TSP Center Data Call for week of March 24, 2019:            

TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
  Recommend TSP Center Register  •  Search  •  FantasyTSP Trophies   

Board index » Thrift Savings Plan » General TSP Discussion




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 6 posts ] 
Author Message

Join now for full access to TSP Center

This topic has 5 replies

You must be a registered member and logged in to view topic replies.


 or 

 Post Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Nov 14, 2014
Posts: 187
Flag: United States (us)

Reputation point: 80
So my service is quite different from the others so I thought I would post a spinet of my commentary for those interested in learning more about how the markets really work.

Market Commentary
11 March 2019

So I've been trying to find a reason for the bump today in the stock market. Not that every bump needs a reason. But I found two possibilities: First and very likely part of it, is looking at our TSP Almanacs we know this is options expiration week and so the market gets a tail wind this week and a head wind next week. That is the average pattern. Every year can be different, but put them all together and we see the underlying currents.

The other is the negative economic news. There is nothing like negative economic news to get the financial markets all giddy over the expected monetary fix surely in the works to stimulate the "economy" (the financial economy not the main street economy).

First the latest estimate for the 1st quarter (current) GDP is a raging 0.2% growth down from over 2.0% a month ago. Almost in a recession - super financial news.

Image


Digging a little deeper we know 70% of the GDP model is consumer spending and retail sales are now begging for more "economic" stimulus. January's retail sales was reported up 0.2% from December, but that bump required them revising December's sales down 0.4% at the same time - see how that works. The bottom-line is January's sales were down 1.4% from Novembers and flat since May. Once you subtract inflation, that means retail sales have declined in real terms since May 2018.



I've said it is difficult to push the US economy into a recession even with a global industrial recession but they are pushing pretty hard. And Trump wants to push harder it seems since he is looking to cut demand side spending significantly to help pay for his permanent (until the next election) tax cuts for the rich. These of course include every bad idea ever thought up by the budget hawks to include curtailing federal retirement and benefits and say it is not so... basing the TSP G fund on the 3 month Treasury just in time for negative interest rates during the next recession. Or at least a rapid return to zero.



So if any part of this package gets passed, a deep recession is assured as demand continues to get squeezed, budget deficits soar and long-term interest rates rise. Which explains why some economist are working on permanent money printing theory (MMT) to make it look scientific in all in their presentations to the public.

_________________
Michael at
TSP Smart Investor Website
TSP Perspectives and Reports


Top 
 Profile FantasyTSP  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 6 posts ] 

Board index » Thrift Savings Plan » General TSP Discussion


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
 
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)

20min. delay http://www.google.com/finance

Contact TSP Center

Copyright © 2006-2013 Hostspring Technologies, LLC
All Rights Reserved

Hostspring Technologies, P.O. Box 9457, Chesapeake, VA 23321


Powered by: Hostspring
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)