Wait, the sky is not falling?

[VAmanBulls]

Inverted curve, international weakness. Debt oh my. I thought we were seconds from a 30% loss recession. Will the bulls make a run into the fall? Still some gas in this record market tank? I think so and apparently Powell does too. And when is the Prez gonna play that China deal Ace card?

[Horaenaut]

Inverted curve, international weakness. Debt oh my. I thought we were seconds from a 30% loss recession. Will the bulls make a run into the fall? Still some gas in this record market tank? I think so and apparently Powell does too. And when is the Prez gonna play that China deal Ace card?

Despite being a temporarily stymied bear (for one day ), no Fed Chair has ever said "We're forecasting a recession," and that includes in 2007 when we were in a recession. Powell's statement doesn't line up with the fact that they cut rates while the S&P was hitting record highs, and are now talking about how they did not cut enough.

It takes two to make a deal, and at this point China has nearly no incentive to deal before the election, so any trade deal would mean the U.S. had to give significant concessions to boost the economy before voting begins.

And I'm still wary that the unemployment rate (a lagging indicator) bottomed at the start of every recession since at least 1970--like it is doing today.

I'm not predicting a recession before the 18th. Hell, I'm hoping the thing continues to rocket up for Monday and Tuesday so I can sell--but just because your end of the ship is going up in the air doesn't mean the Titanic isn't sinking.

[TSP Jedi]

It's panic buying, FOMO, and short covering

[Stitch]

Inverted curve, international weakness. Debt oh my. I thought we were seconds from a 30% loss recession. Will the bulls make a run into the fall? Still some gas in this record market tank? I think so and apparently Powell does too. And when is the Prez gonna play that China deal Ace card?

I too think the China deal is going to happen. It's only a matter of timing.

[Kilroy]

Starting to look like we might get another rate cut soon.

[PhilJohn]

Not worried about a recession. Worst case senerio no deal gets done. I think China can be ultmatly replaced with other trade partners, if they dont agree to stop cheating us. As far as the "sky is falling" analogy, We have been told that since the night of the last Presidential election. If some people were foolish enough to believe it, then they probably missed out on a historic oppertunity to make a lot of money. Not my problem. No room for political tribalism when it comes to investing.

[Scorpio70]

I have made some money on this market for sure, but I have a feeling we will see a major correction at sometime in the near future. The only thing I am interested in really, is how do we profit from it.

[Kilroy]

Not worried about a recession. Worst case senerio no deal gets done. I think China can be ultmatly replaced with other trade partners, if they dont agree to stop cheating us. As far as the "sky is falling" analogy, We have been told that since the night of the last Presidential election. If some people were foolish enough to believe it, then they probably missed out on a historic oppertunity to make a lot of money. Not my problem. No room for political tribalism when it comes to investing.

Well said.

[PhilJohn]

I have made some money on this market for sure, but I have a feeling we will see a major correction at sometime in the near future. The only thing I am interested in really, is how do we profit from it.

Of course it will happen. No way of knowing when. When it does, I plan to benefit from it.

[ArrieS]

Manufacturing declined, finally.

This is what we have to remember with Trump and the tariffs. When he implemented them and what the tariffs were applied to.

The first round was announced March 22, 2018. The administration added new tariffs each time trying to avoid ones that would have the largest immediate impact on consumers.

The first round of tariffs in March 22, 2018 were for inputs into manufacturing, not end products. When they were announced and the time between when they were placed was enough time for companies to stock pile their needs. Now that has run out and they are forced to purchase at higher prices so they have to raise prices.

I believe this is why we saw the decline. It was the price increase they eventually had to push through which lead to weaker demand.

So what does that mean for us and the broader economy? There will be a delay because companies that are now having tariffs levied on consumer end products have a chance to stock up.

In truth, we have to wait for the stock piles to be sold off before we will really see it.

I think China can be ultmatly replaced with other trade partners, if they dont agree to stop cheating us.

This isn't an option. Trump has targeted everyone. Companies can't shift their supply lines because Trump is prone to go after any country. Vietnam is the best alternative for replacing China and Trump is already threatening them.

There are no good choices. Because Trump will attempt to drum up support by going after any country that is perceived to be taking American jobs.

[PhilJohn]

Then stay out of the market if thats what your voices are telling you. I'm going to keep growing my accounts.

[ArrieS]

Then stay out of the market if thats what your voices are telling you. I'm going to keep growing my accounts.

Wow, what an intellectual and well thought out response. I stand in awe of your intellect.

[Kilroy]

Then stay out of the market if thats what your voices are telling you. I'm going to keep growing my accounts.

Make sense to me. If one doesn't have the risk tolerance for a volatile market, they shouldn't be in equities to begin with. Markets will have corrections. But they will also have recoveries, and that's where we make our money. These are just the facts.

[VAmanBulls]

Of course it will happen. No way of knowing when. When it does, I plan to benefit from it.

So what's your plan? Are you talking within the TSP? Move into the Bond market or just buy low? I wish TSP would provide an Inverse Fund we could jump into or precious metals fund for a solid Bear market.

[Optimus187]

Not worried about a recession. Worst case senerio no deal gets done. I think China can be ultmatly replaced with other trade partners, if they dont agree to stop cheating us. As far as the "sky is falling" analogy, We have been told that since the night of the last Presidential election. If some people were foolish enough to believe it, then they probably missed out on a historic oppertunity to make a lot of money. Not my problem. No room for political tribalism when it comes to investing.

What a great post. This is what sound logic sounds like.