I'm looking for a low
Moderator: Aitrus
I'm looking for a low
Expecting a bottom to be out in soon. Maybe a short term bottom but it should produce a huge relief rally.
Re: I'm looking for a low
According to my Youtube Chart guy at MyStrategicForecast, maybe a low around S&P 2350-2400 (SPY 235-240). He talks about these numbers at 3:20.
https://youtu.be/EtLSCERmQGI
Good luck everyone.
Trying to follow 67923
https://youtu.be/EtLSCERmQGI
Good luck everyone.
Trying to follow 67923
Re: I'm looking for a low
If you are long term, the exact bottom isn’t as important as not missing out the rebound. Lows can be retested, but positive news can keep things from bottoming further. Find a level you are comfortable with if it goes down more from here.
Re: I'm looking for a low
What is your method to determine this and where do you anticipate resistance before the next leg down? Not disputing your claim, just looking to gather more evidence. I started nibbling in yesterday with a small position; might want to expand that position if it looks promising.TSP Jedi wrote:Expecting a bottom to be out in soon. Maybe a short term bottom but it should produce a huge relief rally.
Re: I'm looking for a low
I found this site recently it shows a whole lot of indicators / resistance. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/cheat-sheetTSP Jedi wrote:Expecting a bottom to be out in soon. Maybe a short term bottom but it should produce a huge relief rally.
I've only barely scratched the surface on learning these.
14 day RSI at 30% was crossed yesterday for oversold. Back above today.
S&P didn't reach 14 day RSI at 20% which would have been 2133.47.
The new 14 day RSI at 20% is 2158.27.
The new 14 day RSI at 30% is 2556.7.
Yesterdays close was 2480.64. I would guess the bottom would be somewhere between 2158 and 2556. Was yesterday the bottom? From today's perspective I'd say yes. But, there are a whole lot of other things to unwind with this - and not many of them sound good for the short term.
-
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:49 pm
Re: I'm looking for a low
Markets up 9% and more today? I don't know how anyone can make sense of this. Such massive rises and falls make me worry. Is this the bottom and the market will just continue to soar up while I'm in G? Or will it be "the bigger they are, the harder they fall"?
Good luck with your TSP and retirement plans!
Re: I'm looking for a low
Well there is the term dead cat bounce, which usually recoups about 50 percent of losses before falling again. Very rarely is a rally v shaped. This weekend will be telling regarding news headlines. A stimulus package deal next week would probably be good news to the market.
Re: I'm looking for a low
I hadn't seen this site before. Looks helpful in guiding short-term goals. Thanks for sharing.TopComm wrote: I found this site recently it shows a whole lot of indicators / resistance. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/cheat-sheet
I've only barely scratched the surface on learning these.
14 day RSI at 30% was crossed yesterday for oversold. Back above today.
Re: I'm looking for a low
I didn’t hear any updates during the press conference regarding a stimulus package. Did I miss it? Also, have there been any updates on a payroll tax cut or is it still being negotiated? A PTC would be great.Neuronic wrote:Well there is the term dead cat bounce, which usually recoups about 50 percent of losses before falling again. Very rarely is a rally v shaped. This weekend will be telling regarding news headlines. A stimulus package deal next week would probably be good news to the market.
Re: I'm looking for a low
A deal would be national news and hopefully comes out next week. With that said, bill gates stepping down from board and Microsoft down after hours. More cruise companies halting after hours. Probably another choppy week ahead? More importantly though, really hoping Italy’s numbers come down this week.
Re: I'm looking for a low
We are where Italy was 7-10 days ago and now look at them. I fear the worse is yet to come. This is way worse than I had expected. The economic fallout is just beginning, it will drag on for a while. Schools in my area were ordered shut down for 3 weeks today. For us Gov employees not such a big deal, but for the guy down the street who works construction, the HVAC tech, and the guy that runs his own business don't get paid time off like we do. For them, no work = no pay. No pay = no discretionary spending, not making car payments, rent/mortgage fall behind. 2008 all over again.
Maybe the market has priced all this in, but based on my gut we have a ways to go.
Maybe the market has priced all this in, but based on my gut we have a ways to go.
Re: I'm looking for a low
Yes, right now EVERYTHING screams of a 40-50% drop. The sky is falling. Everything is shutting down....there is NO way stocks can go anywhere but DOWN. That probably means the market will take off to the upside. These multi billion dollar hedge funds and institutions who control the market love to “trick, trap, fool and frustrate” the dumb money (which, I am sorry to inform you is us). It can go up with no real reason and drop for no real reason. If it wasn’t the corona virus it would have been something else. It is just a wealth transfer. They have a lot of brilliant people working for them so don’t try to outsmart them. This sounds a I am a conspiracy theorist. I am not, just a dummy who has been fooled by these schemes too many times. Just look at my YTD...20% down the rat hole. I am beginning to think buy and hold is best. That is the only way not to get suckered into giving your shares to the rich.
Re: I'm looking for a low
Octjan2 wrote:Yes, right now EVERYTHING screams of a 40-50% drop. The sky is falling. Everything is shutting down....there is NO way stocks can go anywhere but DOWN. That probably means the market will take off to the upside. These multi billion dollar hedge funds and institutions who control the market love to “trick, trap, fool and frustrate” the dumb money (which, I am sorry to inform you is us). It can go up with no real reason and drop for no real reason. If it wasn’t the corona virus it would have been something else. It is just a wealth transfer. They have a lot of brilliant people working for them so don’t try to outsmart them. This sounds a I am a conspiracy theorist. I am not, just a dummy who has been fooled by these schemes too many times. Just look at my YTD...20% down the rat hole. I am beginning to think buy and hold is best. That is the only way not to get suckered into giving your shares to the rich.
Trick, Trap, Fool and Frustrate...... Trick & Co
Re: I'm looking for a low
Mrexter wrote:According to my Youtube Chart guy at MyStrategicForecast, maybe a low around S&P 2350-2400 (SPY 235-240). He talks about these numbers at 3:20.
https://youtu.be/EtLSCERmQGI
Good luck everyone.
Trying to follow 67923
How long have you been watching this guys vids and do you watch every night?
Re: I'm looking for a low
When you see toilet paper fully stocked in the store - we will have finished the bottom - I expect huge down Monday. I think I will have to patent the toilet paper stock indicator.TopComm wrote:I found this site recently it shows a whole lot of indicators / resistance. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/cheat-sheetTSP Jedi wrote:Expecting a bottom to be out in soon. Maybe a short term bottom but it should produce a huge relief rally.
I've only barely scratched the surface on learning these.
14 day RSI at 30% was crossed yesterday for oversold. Back above today.
S&P didn't reach 14 day RSI at 20% which would have been 2133.47.
The new 14 day RSI at 20% is 2158.27.
The new 14 day RSI at 30% is 2556.7.
Yesterdays close was 2480.64. I would guess the bottom would be somewhere between 2158 and 2556. Was yesterday the bottom? From today's perspective I'd say yes. But, there are a whole lot of other things to unwind with this - and not many of them sound good for the short term.
Fund Prices2024-05-10
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.24 | 0.01% | 1.54% |
F | $18.86 | -0.22% | -1.88% |
C | $81.82 | 0.18% | 10.02% |
S | $80.25 | -0.32% | 4.10% |
I | $42.79 | 0.31% | 6.48% |
L2065 | $16.31 | 0.16% | 7.91% |
L2060 | $16.32 | 0.16% | 7.91% |
L2055 | $16.32 | 0.16% | 7.92% |
L2050 | $32.61 | 0.12% | 6.56% |
L2045 | $14.86 | 0.11% | 6.24% |
L2040 | $54.24 | 0.10% | 5.94% |
L2035 | $14.31 | 0.09% | 5.58% |
L2030 | $47.61 | 0.09% | 5.24% |
L2025 | $13.16 | 0.05% | 3.55% |
Linc | $25.66 | 0.04% | 3.01% |