Sell in May and go away?

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soccermoth
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:09 am

Sell in May and go away?

Post by soccermoth »

I am thinking about moving my real TSP money 100% to C/S/I today (April 29) which would be effective tomorrow night. I have never been an active re-balancer so I am not sure if I am reading the rules correctly. I think I could then implement a cost averaging strategy that minimizes the risk I pick the one "good" or "bad" day and get into G by the end of the month, by moving 5% of my funds per day into G. That is 20 inter-fund transfers in one month but seems like it would be allowed since every transfer is into G. Do you think I am right that I could do a daily transfer in this manner?

I am thinking that all of the Congressional actions will keep the market afloat for at least a month but eventually the piper must be paid and we will see another crash.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Sell in May and go away?

Post by fordest »

You are thinking correctly. After your first two moves, you only have to make sure that only the G fund is increasing. The other funds can have <1% increases. For example say around the middle of the month you are at 50.45% G - 16.51% S - 16.52% C - 16.52% I, You could re-balance to many different scenarios. But one would include: 55% G - 17% S - 17% C - 11% I

Notice S and C increased? But as long as it's less than 1%.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

PhilJohn
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: Sell in May and go away?

Post by PhilJohn »

I didn't know you could do that. Very interesting.

ProduceMan
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:01 pm

Re: Sell in May and go away?

Post by ProduceMan »

fordest wrote:You are thinking correctly. After your first two moves, you only have to make sure that only the G fund is increasing. The other funds can have <1% increases. For example say around the middle of the month you are at 50.45% G - 16.51% S - 16.52% C - 16.52% I, You could re-balance to many different scenarios. But one would include: 55% G - 17% S - 17% C - 11% I

Notice S and C increased? But as long as it's less than 1%.
Yes Sir, I just did #6 for real TSP.
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Sell in May and go away?

Post by 12squared »

soccermoth wrote:I am thinking about moving my real TSP money 100% to C/S/I today (April 29) which would be effective tomorrow night. I have never been an active re-balancer so I am not sure if I am reading the rules correctly. I think I could then implement a cost averaging strategy that minimizes the risk I pick the one "good" or "bad" day and get into G by the end of the month, by moving 5% of my funds per day into G. That is 20 inter-fund transfers in one month but seems like it would be allowed since every transfer is into G. Do you think I am right that I could do a daily transfer in this manner?
I faded into G 7 times in April, making it 9 IFTs for the month.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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Fund Prices2024-04-18

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.19 0.01% 1.27%
F $18.62 -0.30% -3.14%
C $78.45 -0.21% 5.50%
S $76.12 -0.20% -1.27%
I $40.67 0.02% 1.21%
L2065 $15.58 -0.13% 3.04%
L2060 $15.58 -0.13% 3.04%
L2055 $15.58 -0.13% 3.04%
L2050 $31.35 -0.13% 2.44%
L2045 $14.32 -0.12% 2.35%
L2040 $52.37 -0.11% 2.29%
L2035 $13.85 -0.10% 2.21%
L2030 $46.21 -0.09% 2.15%
L2025 $12.93 -0.05% 1.72%
Linc $25.28 -0.04% 1.51%

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