Just Like clockwork...

[NUC SHARK]

Jatelle, 12square, and team - thank you for your posts. i am really a lehman on this stuff but i "pull the string" on information you all post in an effort to help understand just a bit. And little by little i am becoming at least a TSPer with some form a strategy LOL. Here is what i would share with the crowd:

"The 9-EMA strategy is a technical analysis strategy that uses the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) to generate buy and sell signals for trading securities. It uses 9-EMA to identify short-term market swings in the price of a security." - quantifiedstrategies.com

"A 20-day moving average can help determine short-term uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends. Examining a security's moving average in relation to its current price can help investors identify potential buy signals." - schwab.com

"The 200-day moving average is considered especially significant in stock trading. As long as the 50-day moving average of a stock price remains above the 200-day moving average, the stock is generally thought to be in a bullish trend." - investopedia.com

"Which moving average is best? That depends on whether you have a short-term horizon or a long-term horizon. For short-term trades the 5, 10, and 20 period moving averages are best, while longer-term trading makes best use of the 50, 100, and 200 period moving averages." - avatrade.com

helps put this forum discussion into perspective... thanks all..

[jatelle]

Good post Nuc Shark! May I just add these moving averages move hence their name and can cross one another. For example, the "golden cross" and the "death cross" offer important buy/sell signals for investors.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... attern.asp

[12squared]

Tom Crowley of TSP Talk said it well yesterday in his blog, "Making new highs usually means higher prices going forward, although short-term pullbacks often occur first. However, it is very rare to see a new high made on the last day of the year."
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptal ... rnate.html

Buy high, sell higher, isn’t an investment strategy, it’s a triumph of hope over experience.

from commentary on How pricey is the stock market now? by Mark Hulbert, sub-titled "U.S. stocks today are more expensive than at almost any other time".

[jatelle]

from commentary on How pricey is the stock market now? by Mark Hulbert, sub-titled "U.S. stocks today are more expensive than at almost any other time".

Thanks 12squared. So true. I'm mystified how pricey this market is and yet it persists in making new highs. Sellers were in total control on Friday the last day of the trading year until buyers stepped in and took over in the afternoon. SPY held 475 closing down just 0.25% after hammering with volume off the Daily 9EMA and the Weekly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) for December. That makes it 9 straight weeks for this uptrend - extraordinary! The technical signals are all on the cusp of a reversal but have yet to flip. SPY closed above the 20 day VPOC @ 475.18 which is key because this is the price where Big Money has the majority of its positions over the past 20 trading days (like a 20 day moving average for volume) - meaning they have not fled the scene and are defending their positions. Both the S&P Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) PSARs are holding and the Linear Regression slopes (7 and 9) have not crossed the zero median. The Weekly RSI is still below the oversold mark (70) and is respecting its trendline. But I am very mindful that all of this could change in a heartbeat. Is there still more gas in the tank?! Let's see what volume brings in the New Year!

Wishing you and everyone a Happy New Year's and a prosperous 2024!

[12squared]

In the theme of Bullish Percent Indexes.....I saw this posted on another site....Is that 80 level something to be wary of?

Here's the range over the past 3 decades.

BPSPX 1996-2023.png

All of the best seats sold long ago. One should not expect to see a great performance from the nosebleed section.

[Bubba]

In the theme of Bullish Percent Indexes.....I saw this posted on another site....Is that 80 level something to be wary of?

Here's the range over the past 3 decades.

BPSPX 1996-2023.png

All of the best seats sold long ago. One should not expect to see a great performance from the nosebleed section.

I think it also depends on where you're looking. Small and mids are historically pretty cheap whereas large is too expensive. Either way, I'm expecting a haircut of 5 to 10% in Q1. According to my strat I should go 100% F on the first trading day of January. I'll probably stay in G for that period, but we'll see where this market heads. My gut tells me we need a haircut sooner than later, but a lot of guys that I watch say that January and February should be excellent whereas March should be bad.

Good luck to all!

[12squared]

Bullish % Indexes dropped quickly late in session after being down less than half a percent earlier in the day.

BPSPX & SPX 3Oct23-2Jan24.png

BPNYA & DWCPF 3Oct23-2Jan24.png

[jatelle]

Today S&P gapped below its Daily 9EMA. A lot of money seemed to flow out of cyclical stocks today and into defensive/staples sector. It’s just one day, but worth watching the rest of the week for continuation and or possible beginning of a larger rotation. There was $6B in new Bearish Signature DP Prints today at 475.10 which I believe is a record. So it will be a challenge to push through this on the first try so more consolidation can be expected before the next leg up. Couple this with the flipping of the PSARs on the Bullish % Indexes means risk off for me for now. The Daily 20EMA will be the next support level where there are a ton of bullish DP prints.

[12squared]

NYSE IT Breadth Momentum down for 2nd day, crossing below MA(7) and flipping PSAR(0.1,0.3).

+NYSE breadth momentum 3Oct23-2Jan24.png

Note that the same indicators signaled the start of the of uptrend on 1 Nov 23. Neither MA(7) or PSAR(0.1,0.3) guardrails have been breached in the two months since then.

[jatelle]

Not a good day for the indexes. SPY bounced in the morning but rejected off the 5SMA (orange line). Both SPY and IWM closed below their 20EMAs (pink line) for a second straight day. Moreover, the 5SMA has bear crossed below the 9EMA (blue line) on both indexes. This cross has typically led to more downside as it occurred in IWM on Aug 7/23 and Sept 11/23, and in SPY on Aug 4/23 and Sept 18/23. The charts aren't looking very festive for our Santa rally.... Perhaps we could see a relief bounce next week before the next bear cross of the 9EMA below the 20EMA.

[jatelle]

Biggest single day move on S&P since November and reclaiming the Daily 9EMA. However, IWM was unable to reclaim its Daily 9EMA. So ATHs by January OPEX appears possible again. But a note of caution: Today's bounce was on relatively LOW volume compared to the recent pullback days and most importantly LOWER volume than the largest pullback on Dec 20 (far left candle). Price will need to retest and hold above the 9EMA otherwise this is a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern.

[12squared]

Today's bounce was on relatively LOW volume compared to the recent pullback days and most importantly LOWER volume than the largest pullback on Dec 20

That might explain why large, mid and small-cap breadth momentum declined while their respective indexes soared.

+SPX breadth momentum 9Oct23-8Jan24.png

+Mid-cap breadth momentum 9Oct23-8Jan24.png

+Small-cap breadth momentum 9Oct23-8Jan24.png

[jatelle]

Today's bounce was on relatively LOW volume compared to the recent pullback days and most importantly LOWER volume than the largest pullback on Dec 20

That might explain why large, mid and small-cap breadth momentum declined while their respective indexes soared.

Yes, this sure does make sense. Today, was simply a vicious short-covering rally, effectively taking out four daily highs in the process. Short squeezes trigger sellers stops (forcing them to buy back pushing up price) and is not a measure of the breadth of buying by Big Money. Tomorrow we'll see if there is a strong show of aggressive buyers eager to push price higher.

[jatelle]

SPY (C-Fund) has reclaimed all its daily moving averages and its Weekly trendline and is climbing afterhours to reclaim the high of Jan 4, 2022 @479.98. Only thing standing in the way of SPY and ATHs now is CPI tomorrow (Thurs).

IWM (S-Fund) has reclaimed its 20EMA printing a hammer candle on the day and is climbing afterhours to reclaim its 9EMA. Key levels for IWM is the Anchored VWAP @197 from the Dec 28, 2023 high, and a Bear Gap that fills @198.44. If it can break and hold above these then there is nothing but blue sky to Dec 28th high @205.61.

[jatelle]

A Hot CPI print sent the Indexes spiraling down this morning. IWM rejected off the AVWAP (197) during Pre-market (PM) and then fell back below its daily 9EMA and 20EMA. Despite an afternoon bounce, IWM was never able to reclaim its daily moving averages and closed negative on the day.

SPY fell to test its daily 9EMA where buyers bought it back up which printed a hammer candlestick on a small volume uptick. SPY closed flat today closing just below yesterday's close. Tomorrow's PPI and Bank Earnings in PM could very well set the tone to end the week and decide if we’re double topping out or will make new ATHs.