Just Like clockwork...

[jatelle]

SPY closed over $460 on volume on Friday. More DarkPool influx below price could be hinting that we have started to breakout of the consolidation and are ready for another leg higher into EOY. It is now 6 straight green weeks, longest streak since November 2019. On the Economic calendar we have CPI and FOMC being the two biggest on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. A surprise with either could quickly throw a wrench in things, but either way Big Money is going to use it to get price to where it was meant to go this entire time.

The Window of Strength remains open until Friday when we have a Triple Witching OPEX.

[jatelle]

Interesting observation about the breadth of this rally. Today the Nasdaq was +0.85%

[jatelle]

The journey to All Time Highs continues on schedule with J Pow saying what investors have been chomping at the bit to hear in order to get the market doing what it was most likely going to do this entire time since Nov. 1. Highest volume day in a month. SPY closing at highs over 470.

Can we keep ripping tomorrow and Friday? Sure maybe...but I think digestion is more likely next.

[jimcasada]

I see two news stories today: one says Dow closes at "all time high," and another says that most Americans believe we are "already in a recession." Something not adding up right...

[jatelle]

I see two news stories today: one says Dow closes at "all time high," and another says that most Americans believe we are "already in a recession." Something not adding up right...

Jim, I am with you - it does not add up. I've given up trying to square this circle.

This is why recently I focus all my energy on learning chart Price Action (PA). IMHO, PA is the most reliable guide for investors nowadays. The charts will tell us where the market is going far better than the news stories on the economy, politics, corporate Earnings, and sadly even better than the Seasonals (sorry Aitrus - even though they are still very helpful). For instance, Bloobs was correct that the first two weeks of December are seasonally weak, but the PA in late November was telling us a different story. Many folks retreated to G when they should have stayed in. When PA speaks believe it!

[12squared]

When PA speaks believe it!

The challenge is determining truth from amidst the babble.

[jatelle]

When PA speaks believe it!

The challenge is determining truth from amidst the babble.

Indeed. One of my favorite PA indicators that cuts through the noise is one that you introduced to me: the Parabolic SAR (PSAR) Bullish Percent Index with Slope. This I can trust.

[12squared]

When PA speaks believe it!

The challenge is determining truth from amidst the babble.

Indeed. One of my favorite PA indicators that cuts through the noise is one that you introduced to me: the Parabolic SAR (PSAR) Bullish Percent Index with Slope. This I can trust.

Jatelle,
What parameter values do you find most useful?
Do you use the same values for every ticker?

12²

[jatelle]

12², For the indices I use the identical SAR overlays that are used on your PSAR study. The only change I make is to the slope parameter. I prefer to use the 7 linear regression over the 9 as it is more responsive and less lagging. For instance, the 7 started to slope up on the Dec 12 hinting at this big move yesterday whereas the 9 was still continuing its slope down.

[VAmanBulls]

Jatelle I'm a believer. I missed big moves going into the G early December. Not happy. Now I have to figure out if I should join the party for some end of year gains. But when are the market profit takers going to cut and run with this massive bull run since November. I'm betting there is some more juice for next week but I hate this position. I think from a valuation view, things are too hot, but from a momentum view this thing might run into late December.

[jatelle]

Jatelle I'm a believer. I missed big moves going into the G early December. Not happy. Now I have to figure out if I should join the party for some end of year gains. But when are the market profit takers going to cut and run with this massive bull run since November. I'm betting there is some more juice for next week but I hate this position. I think from a valuation view, things are too hot, but from a momentum view this thing might run into late December.

I have been in your shoes a thousand times so I know how it feels. Terrible FOMO. The Institutions (Big Money) has been gradually gearing up for this since Nov 1. Now that we have broken out of consolidation all the regular investors are jumping in and chasing it, which PUMPs up price. The risk here is that this sets up an attractive liquidity grab for the Big Money who could suddenly dump it (take profits) to grab your money. But alternatively it could keep going right into the Santa Rally. At this point my advice is to trust the Seasonals which historically say that mid-December is a good time to be in the market. I wish you all the luck!

[12squared]

I have been in your shoes a thousand times so I know how it feels. Terrible FOMO. The Institutions (Big Money) has been gradually gearing up for this since Nov 1. Now that we have broken out of consolidation all the regular investors are jumping in and chasing it, which PUMPs up price. The risk here is that this sets up an attractive liquidity grab for the Big Money who could suddenly dump it (take profits) to grab your money. But alternatively it could keep going right into the Santa Rally. At this point my advice is to trust the Seasonals which historically say that mid-December is a good time to be in the market. I wish you all the luck!

I would tend to agree, but I am concerned about the current levels of the Bullish Percentages and how quickly they have risen this week. $BPNYA (based on NYSE) usually reverses after exceeding 60%.

$BPNYA & $DWCPF 2019-23 60,70.png

+$BPNYA & $DWCPF 2022-23 60,70.png

The increase from Tuesday to Thursday appears similar to February of this year.


Also, $DWCPF pushed past 2.5 StdDev Thursday on a 20 day basis. This is uncommon, but more likely following a breakout from sideways movement. It rarely occurs after weeks of upward price action. Such large departures from the mean can precede periods of consolidation.

$DWCPF 2023 BB(20,2.5).png

[jimmyk]

Jatelle, 12squared, VaManBulls and others. Thanks for contributing your insights to this thread. I went back and reread some of the post and found them really helpful. I very much appreciate your teaching hearts.

[12squared]

Checking MarketWatch, I note that Asian markets were down overnight and Europe is down this morning. Although US futures are up, the Crypto market is down. I've observed that the latter is more indicative of the day than futures, except perhaps when the Fed speaks.

[VAmanBulls]

Come on 12squared, we need positive vibrations this week, ha. Santa is coming to town. We have all been nice. Let's Go S fund!!!!!! Show me the money! Ride that bull.