back to normal!

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Feel bullish or bearish

I feel the market is still bullish.
20
6%
I feel the market is going bearish.
16
5%
I feel like a major correction (crash) is on the way.
18
6%
I feel like a major boom upwards is on the way.
254
82%
 
Total votes: 308

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

back to normal!

Post by tspwizard1 »

It seems in general people are feeling that the market is 'back to normal'. This classic chart shows what I believe is gonna happen next. The stock market is so artificially inflated and overbought. Market has to correct. Now I hear people talking about an inverse head and shoulders. I doubt it. This last bump is it before retreat IMO. GL :lol:
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Bigdrum
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:48 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by Bigdrum »

Agree with you 100%. It's just a matter of time now and the Fed knows it
hence the flat-line in rates.

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by jlozano042 »

Is there a way to change the poll responses from "I feel ..." to "I know ..."? It will make this poll and the stock market much more accurate to predict. :mrgreen:

Oh - and I say "BOOM" baby ----> upwards!

Regularguy
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am

Re: back to normal!

Post by Regularguy »

Interesting outlook. Would you consider this a daily chart? Monthly? seasonal?
I too, am waiting for an entry point.

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Snapdragon
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by Snapdragon »

I'm surprised Major Correction is at 27%. We got some debbie downers here

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by jlozano042 »

90% for big-bada-boom? Wow!

JasonZepp
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:58 am

Re: back to normal!

Post by JasonZepp »

Haha ok obviously someone ip spoofed or something to get the poll all out of whack.

Zoro
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:44 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by Zoro »

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:26 pm
tspwizard1 wrote:I don't think it takes a fortune teller to see that the market is gonna pull back hard in the next couple of days. We are at the end of a bull cycle. The market cannot go up forever. A natural big correction must and will happen soon. Trump cutting corporate taxes and raising annual deficit by 800 billion was a terrible decision. Running out of steam. I'm hiding in G. Once this starts it will be very hard to make gains in the stock market in the next 8-10 years, which sucks. '

If someone disagrees please tell me why you believe the longest bull market in history will continue to rise. I foresee a return to 2011 levels before the start of the next bull run.


The eternal pessimist. LOL.
Last edited by Zoro on Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by jlozano042 »

JasonZepp wrote:Haha ok obviously someone ip spoofed or something to get the poll all out of whack.
You know, I thought about that in some of the previous polls. Either folks be trolling, not a huge fan of the OP, or we got some shenanigans going on. Orrrrr ... we just got a large optimistic group here.

User avatar
IwantmyMTV
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:14 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by IwantmyMTV »

I'm optimistic!!!

Capitalism
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:45 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by Capitalism »

Well the Fed is indicating a slower rate of rate increases. A China deals seems to be near. We have good employment numbers. Inflations is not an issue. Lots to be optimistic about IMO.

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by tspwizard1 »

Capitalism wrote:Well the Fed is indicating a slower rate of rate increases. A China deals seems to be near. We have good employment numbers. Inflations is not an issue. Lots to be optimistic about IMO.

Inflation isn't any issue?!? We are losing purchasing power by the day it seems. Inflation is crazy where i live.

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: back to normal!

Post by Tomanyiron »

You know this is another type of “Sentiment Indicator”, and sentiment indicators are often contrarian, (when mostly bullish, the markets are often near a top). Also considered as “Dumb Money”. :( I don’t want to offend anyone, but as a group we are.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/se ... icator.asp
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: back to normal!

Post by Chulke »

You know....all I know is what I see from what I do! and here is what I've gleamed from that...

I jump out of the market because my stop loss trigger was tripped and then the market rises....I jump back in cause things are looking up again and the market drops like a stone! That's all I know and all I see....It's like Karma or some kind of punishment for my past mistakes or some crap! It is literally like someone is watching what I am doing and then deliberately trying to drain any chance of me getting ahead in life for myself or my family!

The frustration is maddening!

But now I'm stuck in the S fund until it turns again or selling for a loss and just staying on the sidelines watching everyone else's account go up in value except mine!

Don't believe me? Take a look at almost every time I submitted an IFT on here...chances are the next day is a down day...every time! and My Fantasy account mirrors my real accounts!


UUUUUGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!



Cheers to all!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: back to normal!

Post by jlozano042 »

Chulke wrote:You know....all I know is what I see from what I do! and here is what I've gleamed from that...

I jump out of the market because my stop loss trigger was tripped and then the market rises....I jump back in cause things are looking up again and the market drops like a stone! That's all I know and all I see....It's like Karma or some kind of punishment for my past mistakes or some crap! It is literally like someone is watching what I am doing and then deliberately trying to drain any chance of me getting ahead in life for myself or my family!

The frustration is maddening!

But now I'm stuck in the S fund until it turns again or selling for a loss and just staying on the sidelines watching everyone else's account go up in value except mine!

Don't believe me? Take a look at almost every time I submitted an IFT on here...chances are the next day is a down day...every time! and My Fantasy account mirrors my real accounts!

UUUUUGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!

Cheers to all!
Confess your sins my child .... tell us about your "... past mistakes or some crap!" ????

I kid ... I kid .... maybe your strategy, currently like mine, should be buy and hold. You might be doing too much damage control and timing it incorrectly (which in itself is hard to do)? What strategy are you following?

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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