Up trend or dead cat?

[PhilJohn]

New strategy. Get my 1.5, 2% gain for the month and run back to G. Like an investment assassin!

Good safe bet if you're a couple years to retirement, or already there.

But if you're younger, why not take advantage of the WELL-KNOWN COLLECTIVE IRRATIONALITY of greedy and/or misinformed investors and traders? As irrational as they behave they exhibit some patterns that can are somewhat predictable

As much as I like greed, I have to side with getting one and a half to 2% per month and running for the G. Anytime you can solidify at 18 to 24% a year, that is a pattern to go with.

And now I am at that target range % for the month. Its before 11am, so I could bounce back to G and lock in, but.....just 1 more day.

[Horaenaut]

Big gains, but we got tweets today about China (meeting at G20) and a rate cut (requested by the President, but not guaranteed). I'm selling off 30% while it's high and moving it into the G.

Chinese media is being very clear that the call to set up the G20 meeting was requested by the U.S. The posturing and a reported comment about the U.S. "being fair" with Chinese companies (a nod to the idea that Beijing wants Huawei to be part of trade talks when they resume) does not leave me hopeful for a deal.

The tweet asking for the Fed cut puts the Fed in a hard position--if they cut they are going against market fundamentals that say they should not be cutting right now, but if they don't cut by the end of July they are guaranteed a big drop.

I don't want to be out of the market in case either comes through, but feeling more bearish and I want to mitigate the likely drop at the end of the month.

[MaddMoney]

Hello everyone, I thank you all for the great insight, shared experiences and thoughts; I do truly enjoy reading all the posts. My good friend, volatility, has keep me in G fund with LITTLE to NO growth since Dec, 2018. I have watched some really big opportunities (latest one being on May 31st ) come and go but just cant seem to pull the trigger. I followed the seasonal plan but like some others, I have pulled out for safer ground. I watch the opening bell, closing bell and the Bloomberg's Market coverage during off hours daily BUT just cant figure out where this crazy market will go... It is not following sound principals but reacting to artificial information with little to no backing. I just wanted to vent and see if there were others in my position? Thanks, Signed PERPLEXED!

[jlozano042]

Hello everyone, I thank you all for the great insight, shared experiences and thoughts; I do truly enjoy reading all the posts. My good friend, volatility, has keep me in G fund with LITTLE to NO growth since Dec, 2018. I have watched some really big opportunities (latest one being on May 31st ) come and go but just cant seem to pull the trigger. I followed the seasonal plan but like some others, I have pulled out for safer ground. I watch the opening bell, closing bell and the Bloomberg's Market coverage during off hours daily BUT just cant figure out where this crazy market will go... It is not following sound principals but reacting to artificial information with little to no backing. I just wanted to vent and see if there were others in my position? Thanks, Signed PERPLEXED!

If I may .... how long do you have until retirement?

[PhilJohn]

Good safe bet if you're a couple years to retirement, or already there.

But if you're younger, why not take advantage of the WELL-KNOWN COLLECTIVE IRRATIONALITY of greedy and/or misinformed investors and traders? As irrational as they behave they exhibit some patterns that can are somewhat predictable [/quote]

As much as I like greed, I have to side with getting one and a half to 2% per month and running for the G. Anytime you can solidify at 18 to 24% a year, that is a pattern to go with.[/quote]

And now I am at that target range % for the month. Its before 11am, so I could bounce back to G and lock in, but.....just 1 more day.[/quote]

I’ve got about 8 years left. Now I’ve made my 3ish%. I’ll make an IFT today and lock in those gains with my last IFT. I’ll probably miss out on more gains but 3ish percent is good.

[12squared]

My good friend, volatility, has keep me in G fund with LITTLE to NO growth since Dec, 2018. I have watched some really big opportunities (latest one being on May 31st ) come and go but just cant seem to pull the trigger. I followed the seasonal plan but like some others, I have pulled out for safer ground. I watch the opening bell, closing bell and the Bloomberg's Market coverage during off hours daily BUT just cant figure out where this crazy market will go... It is not following sound principals but reacting to artificial information with little to no backing. I just wanted to vent and see if there were others in my position? Thanks, Signed PERPLEXED!

Those who subscribe to Elliott Wave Theory suggest that listening to talking heads is not helpful - and that price alone is the only true gauge of market sentiment/direction.

Are You A Lemming?

[TSP Jedi]

Elliot Wave is the biggest joke

[Hoss2112]

Elliot Wave is the biggest joke

What an insightful comment. Well thought out. Excellent analysis.

[TSPBuilder]

Elliot Wave is the biggest joke

What an insightful comment. Well thought out. Excellent analysis.

You were too kind Hoss2112

I was thinking more along the lines that it lowers the quality of this forum to dismiss technical analysis like the Elliot Wave Theory without taking the time to share the facts to support your position and provide positive change for the participants.

I personally have seen a high correlation of witches hats being an indicator for major change being imminent. That in combination with other tools like Moving averages and Japanese candlesticks can give you good support for investing decisions.

That's why I stated earlier in the thread that it was more likely a witches hat than a dead cat.

[TSP Jedi]

Elliot Wave is the biggest joke

What an insightful comment. Well thought out. Excellent analysis.

You were too kind Hoss2112

I was thinking more along the lines that it lowers the quality of this forum to dismiss technical analysis like the Elliot Wave Theory without taking the time to share the facts to support your position and provide positive change for the participants.

I personally have seen a high correlation of witches hats being an indicator for major change being imminent. That in combination with other tools like Moving averages and Japanese candlesticks can give you good support for investing decisions.

That's why I stated earlier in the thread that it was more likely a witches hat than a dead cat.

Have you ever asked one of these Elliot Wave guys what their current wave count looks like? you get literally 12 different wave count scenarios. that’s why it’s trash!

[PhilJohn]

Have you ever asked one of these Elliot Wave guys what their current wave count looks like? you get literally 12 different wave count scenarios. that’s why it’s trash![/quote]

My method is more scientific. Every Monday, I wake up, pour some coffee and head to the back yard. I get a fist full of grass and throw it up in the air. If the grass travels toward the pole barn, I buy. If it blows towards the house, I play it safe. Beats the fancy TV shows everytime.

[jlozano042]

My method is more scientific. Every Monday, I wake up, pour some coffee and head to the back yard. I get a fist full of grass and throw it up in the air. If the grass travels toward the pole barn, I buy. If it blows towards the house, I play it safe. Beats the fancy TV shows everytime.

Damn .... I like your method better than mine. What I do ... every morning I get my young son to do tricks in his power wheels. If he falls off the right side of the power wheel then the market goes up, if he falls out the left side than the market goes bad!

[PhilJohn]

Nice. We will both be millionaires!