TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
  Recommend TSP Center Register  •  Search  •  FantasyTSP Trophies   

Board index » Thrift Savings Plan » General TSP Discussion




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ] 
Author Message

Join now for full access to TSP Center

This topic has 35 replies

You must be a registered member and logged in to view topic replies.


 or 

 Post Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:47 pm 
Offline

Joined: May 11, 2016
Posts: 824
Flag: United States (us)

Reputation point: 175
Sooooo... big question on Dec 30th... If you were to have stuck with your original Daily Strat... from Jan 1 of last year... where would you be right now?

I'd be the first to admit... come March... I got spooked and started trying to guess the market. It was the dumbest move I could have done and I did it.

If I would have stuck with my daily strategy i started with back in Jan 2018, I think I would have been about 7% better there abouts... Beating the C fund by about +2.5%

I had actually switched at the end of March and started loosely following the #45545... and by loosely I mean if my gut told me to deviate I did. Again... I'm stupid.. and keep showing everyone that. If I would have just stuck with that one... Well... I'd be about +15% higher than I am now... and positive for the year.

So.... lesson learned for me in a big way...

A few days ago I started researching what did well this year... compared to past years...

Look at 57171. I made that the other day. Thinking... okay, like last year we didn't have a Santa Clause ralley, quite the opposite in fact. I think we'll have a good January as people want to be back in the market making money. I want to be in all S come Jan...
So I tweaked a different strat..and I'm not scared of the F no more as it's settled way down... so..

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171&years=04-18

Before 2018... it averaged 31.77%, std dev 10.24

With 2018 included 31.42% and 9.97 std dev

That being said folks... I think the year of 2019 will not be a repeat of me trying to outguess the market. I'm going to follow a plan and stick with it thick or thin.

I'd suggest you do the same... weather that be a daily strat, a monthly strat, or a buy and hold the C and never look at it again.

_________________
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.


Top 
 Profile FantasyTSP  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ] 

Board index » Thrift Savings Plan » General TSP Discussion


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: United States fish8me, United States idaho1 and 10 guests

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
 
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)

20min. delay http://www.google.com/finance

Contact TSP Center

Copyright © 2006-2013 Hostspring Technologies, LLC
All Rights Reserved

Hostspring Technologies, P.O. Box 9457, Chesapeake, VA 23321


Powered by: Hostspring
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)