The best years were 1993 (8.56%), 2009 (7.20%), and 2016 (6.59%). The worst years were 1990 (-10.54%), 1992 (-6.75%), and 2001 (-6.67%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for March 2019.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the S Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All of the Mixes either switch stock-based Funds, or move into them from safety for March. Here’s to hoping that it’s a good ride for the rest of the year for all of us.

Also, welcome to Chindsey’s Mix #1 to the monthly tracking! This is the first month that I’m keeping tabs on it on a regular basis. Thanks again for suggesting this one to me, Chindsey.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".