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Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:50 pm
by JasonZepp
As someone who is new to all this and is not sure they have a very good seasonal strategy, what do you all think of using the
Leader Board and Stats tab and picking an allocation based off the Top 10 users stats (e.g. right now I would pick S fund)? I haven't changed my allocations this way yet, still using my strategy, but I am comparing just out of curiosity.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:30 pm
by fordest
I tried something like that once. The problem you will run into is this. Imagine the following.
Market is doing decent. The top 10 are in the S fund... so you are in the S fund. Then it starts to tank. Suddenly the top 10 are now in the G fund. So you move to the G. Then S fund gets strong because it's now under-priced. S-funders rule the top 10 again. Do you have another move? depends when you got into S. But how long can you do this?
The leader board has the potential to move more often than twice a month and a third move to G. It's also going to be a lagging indicator at times. If the leaders are making smart moves and you move with them, then it might work. But if you are just trying to keep in the fund that the majority of the leaders are in... might not.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:56 pm
by michigande
started following TSPGuru for a while last year who dug me out of the February hole and into positive territory. Following a leader is a real nail biter though and I won't do it again. I waited anxiously every day just before noon, refreshing my TSP interfund transfer page, waiting for a text notification of an IFT, hoping no one called or stopped by my desk etc, only to effect a trade that I had no clue how risky it was. Turns out a couple were pretty risky and I got cold feet following and ate the loss.
"Buyer beware" as one member described following the leader.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:06 pm
by misfit
lets go Islanders!!.
Let's go Guru.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:30 pm
by misfit
JasonZepp wrote:As someone who is new to all this and is not sure they have a very good seasonal strategy, what do you all think of using the
Leader Board and Stats tab and picking an allocation based off the Top 10 users stats (e.g. right now I would pick S fund)? I haven't changed my allocations this way yet, still using my strategy, but I am comparing just out of curiosity.
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I recommend following the leaderboard. Look at their gains. Whoever Went to S after New Years is Killing it. Not me. I suck and didn't listen to MMARTI7 a year ago either. I'm learning as I go too....thanks all...
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:42 am
by TopComm
If you are going to follow the leader board, I'd recommend looking at the leader board by date range and selecting 360 days. When it is this early in the year, the default leader board may turn out to be misleading....
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:03 am
by mattch45
The leaderboard just tells you who made the last lucky IFT. It doesn’t show you who will make the next lucky IFT. Even I was on the leader board last year for a bit (and gained a bunch of followers temporarily) based solely on one lucky move to F with a lucky guess on when to move back to S.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:40 am
by seawatcher
Right or Wrong, I'm not sure. My watch list includes the current year to date leaders but I update it. I also include many of the 2018 leaders even if they are not at the top now because I figure they made some good decisions to weather the downturn around Oct-Dec. I use the watch list to get an idea of when people are making moves and generally where people are sitting. But it is just ONE of many things I consider when making an inter fund transfer.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:29 am
by jlozano042
I give you all permission to follow me, I'll even notify you right before I make an IFT.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:41 am
by misfit
jlozano042 wrote:I give you all permission to follow me, I'll even notify you right before I make an IFT.
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What's to follow? you must buy and hold!!!!
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:58 am
by phxmrc
I agree with the gist of fordest's reply. I did what you are suggesting outside of the Fantasy TSP awhile back and decided that following the top 10's percentage's was to vague to accomplish what I was hoping to achieve (which was to duplicate as closely as possible their returns) and found that the top 5 seemed to work a little better ( it seemed more responsive). The big problem though turned out to be deciding at what point do you make one of your available trades??? If your following a strategy then there probably is a trigger to make a move but what do you do when your just following a group of people? If they all move at once, well then it's a no brainer but what if just one or two moved? Since the percentages moved just a little does that now justify a move? You need a trigger for your strategy. And consider this as well; since everybody at the top generally follows each others moves you could very well be one of the Lemmings following the leader over the edge of the cliff. There's been more than one leader that's disappeared from the first page of the leaders list; just suggesting it's something to consider. Blindly following a group of people when you have no idea whether they have a strategy or just made a few lucky moves is a gamble that in the long run you probably can't win.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:35 pm
by inla$vega$
Take a look at the Leader Board by Account Balance posting done a couple of years ago. Checking the long term better performers as suggested is a better follow the leader choice. (But verify that they are still active in making IFTs versus riding out their early success.)
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=15238
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:37 pm
by jlozano042
misfit wrote:jlozano042 wrote:I give you all permission to follow me, I'll even notify you right before I make an IFT.
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What's to follow? you must buy and hold!!!!
I don't know .... I just want to be liked around here.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:58 pm
by Billionair
jlozano042 wrote:misfit wrote:jlozano042 wrote:I give you all permission to follow me, I'll even notify you right before I make an IFT.
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What's to follow? you must buy and hold!!!!
I don't know .... I just want to be liked around here.
I like you
.
Re: Picking allocations using Leader Board by Stats
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:25 pm
by jlozano042
Hahaha ... roger that shuga. I'll drink tonight at hooters to that.
Have a great weekend.