SPY market analog between 2012 and 2024?

[bloobs]

Both years are:

- Election years
- Approx. 4 years past a big crash (2008 Great Recession and 2020 Covid)
- SPY performance Y-T-D are near-perfect correlation (bull run)
- Fed funds rate expected (or about) to be lowered.

Thoughts please?

[jimcasada]

My TSP records show that I ended 2012 up 13.2%. Other than that, I don't remember much about how that year progressed?

[ETOZZY]

Here Is My Gathering on This Year Per Legendary Williams Just Another Piece Of The Puzzle Not To Be Taken As Advice Ok. I'm Sure Most Of You Have Seen This Anywho Here It Is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q_2aol ... nw&index=8

[Bubba]

Larry Williams is awesome. This is his projection for 2024 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBof_-9WIAA ... name=small.

Another guy I follow is saying we're going to be closely linked to 2004. Who knows at this point. We'll see.

[mrwawa]

Need some confidence intervals on that graph! Seriously, thanks for sharing

[bloobs]

Need some confidence intervals on that graph! Seriously, thanks for sharing

I'm not going that far

My analysis was basic. I initially overlaid yearly S&P500 price line charts from 2004 to 2023 on top of 2024s to-date and it "seemed" that years 2012 and 2024 were in lock step--at least through the first 45 trading days of the year (beginning of Jan through March 5th).

So I then calculated the r (corr. coeff.) value between those 2 years' 45-day periods and it came up with 0.94, which is considered a very strong positive correlation.

My inference is that (the mysterious rules of seasonality being considered) if the cyclical price action patterns of the first 45 trading days have been matching so far then this pattern could continue (more or less) for the rest of the year.

Accordingly, if true, this bull rally should continue through all of March and only start correcting in April through June--then bounce up again

My poor man (or non-genius dude's) projections, I know