Recovered?

[Bubba]

That low of an SD would mean that 2022 should have been just fine.

Not really. SD (standard deviation) simply measures the "spread" of data point values over a date range that has already happened. A calculated SD does not forecast any future period's SD--even though it can be inferred. I (re)learned that lesson the hard way in 2022 when i picked #148233 as my base strategy for my TSP specifically for its low SD.

The worse part was that I assumed......, no I BELIEVED, that this strategy with 17 years worth of immutable data showing an SD of 3.4 percentage points wouldn't stray far beyond its annual 26.7 +/- 3.4% performance range (26% is its CAGR and 3.4% is its SD.)

Guess what? It promptly hammered home a grisly double-digit loss in 2022. I also ignored the fact that it had returned a "measly" 15% in 2021.

My overall takeaway is that while diligently using a scientific risk management approach by using seasonal investing's quantifiable measures is a lot better than going with your gut (or worse, believing the loudest talking head on TV)--it is not foolproof and certainly not guaranteed.

I remind myself what seasonal investing just is: it is the analysis of historical market data to detect REPEATIBLE (and henceforth probably "predictable") price action patterns. It ignores price action-based trends, technical analysis, and economic/corporate events analysis, and also thankfully, Jim Cramer.

Note that what I meant with you would have been just fine...would be an easy feeling (one that I felt in the past too) and is what you described. I wasn't saying you would be fine for sure. As they say in the market, nothing is for sure.

What's getting my attention is that many that I'm following are saying we should go lower through March and have a bad July. The more I read, the more it feels like the market likes to embarrass people. It seems like what people expect is not the most likely move. I guess we'll see. For now, I'm comparing this year to 2004 and 2016. I'm leaning a situation more comparable to 2016...but it could also be 2004 (or some other time!). It's never perfect.

[bloobs]

Note that what I meant with you would have been just fine...would be an easy feeling (one that I felt in the past too) and is what you described. I wasn't saying you would be fine for sure. As they say in the market, nothing is for sure....

Acknowledged

What's getting my attention is that many that I'm following are saying we should go lower through March and have a bad July. The more I read, the more it feels like the market likes to embarrass people. It seems like what people expect is not the most likely move....

Yes, the purpose of mass media is almost always to steer people into a specific mindset and decisions--in order to serve their self-interests. Most people forget that.

[Bubba]

Note that what I meant with you would have been just fine...would be an easy feeling (one that I felt in the past too) and is what you described. I wasn't saying you would be fine for sure. As they say in the market, nothing is for sure....

Acknowledged

What's getting my attention is that many that I'm following are saying we should go lower through March and have a bad July. The more I read, the more it feels like the market likes to embarrass people. It seems like what people expect is not the most likely move....

Yes, the purpose of mass media is almost always to steer people into a specific mindset and decisions--in order to serve their self-interests. Most people forget that.

Excellent point! I've seen enough traders on FinTwit comment about a stock, only to see it go down a few hours later. It spiked after they mentioned it though...which makes you wonder who's making money here...