C Fund Bear Flag/Wedge.....

[TSP Jedi]

C fund is now in a Bear Flag pattern. A big leg down, then back and forth in a trading range/box, and then should have a continuation move/ another big leg down. I'm very surprised to see people buying C fund today at the top of the box/range.

[Tomanyiron]

I have been looking at that also, and went looking for a good descriptive video.
Bearish Flag Pattern Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFtr50Dp3pA
We may get a bump above the rectangle today. And that looks like what he describes about 3/4 of the way into the video.

[VAmanBulls]

People are working, people are spending. Earnings are slowing but still positive. Stock prices following earnings. Another rate cut in Sept? Hong Kong calming. Many see a 2020 S&P of 3100 to 3400. China deal too? A bear will happen, but will be short and weak. You gotta play to win.

[Horaenaut]

Yep, very clear bear flag. I think the folks buying C are just following their seasonal strategies, but it seems like a dangerous time to follow that particular IFT given all the signs pointing towards a correction: the flag, bond yield inversions, construction and manufacturing indexes down, agricultural futures, etc.

And VAmanBulls, you might be right--there are some notable positives that could pump the market up (trade deal, rate cuts, brexit resolution), but I don't see them as drivers of the economy, just some things that can eliminate certain bubble burst triggers. Even the bullish seem to agree a correction is coming (even though they say it will be shallow), and I don't see a lot of resilience to slow or stop a deep slide. Debt is high, global and US projections are down as sectors across the board are reporting missing past projections, market volatility is up because of central bank distortions, big tech overvaluations, and the rise of questions about the impact of index fund passive investing. I think we are all forseeing a downturn, none of us knows how soon it will be triggered or how deep it will be. I'm spooked.

Edit: I accidentally wrote bearish, when I clearly intended to say bullish--fixed for clarity.

[bloobs]

Yep, very clear bear flag. I think the folks buying C are just following their seasonal strategies, but it seems like a dangerous time to follow that particular IFT given all the signs pointing towards a correction: the flag, bond yield inversions, construction and manufacturing indexes down, agricultural futures, etc.

And VAmanBulls, you might be right--there are some notable positives that could pump the market up (trade deal, rate cuts, brexit resolution), but I don't see them as drivers of the economy, just some things that can eliminate certain bubble burst triggers. Even the bearish seem to agree a correction is coming (even though they say it will be shallow), and I don't see a lot of resilience to slow or stop a deep slide. Debt is high, global and US projections are down as sectors across the board are reporting missing past projections, market volatility is up because of central bank distortions, big tech overvaluations, and the rise of questions about the impact of index fund passive investing. I think we are all forseeing a downturn, none of us knows how soon it will be triggered or how deep it will be. I'm spooked.

Your arguments above are rational....but the market is/has/will continue to behave IRRATIONALLY.

[HighRisk]

That is certain.

[Tomanyiron]

On a smaller scale, what's happening now, looks a lot like what happed last year about this same time.

[Jalpunk]

How does this China trade talk news play into the bear flag theory? Is this market jump today going to come down tomorrow? Its very tempting to jump from my 50/50 C-S split that I bought weeks ago today. What to do???

[VAmanBulls]

Yes, agree. Very good points made. And this all ties into your risk tolerance and the investment season you are in. But the question was why are folks like me buying into the C. Simply put, I am betting Sept will be a positive gain month. The risk is reasonable to me because I don't think the recession will hit until mid calendar year 2020 or later. I think earnings will support a S&P at or above 3100. But to bloobs' point, we are riding an irrational market.

[Stitch]

How does this China trade talk news play into the bear flag theory? Is this market jump today going to come down tomorrow? Its very tempting to jump from my 50/50 C-S split that I bought weeks ago today. What to do???

When a deal is struck I see huge upside.

[3240moy]

Everyone must asses their own Risk to Reward threshold. In my opinion the reward isn't their this close to past highs even if continuation pattern breaks to the upside (flag part). Until new trend is established I believe safer to hold tight with current position.

[Stitch]

I'm staying put anyway. I still think the market has considerable room to run.

[dougellen1]

"When a deal is struck I see huge upside."
...If a deal is struck!!! Big if...