My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forward...

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mmmmmbeer
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Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forward...

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Sooooo... big question on Dec 30th... If you were to have stuck with your original Daily Strat... from Jan 1 of last year... where would you be right now?

I'd be the first to admit... come March... I got spooked and started trying to guess the market. It was the dumbest move I could have done and I did it.

If I would have stuck with my daily strategy i started with back in Jan 2018, I think I would have been about 7% better there abouts... Beating the C fund by about +2.5%

I had actually switched at the end of March and started loosely following the #45545... and by loosely I mean if my gut told me to deviate I did. Again... I'm stupid.. and keep showing everyone that. If I would have just stuck with that one... Well... I'd be about +15% higher than I am now... and positive for the year.

So.... lesson learned for me in a big way...

A few days ago I started researching what did well this year... compared to past years...

Look at 57171. I made that the other day. Thinking... okay, like last year we didn't have a Santa Clause ralley, quite the opposite in fact. I think we'll have a good January as people want to be back in the market making money. I want to be in all S come Jan...
So I tweaked a different strat..and I'm not scared of the F no more as it's settled way down... so..

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171&years=04-18

Before 2018... it averaged 31.77%, std dev 10.24

With 2018 included 31.42% and 9.97 std dev

That being said folks... I think the year of 2019 will not be a repeat of me trying to outguess the market. I'm going to follow a plan and stick with it thick or thin.

I'd suggest you do the same... weather that be a daily strat, a monthly strat, or a buy and hold the C and never look at it again.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Jones44
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue May 02, 2017 9:41 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by Jones44 »

I'm with you beer. I took a beating this year doing exactly what you did.... Lesson learned

NotSoGood
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Mar 07, 2008 3:33 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by NotSoGood »

Every time I start looking at the TSPCalc site, I wonder: Why do I not follow one of these strategies that kill it year after year???

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by Octjan2 »

NotSoGood wrote:Every time I start looking at the TSPCalc site, I wonder: Why do I not follow one of these strategies that kill it year after year???
It’s good to have you back on the threads beer man! You always bring good, positive input to the forum. I am definitely hoping for a much better 2019. It has been a tough year.

Notsogood, at the beginning of last year I thought I had found the TSP fountain of youth through the daily strategies. I was pumped up, telling all my friends at work, and telling my girls about the projected 11 million they would inherit someday after making 20% plus gains over the next 10 years. Everybody was high fiving and pulling the cork off the champagne. For instance, one guy stated on here that Strat 17842, based on st deviation, had a better chance of finishing the year without a loss than of one of us winning the Powerball. It’s possible to still finish positive, but at -6% and only one trading day left it looks like it will finish in the red. My only concern at the beginning of the year was not having the benefit of picking a strat, then evaluating it’s FUTURE performance before blindly following it. Most of the strategies that appeared to be fail proof last January are going to finish the year deep in the red. Now my question is, just because you create a new strat that has done well the past 14 years, will it still do well in the future? With the millions of possible combinations, can’t we always find a NEW strat that appears to be fail proof...until it is tested with future results.

michigande
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:51 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by michigande »

I basically did the same thing, Mr. Beer. I started off following #27777 with about a third of my funds, leaving the other 2/3 in L2030 since that's where they were when I rediscovered this site. I got spooked off after about april and started following the Guru for a while who dug me out of the hole and into positive territory. Following a leader is a real nail biter though and I won't do it again. I waited anxiously every day just before noon, refreshing my TSP interfund transfer page, etc, only to effect a trade that I had no clue how risky it was. Turns out a couple were pretty risky.

Had I stuck to 27777 I would be -2 for the year and would have seen a high water mark at +5.15%. Good related to my current position, but hardly enviable.

For a while I've been undecided and following a couple of influences. Tomanyiron's Market Pull is a convincing lead to follow. its posted reliably and as he said this year, any strategy that doesn't take current events into account won't do well in this market (paraphrased).

This year I've considered following a daily for which fund to be watching at any given time, but using various indicators to decide if I should make those moves. For instance, if the strat says to move to S tomorrow, I would look at Market Pull and see if the current data supports that move. If it says to move to C, Equityclock watches the SP500 pretty well and has predictions.

I'm not settled on this though and common sense would say to just watch the Market Pull thread and follow Tommy, He's about 15 points above the S fund currently.

MrSnrub
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:21 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by MrSnrub »

I followed strategy #28789 (the single highest-performing daily strategy in terms of total return from 2004-2017) to the T this year and look where it got me. NOWHERE, that’s where! It just wasn’t our year I guess. And hey it’s not like the stock market did super awesome and daily seasonal strategies did super awful. NOBODY did good this year! 2018 will go down as the year nobody made money (unless you were in the G Fund all year). So now what? Do I stick with #28789 for another year? Do I try the current 2004-2018 leader in total return (#56401)? Do I abandon the seasonal strategies for good and just go 33C33S33I for the rest of my life? Do I try one of those lower standard deviation ones like #45433? I don’t know yet.
Nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future. Stop asking. Just shut up and follow strategy #72033 to glory.

MrSnrub
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:21 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by MrSnrub »

I will add that I am absolutely TERRRIFIED that pretty much every daily strategy out there forces me to go into the F Fund in a couple days.
Nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future. Stop asking. Just shut up and follow strategy #72033 to glory.

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Tomanyiron
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by Tomanyiron »

Thanks michigande for the mention. At the end of the year everyone gets the hindsight guilt. No system will eliminate that, because no system is going to be better that about 60-75% when stretched out over years.

My New Years resolutions:1-Assimilate all the new info. 2- Adjust system only if needed. 3- Then stay in sync.

What’s going to work in 2019? Well that’s the 62,034 dollar question.
“The US national debt stood at around 21.51 trillion U.S. dollars as of September 2018. The national debt per capita in 2017 was around 62,034 U.S. dollars.”
Sorry for leaving it on a negative note.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

tegsr94
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:14 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by tegsr94 »

I had started the year (2018) committed to strategy 20241 which had an incredibly low standard deviation. After March I got spooked being down all ready over 8% and started to deviate from the strategy. Having said that, as a government employee hired in 2010 I had been contributing to the Lifecycle 2040 fund until December of 2016 when I discovered this site. In 2017 I started using the monthly strategies and then transitioned to a daily with the invention of TSPcalc in the summer of 17. Needless to say, I have outperformed the L2040 fund for these last 2 years so I am pleased thus far. (My fantasy returns are slightly worse than my actual due to some missed IFTs). This year I'm following 5 different strategies that are probably 75% of the time consistent with each other. The primary strategy I'm using for 2019 is 56175. I'll have to decide when they deviate from each other which funds to be in. Thanks everyone for all the advice and knowledge!

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by fordest »

I have been following #31877 all year. I stuck with it even when I was down more than 8% in March. And I am glad I did. I ended up making all of that back. Yes, I lost a good part of that again in December, but at -3% I still ended up higher than C and S and L2050 and L2040 and L2030. L2030 is where I would have been without this strategy so I am happy to have beaten that.

I did expect a lot more. I never wanted to be negative. But I am not giving up. I will be looking for a new strategy now that there are almost twice as many in the system and there's another year on the books. My current Favorite is #57002.

Thank you for this thread. I plan to use all the strategies mentioned here to compare to my favorite come Jan 2.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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Sad Al
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:50 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by Sad Al »

I started 2018 in #24823. I got five negative months in a row. That's enough to spook anyone, right? Had I stuck with it, I would have 3% loss on the year.

Around August I switched to #45433. Bad timing, the next three of four months at the end of the year were all negative. Had I been in #45433 all year, a 14% gain would have been realized.

That's why I really want to stick with one plan through the whole year. I chose #53377 at the beginning of December. Seems like I pick the worst time to make changes, though, as that strategy suffered in December, but who didn't? But I like its chances for 2019.

Checking out #57002 now - Thanks Fordest! That's a nice LOW SD. and really consistent performance in the +20% range each year.

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TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by TSP Jedi »

I plan on “timing” the market in 2019 and i’m going to match my real TSP with my Fantasy TSP so i can compete with everyone!

mango72
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:44 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by mango72 »

As someone alluded to earlier,dont use these strats without taking in to consideration current events. I personally havent got the courage to use one myself as I havent been able to find any real world testimonies of gains using them. The only thing i ever read is people following them for a time, getting spooked and going back to more of an events/data driven approach. If anyone can produce actual evidence of true gains, im all ears...

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by mmmmmbeer »

We have a guy on the facebook page named Brian... started following #40606 in May religiously... he missed the first 4 nonths . But returned +12.5% the rest of the year.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: My thoughts on the TSPCalc Daily Strategies going forwar

Post by fordest »

That woulda been good enough for the top spot here.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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