Bailing out on seasonal strat. Thoughts?

[jlozano042]

100% C all year this year.

Ditto.

I've been having my Spidey-sense tingling for some time ... there are quite a few users with their account creation dates around APR-AUG of 2017. Very simple posts, not that many ... but I think they are from the same single user with multiple accounts. I have no hard evidence but JackKnife quoting himself with a "Ditto" set some alarms off.

* Yes, I know - my account creation is APR 2017 *

This and the fact that user: cswift01 recently was hit with multiple improper-negative reputations from accounts (Vertigo, DonkeyKong, rockfish, mendez, moonbeam, SpeedDemon, Capitalism) very similar to these observations either means I'm getting old and turning into an asshole or I have the beginnings of a cyber-sleuth.

What do you guys think?

[Aitrus]

I've been keeping an eye on things. Behind the scenes, I'm not seeing the same things as last time. I think we're ok for the time being, but thanks for helping me keep tabs on this kind of stuff.

[jlozano042]

I've been keeping an eye on things. Behind the scenes, I'm not seeing the same things as last time. I think we're ok for the time being, but thanks for helping me keep tabs on this kind of stuff.

Aye ... I may need to calm down a bit. Perhaps I should have a coke and a smile.

Thanks Aitrus for the hard work you do for this site.

[Aitrus]

It's all good, man. We all do our bits in our own small ways. One of mine is to be here, doing what I do.

[Carmen909]

100% C all year this year.

Ditto.

I've been having my Spidey-sense tingling for some time ... there are quite a few users with their account creation dates around APR-AUG of 2017. Very simple posts, not that many ... but I think they are from the same single user with multiple accounts. I have no hard evidence but JackKnife quoting himself with a "Ditto" set some alarms off.

* Yes, I know - my account creation is APR 2017 *

This and the fact that user: cswift01 recently was hit with multiple improper-negative reputations from accounts (Vertigo, DonkeyKong, rockfish, mendez, moonbeam, SpeedDemon, Capitalism) very similar to these observations either means I'm getting old and turning into an asshole or I have the beginnings of a cyber-sleuth.

What do you guys think?

I think you’re onto something. Vertigo is also trolling me along with Fiona, MAGA, Bloobs, Korvinsky. All because I mentioned that there seem to be more trolls on this site than usual.

[Fredo]

With so many seasonal strats going to S fund today, I'm wondering what most people are thinking about with all the trade talk rhetoric in the news. I've made some classic bad moves this year, started with a strategy not in the S fund for January- rode it out too long. Then jumped to follow the leaders. Did this a couple of times, got stuck in G fund too early a couple of times.
Been following a strat for two months now, but my gut is telling me its gonna go bad next week...I'm a big boy and can live with my decisions, but anyway, what do you guys think?
Just wondering.

Well there are a lot of Seasonal folks who are happy campers right now because they're in F fund. Many of them move back to S fund next Friday. Could be good timing...or not.

[Sky5HD]

I'm one of those happy campers.

[Fredo]

Not bad all things considered.

[Beltway]

I've been in C/S most of the year. Took a big hit lately but I'm staying put for now.

[rampart]

Looking like strategies might be working.

[amazonman]

Looking like strategies might be working.

I'm determined to stick it out for the entire year.

[Bitcoin]

I'm trying to stay strong.

[Ericdelee]

Looking like strategies might be working.

I'm determined to stick it out for the entire year.

I’ve kept pretty spot in with my strat of 19486. I had a goof up on day where I was in Colorado and forgot to make changes due to the time change. But that was a good thing as I had great gains.

The only thing I’ve really done different: I have occasionally taken strategical pauses due to not being able to make changes according to the Strat with my job and other things going on. So in cases like that, if I was already up 2% for the month, there was no sweat off my back to drop it all in the G fund for the remainder of the month. So I haven’t followed 100% of the strat, but pretty close. I can’t argue with 22%.

But I am a bit worried about the next few months after last year wiped out all gains

[Horaenaut]

Looking like strategies might be working.

I'm determined to stick it out for the entire year.

I’ve kept pretty spot in with my strat of 19486. I had a goof up on day where I was in Colorado and forgot to make changes due to the time change. But that was a good thing as I had great gains.

The only thing I’ve really done different: I have occasionally taken strategical pauses due to not being able to make changes according to the Strat with my job and other things going on. So in cases like that, if I was already up 2% for the month, there was no sweat off my back to drop it all in the G fund for the remainder of the month. So I haven’t followed 100% of the strat, but pretty close. I can’t argue with 22%.

But I am a bit worried about the next few months after last year wiped out all gains

Ericdelee -- I thought you were going to try a "get at least 1% and then run back to the G Fund every month" strategy? I've been watching you and you seem to be doing pretty well at that. I was thinking I might give that a shot myself.

[Rothwell]

Something to keep in mind, when you create a strategy utilizing data from previous years, the results you get are “optimized” around whatever criteria you set:

2004 – 2018 Mean ALL Funds = 68355

Looking back at 2018 you see an impressive 20.74 for the mean, however if you go back and create a strategy that you could have created to actually use for 2018, you get:

2004 – 2017 Mean ALL Funds = 68353

Now move it forward a year and you will see how that strategy actually would have performed which is a not so impressive -3.63.

For fun, check out the “Seasonal Blind Tests”, “Case 1: Highest Mean, All Funds”, year 2018 and follow it all the way to the right and you get -3.63.

If you want to know how any of these strategys actually would have worked, you can add each number all the way to the right for each year and then divide by the number of years (I know it is a simple average and not a compounding average but it still gives something that is close enough).

Using "Case 1" again, adding 2009 - 2018 and dividing it by 10 (years) you get a simple average of 7.99%. To compare from the TSP.gov "Individual Funds Annual Returns (10 Yr Summary)" from 2009 - 2018 the C fund averaged 13.17% and the S fund 13.67%...