Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

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bloobs
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Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by bloobs »

Where to start…information asymmetry (information doesn’t reach everyone straight away) Behavioural bias (information is interpreted differently), liquidity constraints (I want to but can’t trade), institutional practice (a pension fund could take weeks to trade on info) etc etc
- @palmberg_johan

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jimcasada
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Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by jimcasada »

Tonight, I went through my watch list and narrowed it down to the 5 main folks I most want to follow: johnking15, tspwizzard, avtomat, surelyjame, & mrwawa. I believe these are the folks that have consistently done most well over the past 5 years here on our fantasy list (I didn't go any further back and I'm putting extra weight on the last few years). I would put you bloobs on the most improved list.

BelieveGod
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Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by BelieveGod »

Why did johnking15 privatize his account? Why does it matter? It helps me personally to be able to see other accounts and do the "what if I had". I appreciate and read most of the forums. This website is so much better than the FB versions since it gives the fantasy side. This fantasy side has helped me so much having the courage to trade. I got caught with a significant down and am riding it out.

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bloobs
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Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by bloobs »

jimcasada wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 1:07 am ... I would put you bloobs on the most improved list.
The wife begs to differ :?

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jimcasada
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Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by jimcasada »

BelieveGod wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:17 am Why did johnking15 privatize his account? Why does it matter? It helps me personally to be able to see other accounts and do the "what if I had". I appreciate and read most of the forums. This website is so much better than the FB versions since it gives the fantasy side. This fantasy side has helped me so much having the courage to trade. I got caught with a significant down and am riding it out.
I can't see johnking15's stuff today neither, so I'm taking him off my list. Also, I see where I screwed up on tracking tspwizzard (got him mixed up with tspostal), so I'm taking him off my short list too.

Bubba
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Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by Bubba »

jimcasada wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:47 pm
BelieveGod wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:17 am Why did johnking15 privatize his account? Why does it matter? It helps me personally to be able to see other accounts and do the "what if I had". I appreciate and read most of the forums. This website is so much better than the FB versions since it gives the fantasy side. This fantasy side has helped me so much having the courage to trade. I got caught with a significant down and am riding it out.
I can't see johnking15's stuff today neither, so I'm taking him off my list. Also, I see where I screwed up on tracking tspwizzard (got him mixed up with tspostal), so I'm taking him off my short list too.
Cool! Good idea in following people you trust. I've spent the past 2 years coming up with a new theory. So far it hasn't gained as much traction (in my view) as I had hoped. It also hasn't performed as hoped. As a result, I've been focusing on TSPCalc strats with less than 5 SD. I think if you can get around a 24 to 25% CAGR per year, you're doing REALLY well. I'm still blown away, at times, by this program Matt created. My point here is that finding the right system for you AND reviewing it's historical significance might mean more than people. Either way, it's always good to have more data.

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bloobs
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Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by bloobs »

Bubba wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:54 am ... I'm still blown away, at times, by this program Matt created. My point here is that finding the right system for you AND reviewing it's historical significance might mean more than people. Either way, it's always good to have more data.
Matt's TSPCALC has been revolutionary for me. Because it brought to fruition a concept that had been whirling in my mind for years about how to slice and dice market data to achieve the most efficient ROI. Unlike him, I could not fathom how to structure the stock market index data model much less how to process that data into the actionable format that he's done with the site. I am not much of an expert db designer nor python developer it seems.

The only thing that would be great is if there was a way to autogenerate the seasonal strategies; right now this is manually done by us in a sort-of trial and error "crowdsourced" fashion, which is brilliant in a way by itself.

But with AI, this autogenerate feature may literally be only a button click away.

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12squared
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Re: Why there will always be winners, losers, and every shade in between in the market?

Post by 12squared »

bloobs wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:34 am Matt's TSPCALC has been revolutionary for me. Because it brought to fruition a concept that had been whirling in my mind for years about how to slice and dice market data to achieve the most efficient ROI. Unlike him, I could not fathom how to structure the stock market index data model much less how to process that data into the actionable format that he's done with the site. I am not much of an expert db designer nor python developer it seems.

The only thing that would be great is if there was a way to autogenerate the seasonal strategies; right now this is manually done by us in a sort-of trial and error "crowdsourced" fashion, which is brilliant in a way by itself.
What I'd really like TSPcalc to be able to do is identify combinations of IFTs that been most successful from a given day onward, based on where I am currently allocated. The Seasonal Builder can do this, but only when starting from the last day of a month, i.e. on a calendar month by month basis. As I understand it, TSPcalc has pre-computed millions of monthly combinations.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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