That's the thing about the market; 99.9999% of us wont get a trend change confirmation signal until a few days after the market starts drops sustainably dropping. Most people consider a 2/3 day close beneath the 20day MA as the confirmation that the S&P500's current bull run is done. Far from perfect, but sometimes better than "predicting" because I know a bunch of guys who predicted and decided to get out back in January. They've lost lot more gains since than the guy who only decides to sell off a few days after the index actually crosses beneath the 20day MA.Snapdragon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 1:35 pmCan you let us all know 2 days before the correction starts?
Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
I got out because March usually always sucks. I would have to identify a real nice buying opportunity to go back in, otherwise I will be staying clear until April.
Looks like S is getting pounded.
Looks like S is getting pounded.
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
I saw a seasonal trending chart the other day that shows in election years, the first half of March typically is down and the second half of March typically up. This did not appear to trend with the regular March data.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
Wish I would have done that! I feel I’m behind the 8 ball. That’s when I usually mess up!
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
I saw this too. Interestingly, some of the market commentators that I follow have been forecasting a great first half and a terrible 2nd half. That doesn't line up with the typical election years, but sure enough, we've had a decent first 2 weeks.
Having said all of that, I'm at a high percentage in the I Fund. Fingers crossed...
- Scarfinger
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- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
Playing it a little on the conservative side. I am going 50% L2035 and 50% I
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Re: Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...
For FY24 I’ve decided to follow the strategy of “set it and forget it” which is only half true; as I’ve set it- but behind the scenes I’m checking it constantly. My rational- looking that the overall history of the C Fund, which was in the top five for seasonal strategies for the life of the fund compared to others. Figured I’d try it out, like I said, I’m not as entune to the market like others and so far its been working great . . .
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Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)
Fund Prices2024-05-10
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.24 | 0.01% | 1.54% |
F | $18.86 | -0.22% | -1.88% |
C | $81.82 | 0.18% | 10.02% |
S | $80.25 | -0.32% | 4.10% |
I | $42.79 | 0.31% | 6.48% |
L2065 | $16.31 | 0.16% | 7.91% |
L2060 | $16.32 | 0.16% | 7.91% |
L2055 | $16.32 | 0.16% | 7.92% |
L2050 | $32.61 | 0.12% | 6.56% |
L2045 | $14.86 | 0.11% | 6.24% |
L2040 | $54.24 | 0.10% | 5.94% |
L2035 | $14.31 | 0.09% | 5.58% |
L2030 | $47.61 | 0.09% | 5.24% |
L2025 | $13.16 | 0.05% | 3.55% |
Linc | $25.66 | 0.04% | 3.01% |