Seasonal Slump is upon us

[TSPsmart]

***

"Unthinkable Harm" provides my take on last week's market action and some warnings for the future. Also some warnings to watch for.

It's not how they taught it in investment finance... but unlearning is sometimes required in life.

Also consider, we are entering one of the weakest seasonal timeframes of the year,

Cheers,

[Gringoloco]

So with expectations now that the fed will cut just .25 basis points vs. .50 I’m hearing it’s not gonna be enough to boost equities with all the other headwinds picking up. It’s still a cut with others likely coming later in the year, so do you see the F fund steadily rising from that point on? I thought the general rule was that when interests rates trend downwards, yields drop and bond funds rise in value...but are there other variables to consider when it comes to the F fund. Thanks

[cswift01]

***

"Unthinkable Harm" provides my take on last week's market action and some warnings for the future. Also some warnings to watch for.

It's not how they taught it in investment finance... but unlearning is sometimes required in life.

Also consider, we are entering one of the weakest seasonal timeframes of the year,

Cheers,

I'm not expecting a steller 2nd half either. I also am worried about corporate debt, which makes the F Fund questionable to me. I think corporate debt mixed with buybacks are bubble territory. That makes AGG a bit iffy...to me.

[TSP Jedi]

Until the market puts in a trend change I will continue to buy the dips

[danno50]

***

"Unthinkable Harm" provides my take on last week's market action and some warnings for the future. Also some warnings to watch for.

It's not how they taught it in investment finance... but unlearning is sometimes required in life.

Also consider, we are entering one of the weakest seasonal timeframes of the year,

Cheers,

I'm not expecting a steller 2nd half either. I also am worried about corporate debt, which makes the F Fund questionable to me. I think corporate debt mixed with buybacks are bubble territory. That makes AGG a bit iffy...to me.

We're no where near bubble territory.

[ArrieS]

***

"Unthinkable Harm" provides my take on last week's market action and some warnings for the future. Also some warnings to watch for.

It's not how they taught it in investment finance... but unlearning is sometimes required in life.

Also consider, we are entering one of the weakest seasonal timeframes of the year,

Cheers,

I'm not expecting a steller 2nd half either. I also am worried about corporate debt, which makes the F Fund questionable to me. I think corporate debt mixed with buybacks are bubble territory. That makes AGG a bit iffy...to me.

We're no where near bubble territory.

- Somebody, 23 October 1929

[Dallas]

Here comes the "sky is falling" crew. Grab some popcorn.

[cswift01]

Here comes the "sky is falling" crew. Grab some popcorn.

We could counter by saying "here come the guys that will miss the bus." Where's my beer? I don't see any point to make fun of people. Just say you disagree and give your reasons (mine are based on the inversion lasting over 3 months) https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-offi ... om-horizon.

What are yours?

[jlozano042]

Here comes the "sky is falling" crew. Grab some popcorn.

We could counter by saying "here come the guys that will miss the bus." Where's my beer? I don't see any point to make fun of people. Just say you disagree and give your reasons (mine are based on the inversion lasting over 3 months) https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-offi ... om-horizon.

What are yours?

Touché my friend!



Wanted to give you some good rep points but the system wont let me.

[Tomanyiron]

Our government’s ongoing imbroglios have made for a confused market.

[cswift01]

Here comes the "sky is falling" crew. Grab some popcorn.

We could counter by saying "here come the guys that will miss the bus." Where's my beer? I don't see any point to make fun of people. Just say you disagree and give your reasons (mine are based on the inversion lasting over 3 months) https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-offi ... om-horizon.

What are yours?

Touché my friend!



Thanks! I hope you're killing it ths year in the TSP. This could be a visual approximation:



Best

[TSPsmart]

***

Hmmmm... "We're no where near bubble territory"

I agree, we left that behind a long-time ago when we reached NEVERLAND!

“I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it,'” Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said at a conference hosted by the BOJ on Thursday.

Japan Times 2015

So what happens if we get a 0.5% interest rate "insurance cut" and the market tanks anyway and the economy continues into a recession

[Gringoloco]

So, hasn’t the F fund held up well in all previous corrections and crashes? Or is G fund the only safe place because this time may be different?

[TSP Jedi]

Bought the F'n dip today..... another leg higher

[cswift01]

Funny, I'm getting ugly messages that I'm being political somehow. I don't see it. I'm suggesting to give evidence of people's opinions or at the least showing my sources of my opinions on the economy. I didn't mention parties or politics. Check out the trolls deducting my points. Their comments say nothing, but imply my interpretation of the inverted yield curve is political somehow...

Aitrus, it would be nice to remove the reputation points. It gives people the option to troll you without discussion. There is nothing added to the discussion here at all.

Shame how things are going these days.

Good luck investing all.