Up trend or dead cat?
Moderator: Aitrus
- jlozano042
- Posts: 836
- Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
It's the cheap way out .. but damn it feels much better to be just B&H. I don't have to worry about anything ... Following a strategy is also the best way - just let it do the thinking for you.
Either way - strategies just wasn't working for me so I'm trying the B&H for a bit. Call me a loser - I'll take it.
Either way - strategies just wasn't working for me so I'm trying the B&H for a bit. Call me a loser - I'll take it.
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Hi all,
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Joe
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Joe
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Thanks for the wise words and for sharing your experiences, JMK. I've always said that B&H works for many people, and have no beef with those that choose to use it. There is certainly something to be said for simplicity.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
Support the site by purchasing a membership at TSPCalc! https://tspcalc.com
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
It looks like a deal has been struck with Mexico with tariffs suspended indefinitely. Fed expected to cut rates. Could see a deal struck with China at G20. Lots of moving parts but I think I’ll probably buy next week.
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
[quote="Jmk"]Hi all,
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Wise words! I had my best years with B&H and should probably start getting back to it.
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Wise words! I had my best years with B&H and should probably start getting back to it.
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Jmk wrote:Hi all,
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Joe
When you say B&H C,S,I...what percentages for each?
Cheers!
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Well, the S and I didn't start until 2001, so 100% C. Then 40/40/20 C/S/I.
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Been some good gains thus far for June: C Fund +4.46% and S Fund +3.80%. But who knew right, the way May was going? It looked like the start of a typical summer time pullback. However things look pretty good at the moment, with a lot of indicators signaling buy.
But hold on, look again at those numbers "C Fund +4.46% and S Fund +3.80%" see anything? There’s something that’s not right. Small caps ratio with large caps ($DWCPF:$SPX) the red line on chart below.
http://schrts.co/YKYbPnCu
All the highs reached by small caps were below the SPX. And has been trending down. That is a bearish indicator. In fact that bearish chart action started back in March. In my book that’s not good. (By “my book” I mean a medium risk tolerance investor). All we can do is trade what we see.
That could change within a day or two, but presently, that’s my main holdout from jumping in. Can money be made with another system? You bet, and has been.
No doubt a person must have passion for trying to time the markets. And although things look pretty good at the moment, you must have rules for your IFTs. You (and I) can’t let excitement rule our IFTs.
But hold on, look again at those numbers "C Fund +4.46% and S Fund +3.80%" see anything? There’s something that’s not right. Small caps ratio with large caps ($DWCPF:$SPX) the red line on chart below.
http://schrts.co/YKYbPnCu
All the highs reached by small caps were below the SPX. And has been trending down. That is a bearish indicator. In fact that bearish chart action started back in March. In my book that’s not good. (By “my book” I mean a medium risk tolerance investor). All we can do is trade what we see.
That could change within a day or two, but presently, that’s my main holdout from jumping in. Can money be made with another system? You bet, and has been.
No doubt a person must have passion for trying to time the markets. And although things look pretty good at the moment, you must have rules for your IFTs. You (and I) can’t let excitement rule our IFTs.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Jmk wrote:Well, the S and I didn't start until 2001, so 100% C. Then 40/40/20 C/S/I.
Cool! That gives me something to think about for sure!
Cheers!
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Tomanyiron wrote:Been some good gains thus far for June: C Fund +4.46% and S Fund +3.80%. But who knew right, the way May was going? It looked like the start of a typical summer time pullback. However things look pretty good at the moment, with a lot of indicators signaling buy.
But hold on, look again at those numbers "C Fund +4.46% and S Fund +3.80%" see anything? There’s something that’s not right. Small caps ratio with large caps ($DWCPF:$SPX) the red line on chart below.
http://schrts.co/YKYbPnCu
All the highs reached by small caps were below the SPX. And has been trending down. That is a bearish indicator. In fact that bearish chart action started back in March. In my book that’s not good. (By “my book” I mean a medium risk tolerance investor). All we can do is trade what we see.
That could change within a day or two, but presently, that’s my main holdout from jumping in. Can money be made with another system? You bet, and has been.
No doubt a person must have passion for trying to time the markets. And although things look pretty good at the moment, you must have rules for your IFTs. You (and I) can’t let excitement rule our IFTs.
Agreed Tommy....that’s why I’m considering a buy and hold strategy for the near term....things are too volatile in the market at the moment and our traditional seasonal strategies are just all out of wack at the moment....maybe because we are entering a bear market or maybe it’s all the uncertainty around China and trade, and Mexico or a combination of all things....but what I know is this....the markets don’t like uncertainty....and me with my CERTAIN monthly seasonal strategy have lost money for going on 2 years now....and my number of years till retirement is finite....meaning they all have to count if I’m to make my goals! So my thought is that if I buy and hold and leave it alone until the markets settle down....then maybe I can have a little relaxation until the craziness is over....that’s all I’m considering!
But I’m going to follow my strategy till the end of this month for now and see how it plays out before I decide....there’s a lot to go into my final decision on this still and I can afford a reasonable amount of risk cause I still have at least 20 years till retirement, but at the same time I can’t afford to be losing money month after month following a tried and true system that just ain’t working in the current climate....why throw good money after bad money?
I guess what I’m saying right now is that I’m on the fence....lol!
Cheers!
Cheers!
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04
- jlozano042
- Posts: 836
- Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Damn Joe - very insightful and thank you for taking the time to post.Jmk wrote:Hi all,
I've been watching this site for awhile now but never posted. Your post, jlozano, got me. B&H is not for losers or the cheap way out. I just retired after 30 years as a fed LEO. I was B&H in C,S&I for that entire 30 years and am heading into what I hope will be a secure retirement with 1.5M in my TSP. I am now at a 50/50 stock/bond allocation and will ride that until the end. Why? Because that's all the risk I need to take from here forward. No offense to anyone here, but all the "strategy," hand wringing, voodoo charting, guessing, and everything else that goes on here IMO, is very counter productive, and I'm sure causes many of you great stress. It's just not worth it. No one knows what the market will do. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk appetite and go live your life. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I just wanted to give a real life example that shows B&H does work. Good luck in whatever path you take!!
Joe
For me, and only me, I found within a year time frame and comparing my daily strategy to B&H strategy and the B&H won for most months. But I will say I wasn't 100% into one strategy, I was in 8570 (is that the one that mmmmmmmbeer created?) for about 6 months and then jumped to other that were VERY similar. Anyways ... let's see how this strategy goes.
Thanks again all!
- Billionair
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
I think we will top this week, and trickle back down. Mexico tariffs have been halted for now, with a deal in place. Leaving the big question mark of Big China and where to go, with a potential rate hike. Seasonality is meh, this time of year, until July. I would guess a slow dribble down, and a good buy later this month.
Happy Monday!
Happy Monday!
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
I think the market is also pricing in rumors that the President will be talking to the Chinese delegation at G20 in Japan on the 28th, and a China deal would shoot the market up even more.Billionair wrote:I think we will top this week, and trickle back down. Mexico tariffs have been halted for now, with a deal in place. Leaving the big question mark of Big China and where to go, with a potential rate hike. Seasonality is meh, this time of year, until July. I would guess a slow dribble down, and a good buy later this month.
Happy Monday!
The market is definitely unstable, but between the possible Fed rate cut and possible China trade deal, I think folks are cautiously optimistic about the whole month.
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
Per 2019 Seasonal Musings thread:
"June is pretty much the worst month of the year for the C Fund.
The best years were 1999 (5.54%), 1997 (4.45%) and 2012 (4.13%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.41%), 2002 (-7.10%) and 2010 (-5.24%)."
"June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but at least it’s not as bad as the C or I Funds.
The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 1988 (6.17%) and 1995 (4.82%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%)."
As every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints. As heads is tails just call me.... really confused about the market this past year. I moved to G at the start of May and didn't buy back because the market 'experts' are like those studies that tell you a glass of wine a day will kill you and the next day a different study tells you a glass of wine a day will help you live to 100. A few weeks ago they were predicting a return to last year's Christmas Eve Satan Rally. I missed out on some big losses and some big gains this month - but the Magic 8 Ball seems just as legit as the experts right now and when I ask it should I stay in G it says 'Always, no, sometimes think it's G. But you know, I know when it's a dream. I think a "No," I mean a "Yes" but it's all wrong that is, I think I disagree. Let me take you down...
"June is pretty much the worst month of the year for the C Fund.
The best years were 1999 (5.54%), 1997 (4.45%) and 2012 (4.13%). The worst years were 2008 (-8.41%), 2002 (-7.10%) and 2010 (-5.24%)."
"June is a pretty ugly month for the S Fund, but at least it’s not as bad as the C or I Funds.
The best years were 2000 (12.01%), 1988 (6.17%) and 1995 (4.82%). The worst years were 2008 (-7.63%), 2010 (-6.90%) and 2002 (-6.67%)."
As every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints. As heads is tails just call me.... really confused about the market this past year. I moved to G at the start of May and didn't buy back because the market 'experts' are like those studies that tell you a glass of wine a day will kill you and the next day a different study tells you a glass of wine a day will help you live to 100. A few weeks ago they were predicting a return to last year's Christmas Eve Satan Rally. I missed out on some big losses and some big gains this month - but the Magic 8 Ball seems just as legit as the experts right now and when I ask it should I stay in G it says 'Always, no, sometimes think it's G. But you know, I know when it's a dream. I think a "No," I mean a "Yes" but it's all wrong that is, I think I disagree. Let me take you down...
Re: Up trend or dead cat?
The seasonal strategy does make some sense to me but not sure it's working in this volatile climate. Everything appears reactionary. Trump makes a tweet or Jerome Powell opens his mouth and the markets either dive or climb based on whether or not the tweet/statement is negative or positive.
What I've been doing lately is just following the market news as closely as I can to see which way the wind is blowing. After Trump tweeted about China tariffs in early May the market took a dive I moved to G, stayed there as the news got worse about Mexico tariffs (now the news is coming out that the Mexico tariff was settled weeks ago). Then early this month a reversal on the rhetoric about Mexico (and now maybe even China) and got out of G.
With our limited monthly IFT moves, as someone earlier stated, it's like Russian Roulette. Thankfully we have the ability to move to safety (G) at any time after our 2 IFT moves in the same month. But it's scary.
What I've been doing lately is just following the market news as closely as I can to see which way the wind is blowing. After Trump tweeted about China tariffs in early May the market took a dive I moved to G, stayed there as the news got worse about Mexico tariffs (now the news is coming out that the Mexico tariff was settled weeks ago). Then early this month a reversal on the rhetoric about Mexico (and now maybe even China) and got out of G.
With our limited monthly IFT moves, as someone earlier stated, it's like Russian Roulette. Thankfully we have the ability to move to safety (G) at any time after our 2 IFT moves in the same month. But it's scary.
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |