It's all about China

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VAmanBulls
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

It's all about China

Post by VAmanBulls »

Few will argue that the markets will pop to the upside when a China deal is struck. The questions is when. Who wants to be on the sideline when the announcement is made? Not me.
But when? China growth is at a 27 year low. Jan 2018 GDP was 6.8, July 6.2 and the forecast for Jan 2020 is 5.7. How long can they hold out? Will they wait for the election? Big gamble if the Art of the Deal author stays. Can a China deal divert the looming recession? And finally, who else out there likes Alibaba (BABA) when a deal is done?

crockett
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:34 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by crockett »

China will not risk waiting for the 2020 election. They're severely wounded and bleeding out. Look for a deal this year. IMHO.

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TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by TSP Jedi »

You don't have to be the first one to the party(China deal), you just have to show up and have a good time while it lasts.

Optimus187
Posts: 121
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by Optimus187 »

VAmanBulls wrote:Few will argue that the markets will pop to the upside when a China deal is struck. The questions is when. Who wants to be on the sideline when the announcement is made? Not me.
But when? China growth is at a 27 year low. Jan 2018 GDP was 6.8, July 6.2 and the forecast for Jan 2020 is 5.7. How long can they hold out? Will they wait for the election? Big gamble if the Art of the Deal author stays. Can a China deal divert the looming recession? And finally, who else out there likes Alibaba (BABA) when a deal is done?

BABA has to come back and I'm holding a bag right now so there is that. :lol: :lol:

Great to see you are looking at the long game and at how bad China is doing in this trade deal. (aka: Not listening to Fakenews) No way they can hold off until 2020, some type of deal will be made and those that trust the process will be going to the Moon

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TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by TSP Jedi »

So explain to me how with NO China deal the SPY on Aug 23 was like 285 and has rallied to 302 today?

VAmanBulls
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by VAmanBulls »

Well would you look at that, we got some 'gestures of good will' going on. I think it may be time to show up and have a good time Jedi, ha. We got room, no cover charge. Hey Dollar Tree and Five Below look like winners with a deal also. I think the rally represents my thoughts on previous posts. Stock prices typically follow earnings. Earning are still good. Folks are working and spending. A rate cut is gaining momentum and now good will gestures. I think it's going to be a good fall season. Small Caps poised for some action. But who knows right.

Optimus187
Posts: 121
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by Optimus187 »

TSP Jedi wrote:So explain to me how with NO China deal the SPY on Aug 23 was like 285 and has rallied to 302 today?
From Bloomberg:

Trump said he was moving back a 5% increase in tariffs on a swathe of Chinese imports by two weeks. China on Wednesday announced a range of U.S. goods to be exempted from 25% extra tariffs put in place last year, as the government seeks to ease the impact from the trade war.

Negotiations look to be moving along and both sides are willing to back off a bit. Thats a good thing. Not a bad thing

crockett
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:34 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by crockett »

Yep it seems like we're at least talking again. That's good news.

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by ArrieS »

crockett wrote:China will not risk waiting for the 2020 election. They're severely wounded and bleeding out. Look for a deal this year. IMHO.
They're bleeding out when their GDP is is double ours?

GDP number is an aggregate. It's both service and manufacturing. Manufacturing is down, but service is up, and going strong. The Chinese Government wants to transform to a service based economy. If services is still going strong than the Chinese Government knows their internal economy is still strong.

Manufacturing can be reclaimed after the trade war. We also need to keep in mind that although the US has tariffs on China, total world exports from China have continued to grow.

The US however is in a much different position. Both our manufacturing and service sectors are slowing. Both the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and New York have revised our third quarter GDP growth to 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

PhilJohn
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by PhilJohn »

Weird, I thought our economy was growing while china was contracting.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-says ... 1567960192

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by ArrieS »

PhilJohn wrote:Weird, I thought our economy was growing while china was contracting.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-says ... 1567960192
While you shared an article behind a pay wall. Do you really have a subscription or are you just posting an article you googled that supports your position with out reading it?

If you do have a subscription I'd love for you to quote the parts you like.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by tspwizard1 »

Optimus187 wrote:
VAmanBulls wrote:Few will argue that the markets will pop to the upside when a China deal is struck. The questions is when. Who wants to be on the sideline when the announcement is made? Not me.
But when? China growth is at a 27 year low. Jan 2018 GDP was 6.8, July 6.2 and the forecast for Jan 2020 is 5.7. How long can they hold out? Will they wait for the election? Big gamble if the Art of the Deal author stays. Can a China deal divert the looming recession? And finally, who else out there likes Alibaba (BABA) when a deal is done?

BABA has to come back and I'm holding a bag right now so there is that. :lol: :lol:

Great to see you are looking at the long game and at how bad China is doing in this trade deal. (aka: Not listening to Fakenews) No way they can hold off until 2020, some type of deal will be made and those that trust the process will be going to the Moon
The USA is bleeding jobs. And good luck trying to out wait the Chinese. The whole fake news thing is really honestly scary, but hey keep watching your Fox ENTERTAINMENT, which isn't news and doesn't claim to be. Me paying a tariff tax to farmers for unsold crops is socialism. I miss the days when Republicans didn't blindly follow a wanna be dictator.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-tra ... estimates/

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by ArrieS »

Let's not forget the record number of small farm bankruptcies. Leading to the destruction of the American farmer and rise of giant agro businesses which will reap the benefits of farm aid eventhough it was meant for small farmers.

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-lo ... are-rising
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

PhilJohn
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: It's all about China

Post by PhilJohn »

Yeah you right. Better stay in G-Fund. Making money is way overrated. Damn the man.

Those poor farmers.... lol you're a nut.

Optimus187
Posts: 121
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: It's all about China

Post by Optimus187 »

tspwizard1 wrote:
Optimus187 wrote:
VAmanBulls wrote:Few will argue that the markets will pop to the upside when a China deal is struck. The questions is when. Who wants to be on the sideline when the announcement is made? Not me.
But when? China growth is at a 27 year low. Jan 2018 GDP was 6.8, July 6.2 and the forecast for Jan 2020 is 5.7. How long can they hold out? Will they wait for the election? Big gamble if the Art of the Deal author stays. Can a China deal divert the looming recession? And finally, who else out there likes Alibaba (BABA) when a deal is done?

BABA has to come back and I'm holding a bag right now so there is that. :lol: :lol:

Great to see you are looking at the long game and at how bad China is doing in this trade deal. (aka: Not listening to Fakenews) No way they can hold off until 2020, some type of deal will be made and those that trust the process will be going to the Moon
The USA is bleeding jobs. And good luck trying to out wait the Chinese. The whole fake news thing is really honestly scary, but hey keep watching your Fox ENTERTAINMENT, which isn't news and doesn't claim to be. Me paying a tariff tax to farmers for unsold crops is socialism. I miss the days when Republicans didn't blindly follow a wanna be dictator.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-tra ... estimates/
.

Making assumptions about what I watch is even scarier, but hey TDS is hell of a disease so I understand. I too hate that damn dictator that cut my taxes and let me take home more money. How can he continue to get away with it. Lol.....crazyness

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