Trade deal thoughts. C,S and or I?

[priested]

If you read between the lines from everything out of Trump/China, there will be either no trade deal or a very weak deal months from now. I'm amazed the market bounced at the close because it was very clear nothing was accomplished. Further, Trumps tweets seem to suggest he has about given up on a deal.

The question now is how to trade a market with no trade deal on the horizon, heavy tariffs, and China set to "retaliate" . Seems to me like G is the place to be but interested in other opinions.

it’s bc news doesn’t sway the markets, markets do what they do regardless

So, are you really trying to say that the markets went south by almost 2% and then miraculously finished up 0.5% Friday because of some charts people were looking at? It had nothing to do with both sides coming out of the trade meeting saying there was "progress"? It was just coincidental that the markets chose that particular time in the day to do a complete turn around and finish positive? Surely that's not what you are saying.

[TSP Jedi]

If you read between the lines from everything out of Trump/China, there will be either no trade deal or a very weak deal months from now. I'm amazed the market bounced at the close because it was very clear nothing was accomplished. Further, Trumps tweets seem to suggest he has about given up on a deal.

The question now is how to trade a market with no trade deal on the horizon, heavy tariffs, and China set to "retaliate" . Seems to me like G is the place to be but interested in other opinions.

it’s bc news doesn’t sway the markets, markets do what they do regardless

So, are you really trying to say that the markets went south by almost 2% and then miraculously finished up 0.5% Friday because of some charts people were looking at? It had nothing to do with both sides coming out of the trade meeting saying there was "progress"? It was just coincidental that the markets chose that particular time in the day to do a complete turn around and finish positive? Surely that's not what you are saying.

market put in a top on the 1st and traded down to fill some gaps. professional traders who understand the TIME aspect we’re looking for a low friday, monday, or tuesday..... typical trend change is a reversal candle or exhaustion candle and that’s what we got. the market didn’t bounce friday bc of a tweet, it bounced bc it filled the gap!

[priested]

OK, Jedi. Again, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think it's fairly obvious that the markets respond to world events, moves by the fed, economic reports, etc. It happens literally every week and it's fairly obvious when it does. You can literally see it happen in the moment.

I'm not saying that is ALL that drives the markets. It most certainly isn't. Much of the market moves - especially in the absence of these issues - is driven by exactly what you are talking about. But to say that such things as trade agreements, fed moves, and yes, even some of Trumps tweets, do not have any impact on the market is frankly ludicrous. But carry on...

[TSP Jedi]

OK, Jedi. Again, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think it's fairly obvious that the markets respond to world events, moves by the fed, economic reports, etc. It happens literally every week and it's fairly obvious when it does. You can literally see it happen in the moment.

I'm not saying that is ALL that drives the markets. It most certainly isn't. Much of the market moves - especially in the absence of these issues - is driven by exactly what you are talking about. But to say that such things as trade agreements, fed moves, and yes, even some of Trumps tweets, do not have any impact on the market is frankly ludicrous. But carry on...

the market fill a gap and rallied before any tweets or news came out. after the fact, the financial pundants blame whatever they want. SPY filled a gap and rallied, that’s it

[Billionair]

Down down almost 500 points before the market opens.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/investin ... index.html

[Ericdelee]

possible 5-8% pullback

Got anything to support that?

Yea, my endless work and chart/technical analysis

I think it is safe to say you called this

[priested]

possible 5-8% pullback

I think it is safe to say you called this[/quote][/quote]

But then why did he buy back into S on Thurs? Weird since he called a 5-8% draw down and we weren't there yet on Thurs. Now we are.

[PhilJohn]

For those who fled to safety before the downturn, any idea when you will decide to buy back in?

[Billionair]

For those who fled to safety before the downturn, any idea when you will decide to buy back in?

3% more on the negative side for me, maybe 2% if I was feeling risky.

[Horaenaut]

For those who fled to safety before the downturn, any idea when you will decide to buy back in?

The S Fund dropped about 4.5% since April 29th. Everyone seems to be girding up for something like December's drop (which was 24.4%). I think this is probably going to be more of a 10% total drop (in the S fund), but I'm likely going to buy back in when it hits 8% because I am a twitchy fellow.

I am also watching the 5 day SMA to see if the market goes back above it, which would likely trigger me to buy back in (and I'm pretty intrigued by Tomanyiron's Bullish meter too).

I only get one more IFT this month, so whenever I buy back in, I'm locked in unless I want to run everything to the G. I generally prefer hiding in the F to the G.

[jlozano042]

.... He rules like a Twitter dictator. So erratic I think he is mentally ill, and I am serious about that....

Rules man .... you should read the rules before posting on a new forum. Keep the political-bashing talk elsewhere eh.

Anybody who wants to debate political stances, bash or defend Trump or the Republicans or the Democrats, or that wants to debate the finer points of the China trade deal or the pros and cons of socialism or capitalism, or want to discuss the upcoming elections...you do it here. Or in another thread of your own making in the Anything Goes section of the forum.

If I find any politically-based post outside the Anything Goes area of the forum after 11 May 2019, it will be moved to this thread.

Use the entirety of the TSP forum as it was designed and we shouldn't have any further problems. That means no dragging discussions off-topic by introducing political themes, issues or opinions into non-political threads.

[seawatcher]

C,S,I seem to be edging up again today (3rd day in a row) so thinking about transfer from G (been in G all month of May) to C and S. I read the notes here, the TSP Talk daily market summary, and news on market watch. I thought the stock funds would be going down more and hoping to buy back into C and S at lower prices but are we headed back up again already? Seems unpredictable but I'm looking for any other indications about if prices will continue to edge up or go down more. With the big drop on Monday this week, who knows what tomorrow (Friday) will bring?

For those who fled to safety before the downturn, any idea when you will decide to buy back in?

The S Fund dropped about 4.5% since April 29th. Everyone seems to be girding up for something like December's drop (which was 24.4%). I think this is probably going to be more of a 10% total drop (in the S fund), but I'm likely going to buy back in when it hits 8% because I am a twitchy fellow.

I am also watching the 5 day SMA to see if the market goes back above it, which would likely trigger me to buy back in (and I'm pretty intrigued by Tomanyiron's Bullish meter too).

I only get one more IFT this month, so whenever I buy back in, I'm locked in unless I want to run everything to the G. I generally prefer hiding in the F to the G.

[Horaenaut]

C,S,I seem to be edging up again today (3rd day in a row) so thinking about transfer from G (been in G all month of May) to C and S. I read the notes here, the TSP Talk daily market summary, and news on market watch. I thought the stock funds would be going down more and hoping to buy back into C and S at lower prices but are we headed back up again already? Seems unpredictable but I'm looking for any other indications about if prices will continue to edge up or go down more. With the big drop on Monday this week, who knows what tomorrow (Friday) will bring?

So say we all.

It feels like it should go down more, but we're all watching it go back up. Despite China tariffs, Iran instability, and bad market news being shouted from the mountaintops I've seen a number of indicators trending up.

Now I just need to decide if I move my money based on what we're seeing, or leave it based on what feels like a market that hit a top. It's very likely this was not the big drop everyone's been waiting for and we were just overly excited about recognizing another December.

[seawatcher]

I'm ready to move half to C and S but with my Irish luck (or lack of), Friday will go down.

C,S,I seem to be edging up again today (3rd day in a row) so thinking about transfer from G (been in G all month of May) to C and S. I read the notes here, the TSP Talk daily market summary, and news on market watch. I thought the stock funds would be going down more and hoping to buy back into C and S at lower prices but are we headed back up again already? Seems unpredictable but I'm looking for any other indications about if prices will continue to edge up or go down more. With the big drop on Monday this week, who knows what tomorrow (Friday) will bring?

So say we all.

It feels like it should go down more, but we're all watching it go back up. Despite China tariffs, Iran instability, and bad market news being shouted from the mountaintops I've seen a number of indicators trending up.

Now I just need to decide if I move my money based on what we're seeing, or leave it based on what feels like a market that hit a top. It's very likely this was not the big drop everyone's been waiting for and we were just overly excited about recognizing another December.

[Artcai2]

Fund Returns (Chart Range: Oct 01, 2018 - May 15, 2019)
L 2050=-1.34% L 2040=-0.85% L 2030=-0.33% L 2020=+0.76%
L 2010=+1.31% L Income=

G Fund=+1.75% F Fund=+5.45% C Fund=-1.26% S Fund=-3.44%
I Fund=-3.47%