TSP Center

Taking a look at some other Bullish Percent and Breadth indicators.

bamafamily wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 10:16 am Taking a look at some other Bullish Percent and Breadth indicators.

Bama,
Nice set of charts.

When I add Bollinger Bands to define Quartiles over the long term, e.g. BB(250,0.675), I note that the NYSE Bullish percentage is still in the upper quartile.
Looking back over the past 5 years, that index of market breadth has not rebounded much after falling that much from a recent high - until it falls into the lower quartile.

Nice analysis 12
Concur on BB. yet another indicator saying we should be in for at least a slight pull back.

Stock charts let me put together a bunch of charts at a time but only has a limited set of indicators when I do multiples. The EMA (41) is very close to a standard indicator I use, which is the WMA (13). I wish I could’ve added the SAR but that is only available on the first chart when you do multiples

I’m waiting for a shoe to drop but we keep melting upwards. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

bamafamily wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 1:46 pm Concur on BB. yet another indicator saying we should be in for at least a slight pull back.

It would be unusual for BPNYA to pop back up from the 60 level. It happened in spring of '20, but that was right after the pandemic crash, not after an ATH.

bamafamily wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 1:46 pm I’m waiting for a shoe to drop but we keep melting upwards. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Strategy #197822 that Amerks created stays in G until the end of January, but goes to S 3 days before the EOM. That may be a good target, although his charts suggest that 2 days before EOM is better.

12²

NAAIM Index came in more bullish this week jumping up 30 points.

simplifying things up a bit...
Doing some backtesting, I found the standard SAR (.02,.2) plotted on the NYSE IT Breadth Oscillator did reasonably well on both C & S funds....Of course the S Fund had a higher Standard deviation due to the small and mid cap contents.....
Looks like we may be coming up on a positive turn?

and flipped....S Fund blew it up today!

And then Jerome opened his mouth

tsp.gov site down? anyone else having issues??

I was last night. Looks like everything is working now

Getting close to another flip down?

When are the dang chart gaps going to get closed? I'm more than ready for that to happen

Here is the seasonality of February and March for the major indices. Here, the Covid low overlays the patterns. But with the overheated market, a correction is healthy.



And the 20-year seasonality of the SPY without Covid data.

I am curious how the market is going to be here for March....My chosen plan (152300) has me dipping back into the I fund mid month for most of the last 2 weeks of the month then into the S fund to close out the month...with a fairly good track record of success....but with TSP supposed to be changing the fund that the I fund is to be following with no time horizon...it make me wonder if March may be when they pull the rug out from under us on the I fund...hmmmm


Cheers!

Is it time to hedge for a market decline? S&P keeps setting new record highs. February PCE report to be released March 29. Fuel prices remain high which could mean PCE will remain elevated. Markets closed on March 29, so any PCE reaction will be Monday. Thoughts on when a pullback might be due?