Thoughts?

[PhilJohn]

I am not opposed to eliminating the federal government pensions. Pensions are expensive and historically under-funded and over-promised. Here would be my proposal:

1. Change the TSP matching from 5% to 10%.
2. Set the default TSP contribution for new hires to 10%.
3. Set the default investment for new hires to C fund. Right now it's the L fund closest to your expected retirement date, which isn't bad.
4. Continue existing employees under FERS as agreed.

I used this calculator: https://www.bankrate.com/retirement/401-k-calculator/

Someone making just $40,000 investing 10%, employer matched 10%, assuming 7% returns and a 3% annual raise would have 3 million dollars after 35 years.

If as a society we moved towards 10% contributions and 10% matching being normalized, we would have far less people broke in retirement. We may even be able to get out of Social Security all together at that point.

Id be ok with it but I would want unlimited IFT's and the trades would have to happen in real time. Otherwise forget it.

[Bubba]

the problem with politicians is, especially democrats, is give them opportunities to spend more and they will spend more. so removing caps on OASDI will not solve anything , they will just spend more

This is not a democrat problem. This is an all government problem.

This is the national debt (p/president):

https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/Nationa ... x1_992.jpg

This is the deficit (p/president):

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/wp- ... ident.jpeg

[Bubba]

As to your paragraph about social security, it is not a net receiver of cash any more. The CBO chart you just linked clearly shows that. And yes, the social security trust fund is invested into government bonds, and the federal government pays back those bonds with interest. There is no funny business going on just because the trust fund invests in government bonds.

You're right. I left out the portion that if you excluded the disability portion, that it would remain solvent. Sadly I cannot find that information anymore (perhaps my information has aged and isn't true any more)!

[Bubba]

I am not opposed to eliminating the federal government pensions. Pensions are expensive and historically under-funded and over-promised. Here would be my proposal:

1. Change the TSP matching from 5% to 10%.
2. Set the default TSP contribution for new hires to 10%.
3. Set the default investment for new hires to C fund. Right now it's the L fund closest to your expected retirement date, which isn't bad.
4. Continue existing employees under FERS as agreed.

I used this calculator: https://www.bankrate.com/retirement/401-k-calculator/

Someone making just $40,000 investing 10%, employer matched 10%, assuming 7% returns and a 3% annual raise would have 3 million dollars after 35 years.

If as a society we moved towards 10% contributions and 10% matching being normalized, we would have far less people broke in retirement. We may even be able to get out of Social Security all together at that point.

Id be ok with it but I would want unlimited IFT's and the trades would have to happen in real time. Otherwise forget it.

I think we're going to go past the 401k concept in the next couple of years. This'll probably be more like it https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/what-ib ... rkers.html. Remember that IBM was one of the first companies to leverage the 401k concept too!

[Bubba]

the democratic agenda and assault against the 2nd amendment is not about individual safety…they couldnt care less…its about securing a socialist agenda. Big Red Bus fellow Americans….

I'm not sure where you get your info. I don't see where they're trying to take the 2nd amendment away.

From the "horse's mouth" https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/th ... -violence/

From the average American: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads ... -and-guns/

Personally I don't own guns. I don't see the need. I think having sensible laws does make sense.

If you look here, banning assault weapons actually did make somewhat of a difference:

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/ima ... 12943.jpeg

Having said that, i don't think anyone's going to take your gun away (unless you have an anti-tank/anti-aircraft weapon)...but even in some states that might be legal.

I think we might be digressing, however, from the OP and original discussion.

[mjedlin66]

My personal accountability: when auto prices wouldn't come down in 2022 through 2023 i decided to defer buying a newer car to replace my 10yr old import. I can certainly "afford" a new car unlike most people who did end up buying a car and subsequently defaulted on it (see https://www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loa ... ies-surge/). but I also realized that need was really just a want and not worth paying 100s of bucks more a month for more reliability and luxury.

I am with you. I own a 1996 F-250 diesel to tow a 4,000 lb boat & trailer. I really would like a smaller, quieter, more comfortable truck. But even the 10 year old trucks that fit are 20k-40k right now. Forget it. I have been watching used auto prices fall slowly, hoping they would fall faster. It seems like at this rate it will take another 2-3 years to get back to normal prices.

[bloobs]

My personal accountability: when auto prices wouldn't come down in 2022 through 2023 i decided to defer buying a newer car to replace my 10yr old import. I can certainly "afford" a new car unlike most people who did end up buying a car and subsequently defaulted on it (see https://www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loa ... ies-surge/). but I also realized that need was really just a want and not worth paying 100s of bucks more a month for more reliability and luxury.

I am with you. I own a 1996 F-250 diesel to tow a 4,000 lb boat & trailer. I really would like a smaller, quieter, more comfortable truck. But even the 10 year old trucks that fit are 20k-40k right now. Forget it. I have been watching used auto prices fall slowly, hoping they would fall faster. It seems like at this rate it will take another 2-3 years to get back to normal prices.

MJ
Prices are gonna come down when consumers collectively wise up and stop buying bad value products/services. When is that gonna happen, well it's up to all of us, right? And since it seems few will admit their shared culpability, the answer is.....possibly never.

Here's what come to my mind each time I think of it: https://youtu.be/OrjPnYP_Wgk?t=276

[Bubba]

My personal accountability: when auto prices wouldn't come down in 2022 through 2023 i decided to defer buying a newer car to replace my 10yr old import. I can certainly "afford" a new car unlike most people who did end up buying a car and subsequently defaulted on it (see https://www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loa ... ies-surge/). but I also realized that need was really just a want and not worth paying 100s of bucks more a month for more reliability and luxury.

I am with you. I own a 1996 F-250 diesel to tow a 4,000 lb boat & trailer. I really would like a smaller, quieter, more comfortable truck. But even the 10 year old trucks that fit are 20k-40k right now. Forget it. I have been watching used auto prices fall slowly, hoping they would fall faster. It seems like at this rate it will take another 2-3 years to get back to normal prices.

MJ
Prices are gonna come down when consumers collectively wise up and stop buying bad value products/services. When is that gonna happen, well it's up to all of us, right? And since it seems few will admit their shared culpability, the answer is.....possibly never.

Here's what come to my mind each time I think of it: https://youtu.be/OrjPnYP_Wgk?t=276

I'm waiting for electric cars to get more interesting. They're showing that range is going to increase quite a bit pretty soon. Driving 800 or 900 kms on one charge will actually make one of these vehicles very interesting...to me.

[mjedlin66]

Used car prices are coming down. Just not as quickly as they shot up. I am watching the Mannheim Used Vehicle Index to know when it is time to start shopping. I tried to link it but copy/paste is disabled on this phone.

I also would be interested in an electric car. It almost made economic sense for me before interest rates skyrocketed. I only drive 4000-5000 miles per year because my commute to work is 15-20 minutes. My commute would be an excellent use case for an electric car. I figured that if I could finance an electric car for what I spend on fuel every month, then it would be a good deal. At the time I was looking for a $10k car and a finance rate below 4%.

However, because my commute is so short, the maximum that I can save on diesel fuel is only like $200/month.

[Aitrus]

MJ,

Aren't you in the PNW? If so, won't winter temps inhibit your ability to charge / keep the vehicle in running shape during cold winter temps?

I seem to recall that happening a number of times in the upper East Coast and Chicago areas this past winter.

[mjedlin66]

It doesn’t typically get that cold in western Washington. Even if it does happen once or twice, the car may still work with a significantly reduced range. But if I were to get an electric car, I would have to keep my pickup anyway to haul the boat, so it would be available as a backup.

[PhilJohn]

They are trying to pass a law in my State that you would have to register your firearms in order to keep them. I would never support nor would I conform to a bill like that. I am not a republican or a democrat, but I an a constitutionalist. Making law that turns good citizens into felons overnight is an obvious tell tale of government over reach IMHO.

[bloobs]

It doesn’t typically get that cold in western Washington. Even if it does happen once or twice, the car may still work with a significantly reduced range. But if I were to get an electric car, I would have to keep my pickup anyway to haul the boat, so it would be available as a backup.

Would you consider a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) instead of a pure EV (see https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/cars ... -in-hybrid)?

The advantages of the former is that you can choose between (nearly) all electric motor and dual power mode--removing the adverse effects of cold weather or range limitations.

If so, the Toyota Prius Prime is a great choice given its proven reliability and cost savings (replacement batts only set you back $4k after 200k miles versus $20k for a tesla pack).

[mjedlin66]

I would absolutely consider a PHEV. I think the industry should be doubling down on PHEV rather than battery EV. But oh well.

Either way, the cost of entry is prohibitive. My wife and I have never had a car payment in our lives. Her Subaru does well for our long trips, my pickup does well for my short commute and towing the boat. I don't really have a vehicle problem that needs $20k+ to solve.

Plus my classic mustang will be on the road some time this year, so it will takeover the sunny day commutes.

[Bubba]

This made me pretty happy towards the future. Sadly, I don't think they'll be out next year. Perhaps in a year or 2?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-b ... 00672.html
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/nio-de ... mile-drive
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest ... bankruptcy (this one may never happen)