Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow...

[bloobs]

Question for those scheduled to sell S/C tomorrow, anybody contemplating doing it today (given tomorrow is Friday OPEX volatility day)

Statistically, the mean/stddev deltas are marginal so hmm....

[Chulke]

That's a good call bloobs...based on this morning's action so far it may be well worth selling out today to lock in those gains before the bi-polar crazies tank the market back down 2-3%...

[CHN]

Yes, I'll be moving to G today......already spooked by that ~3% loss in S earlier this week. Maybe can lock in some gains unless today is another "rug pull" event. C'est la vie...............

[mrwawa]

I was thinking the same thing, but usually when I go with my gut, it doesn't play out. I have done a lot better when I stick with a plan.

[bloobs]

I decided to stay the course.

As usual I quantified it accordingly:

I looked at several data points and assessed the odds either way made it a wash. One factor was that while S&P500 on opex fridays were only up 40% of the time, that doesn't necessarily apply to mid/small cap indices (e.g. S fund). To that point, per my TASPCALC start, selling S on the 12th trading day in Feb. almost always falls on opex and that has quantifiably resulted in a Feb. gain 80% of the time in that past 20 years.

Having said that, stats look back and do not predict the future, as always.

PS - I did not get an email confirmation when I entered my IFT request yesterday afternoon. Anybody else had the same experience? I called them and they said the request is in the system. IT BETTER BE! I cannot believe our financial futures are in the hands of that awful new system they put in place 2 years ago.

[12squared]

One factor was that while S&P500 on opex fridays were only up 40% of the time, that doesn't necessarily apply to mid/small cap indices (e.g. S fund). To that point, per my TASPCALC start, selling S on the 12th trading day in Feb. almost always falls on opex and that has quantifiably resulted in a Feb. gain 80% of the time in that past 20 years.

I suspect that the mid-month Federal holiday is also a factor. February stats (2004-23) indicate a drop is typical in all equites after the 12th trading day. However, I tends to decline less, and then rebound through the 16th TD.

[frankwhite]

My reason to sell on Friday was simple- I’m on vacation and didn’t want to worry about it… that and I think we’re in for a downturn since profits seem to be down, inflation is up, and I don’t see how the Fed can cut rates earlier than late summer if at all in 24. FOMO pushed us higher (GameStop like) but I think we’re coming down. Time will tell.

FWIW- in my decade and a half on this site- I’ve made moves based on market sentiment and outward thinking - I don’t use charts… follow at your own discretion please.


Congrats to all that have banked big returns over the past couple years!

Frank White- out

[NUC SHARK]

Several TSP Calc strategies along with some strategies that are shared on Forum chats - are going into I fund on March 10th Trading Day. I don't believe the TSP has switched to the new I fund, just throwing this out there to gauge Forum thoughts on moving to I fund tomorrow.

[Chulke]

Several TSP Calc strategies along with some strategies that are shared on Forum chats - are going into I fund on March 10th Trading Day. I don't believe the TSP has switched to the new I fund, just throwing this out there to gauge Forum thoughts on moving to I fund tomorrow.

I'm a bit hesitant to buy into I fund tomorrow as it's sitting close/near to it's all time high...it's gonna depend on today's close I think and maybe tomorrow's early morning action...If it's negative I may buy in...If it's positive I may wait and watch it....I hate to buy in near the ATH's only to watch it sink over the next week or so while I'm in it...Just my 2 cents!

That's about all I'm worth LOL!


Cheers!

[Bubba]

Several TSP Calc strategies along with some strategies that are shared on Forum chats - are going into I fund on March 10th Trading Day. I don't believe the TSP has switched to the new I fund, just throwing this out there to gauge Forum thoughts on moving to I fund tomorrow.

I'm a bit hesitant to buy into I fund tomorrow as it's sitting close/near to it's all time high...it's gonna depend on today's close I think and maybe tomorrow's early morning action...If it's negative I may buy in...If it's positive I may wait and watch it....I hate to buy in near the ATH's only to watch it sink over the next week or so while I'm in it...Just my 2 cents!

That's about all I'm worth LOL!


Cheers!

These are good points. What I do is put a smaller percentage into a fund if I don't feel good about it. So, instead of going 100% I (in this case), I would do something like 70% or 50% (depending on how I feel). Sure, I give up some gain if I chose badly, but I also don't lose too much if otherwise.

I'm also in the I camp and not sure what I'll do. I'll figure it out though, just like you guys.

[bloobs]

I'm a bit hesitant to buy into I fund tomorrow as it's sitting close/near to it's all time high...

Fair point. Some facts of this Oct to present bull rally:
- C fund has become 8% more overvalued than I fund, which has become 12% more overvalued than S fund
- but the C rally has been mostly about its Mag7 stocks, that has been mostly about NVDA--and not about other 493 stocks in that index, nor the 5000 stocks in the S (Willshire) nor the 792 stocks in the I fund (EFA).
- So aside from the aforementioned 7 stocks, there may still be room to run at least for the next few weeks--until a correction sets in.

[bloobs]

Several TSP Calc strategies along with some strategies that are shared on Forum chats - are going into I fund on March 10th Trading Day. I don't believe the TSP has switched to the new I fund, just throwing this out there to gauge Forum thoughts on moving to I fund tomorrow.

I'm a bit hesitant to buy into I fund tomorrow as it's sitting close/near to it's all time high...it's gonna depend on today's close I think and maybe tomorrow's early morning action...If it's negative I may buy in...If it's positive I may wait and watch it....I hate to buy in near the ATH's only to watch it sink over the next week or so while I'm in it...Just my 2 cents!

That's about all I'm worth LOL!


Cheers!

What I do is put a smaller percentage into a fund if I don't feel good about it. So, instead of going 100% I (in this case), I would do something like 70% or 50% (depending on how I feel). Sure, I give up some gain if I chose badly, but I also don't lose too much if otherwise.

Another way would be to commit all 100% into I then be ready to scale back to G if/when a confirmation of a switch to the downside happens.

[Bubba]

Oh, if some are wondering why the I right now...I believe it's because EFA typically pays a decent dividend in this period, not to mention Japan and a few European economies have their greatest moments this month. Add to that that Blackrock and S.S. are heavily involved in securities lending and you can see why the I fund is a great choice now. Good luck all!

[Snapdragon]

- So aside from the aforementioned 7 stocks, there may still be room to run at least for the next few weeks--until a correction sets in.

Can you let us all know 2 days before the correction starts?

[IRQVET]

I've done the jump in/ jump out dance before and always seem to miss the mark. Probably cause I'm not entuned to the market like you folks are. All I know is I went 100% C back in Nov. and until this week it was going great . . .