Just Like clockwork...

[bloobs]

https://www.bankrate.com/investing/how- ... investing/

[mrwawa]

Hey all. I'm really enjoying this thread, but would like to feel more comfortable about what you all are discussing if I could read some books, etc. Any advice about books I could read to get up to speed? I feel like I'm watching a movie that I jumped into halfway! Happy Holidays!

[jatelle]

Hey all. I'm really enjoying this thread, but would like to feel more comfortable about what you all are discussing if I could read some books, etc. Any advice about books I could read to get up to speed? I feel like I'm watching a movie that I jumped into halfway! Happy Holidays!

Glad to hear Mrwawa! By the looks of your TSP returns you appear to already understand the market well and are buying and selling at the right times. Well done and keep it up!

I am big proponent of Price Action and in particular Volume Price Analysis. I would highly recommend this book to get up to speed: A Complete Guide To Volume Price Analysis: Read the book then read the market by Anna Coulling

Happy reading over the Holidays!

[jatelle]

Low volume melt up day for SPY (C-Fund) that took out the Bearish Darkpool Print from the end of November @474.70. SPY's next target is the ATH from Jan 4, 2022 @ 479.98. The Nasdaq (QQQ) made new ATHs, and IWM (S-Fund) closed over the big 200 psych level and is poised to pass the high of Aug 16, 2022 @202 and then will target the high of March 29, 2022 @212.83.

Keep in mind that the indices are currently overbought on the Daily RSI (around 78) so a healthy pullback to consolidate is inevitable at some point here.

[jatelle]

Jatelle, 12squared, VaManBulls and others. Thanks for contributing your insights to this thread. I went back and reread some of the post and found them really helpful. I very much appreciate your teaching hearts.

Hi Jimmy, thank you for the feedback and we're happy to hear that you and others are enjoying this thread. And I want to pass on a special shout out to this site's Admin mjedlin66 and moderator Aitrus for hosting this site. Thanks to them this is all possible!

[Aitrus]

It's our pleasure, jatelle.

[mrwawa]

Glad to hear Mrwawa! By the looks of your TSP returns you appear to already understand the market well and are buying and selling at the right times. Well done and keep it up!

I am big proponent of Price Action and in particular Volume Price Analysis. I would highly recommend this book to get up to speed: A Complete Guide To Volume Price Analysis: Read the book then read the market by Anna Coulling

Happy reading over the Holidays!

Thanks so much for the book recommendation. Like many others, I missed the market moves at the beginning of December, but don't want to try to chase the market blindly. I want to chase it with knowledge and know why I am losing money!

[jatelle]

Sharp sell off this afternoon on the indices on moderate volume. Volume was higher than the last two days but lower than Dec 13-15 breakouts. The pullback brought the Daily RSI back down out of overbought territory to 66 and 64 for IWM and SPY respectively. Price on SPY pushed down to the $10B Bullish Signature Darkpool Print just after close but respected its 9 EMA, while IWM closed well above its 9 EMA suggesting that this rally is still in tact for now. Today may have been just a simple shake out/liquidity grab before a new leg up, or could be hinting at further pullbacks to come. Tomorrow will tell us more.

[12squared]

The S&P appears to have peaked, based on Intermediate Term Momentum Breadth. Yesterday it ended below the MA(5) and PSAR, and its 5 day slope went negative.

+SPX breadth momentum 21Sep23-20Dec23.png

Except for the first full week of December, the slope had been positive and MA(5) and PSAR(0.09,0.5) had been tracking below price since the 1st of November. The difference now is that price, slope, MA & PSAR are in alignment. Two weeks ago price reversed to the upside after the conclusion of the Fed meeting, mocking these indicators.

[jatelle]

The Bulls strike back! Aggressive sellers tried desperately all morning to flush SPY below its Daily 9 EMA (blue line). Then buyers stepped in with volume in the afternoon and bought it right back up at the 9 EMA to the penny at $469 printing a bullish Hammer candle (green candle with long lower wick). The last time SPY tested its 9 EMA was on Dec 5/6 after which it rallied from there. As long as SPY and IWM continue to respect the Daily 9 EMA and 20 EMA (pink line) the uptrend is in tact. The VIX confirmed the strength staying below 14.34 and closing lower today at 13.65. The Daily RSI remained outside overbought territory (above 70) and closed at 68 and 70 for SPY and IWM, respectively. SPY and IWM both closed as an Inside Day and are now positioned to retest yesterdays highs.

"Bear" in mind we have entered correction territory with Price Action hinting that a top is near. For S&P the Linear Regressions (Slopes 7 and 9) are sloping down towards the zero midline (but not yet crossed) and the Bullish Percent Index line is flat, and the Daily RSI keeps flirting in overbought territory. So keep riding Santa's sleigh (HO HO HO!) but don't fall in love with the upside.

[jatelle]

Small green consolidation day for SPY with strong closing move in the last 15 minutes to finish at session highs. SPY is still pushing afterhours and is heading to reclaim the high of Jan 5, 2022. A breakout day tomorrow wouldn’t be at all surprising but we would need volume to return to the broader market. VIX confirms the strength and closed at 12.39.

[jatelle]

SPY had a bit more volume today than the three previous sessions but just has no range ($1.29 total). It closed to print a spinning top daily candlestick signifying indecision. These range bound conditions could very well continue through Jan 2nd as we await the post-holiday volume to come back in. The Window of Strength returns then and runs through Jan 17th so looking forward to breaking out of this range during that period. Tomorrow is OPEX with a heavy call to put skew for dealers. This could lead to some controlled selling and pullback as dealers de-hedge by selling underlying shares. If buyers counter, it could lead to whipsaw chop.

[bamafamily]

In the theme of Bullish Percent Indexes.....I saw this posted on another site....Is that 80 level something to be wary of?

[12squared]

In the theme of Bullish Percent Indexes.....I saw this posted on another site....Is that 80 level something to be wary of?

Very much so. It rarely gets much higher.

BPSPX & SPX 2019-2023.png

The upper red line is 80.

[jatelle]

Tom Crowley of TSP Talk said it well yesterday in his blog, "Making new highs usually means higher prices going forward, although short-term pullbacks often occur first. However, it is very rare to see a new high made on the last day of the year."
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptal ... rnate.html

Today as expected SPY did not make a new high but instead pulled and bounced off its Daily 9 EMA. If it cannot make new highs then it will pull further and likely retry off its Daily 20 EMA (469/470). If again it is unable to make new highs then we could expect a short-term pullback in early January.