What's this?

[bloobs]

Any bond market and Fed experts here willing to share how this may affect the stock market?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... fd82&ei=19

[Bubba]

Any bond market and Fed experts here willing to share how this may affect the stock market?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... fd82&ei=19

I'm only postulating here, but I'm thinking that they're doing this in order to help out banks. If they purchase back long-term treasuries that were purchased by banks, than the insolvency for banks will go as a write-off and not haunt them much longer. Of course, who knows if that's the real objective, but given what happened to SVB and other banks, I wouldn't be shocked if this was their idea.

[bloobs]

Any bond market and Fed experts here willing to share how this may affect the stock market?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... fd82&ei=19

I'm only postulating here, but I'm thinking that they're doing this in order to help out banks. If they purchase back long-term treasuries that were purchased by banks, than the insolvency for banks will go as a write-off and not haunt them much longer. Of course, who knows if that's the real objective, but given what happened to SVB and other banks, I wouldn't be shocked if this was their idea.

Sounds like a bull signal to me

[Bubba]

Any bond market and Fed experts here willing to share how this may affect the stock market?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... fd82&ei=19

I'm only postulating here, but I'm thinking that they're doing this in order to help out banks. If they purchase back long-term treasuries that were purchased by banks, than the insolvency for banks will go as a write-off and not haunt them much longer. Of course, who knows if that's the real objective, but given what happened to SVB and other banks, I wouldn't be shocked if this was their idea.

Sounds like a bull signal to me

Perhaps? I'm not sure it would be such a signal though. I take it as the Feds (implying) that there's a real issue with our banks. I happened upon this information, this morning:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GL-hVMMWwAA ... name=small

Sadly it's only about 20 years old. A much longer take would be more interesting.

[Bubba]

I just saw this on Twitter in regards to this question. I think it explains a bit more about what's going on and also sides with the idea that this should help banks.

https://twitter.com/martypartymusic/sta ... 5746663925

Also, this is some interesting info:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-do- ... vic-s7kxe/

Some more scary charts about US banks

-Real Estate
https://posts.voronoiapp.com/markets/Th ... Estate-823
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-con ... ssets.jpeg

-Uninsured assets
https://junkcharts.typepad.com/.a/6a00d ... 30a200d-pi

-General accounting
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visual ... u-s-banks/

-Bank failures visualized
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-con ... 0x600.jpeg

I saw one on debt liabilities (i.e. bonds) specifically per bank. USAA was either the 2nd or 3rd (worst). Not good. I cannot find that link. If I do, I'll post it in this thread.

[bloobs]

I'm only postulating here, but I'm thinking that they're doing this in order to help out banks. If they purchase back long-term treasuries that were purchased by banks, than the insolvency for banks will go as a write-off and not haunt them much longer. Of course, who knows if that's the real objective, but given what happened to SVB and other banks, I wouldn't be shocked if this was their idea.

Sounds like a bull signal to me

Perhaps? I'm not sure it would be such a signal though. I take it as the Feds (implying) that there's a real issue with our banks. I happened upon this information, this morning:

The Fed buyback seems like a bull signal to me because, while it infers a major bank liquidity crisis is imminent (again) it also suggests that the Fed knows about and is attempting to preemptively mitigate it with the bond buybacks. What if their plan works? Then it averts another flash crash/black swan like last year and kicks the can down a few more months through the end of the year. Hypothetically, of course.

[Bubba]

Sounds like a bull signal to me

Perhaps? I'm not sure it would be such a signal though. I take it as the Feds (implying) that there's a real issue with our banks. I happened upon this information, this morning:

The Fed buyback seems like a bull signal to me because, while it infers a major bank liquidity crisis is imminent (again) it also suggests that the Fed knows about and is attempting to preemptively mitigate it with the bond buybacks. What if their plan works? Then it averts another flash crash/black swan like last year and kicks the can down a few more months through the end of the year. Hypothetically, of course.

I've heard it said that no recession is ever equal. It's usually due to one thing or the other...and rarely does it repeat. Given this preventive measure, my best guess is that it'll be something entirely different. What that thing will be could be anyone's guess. Usually, it's something that no one saw coming. Many complain about sovereign debt (check out Japan for a real scary story!). Others imply it'll be some catastrophe led by climate change. Others think it'll be a war with China. Who knows? My personal guess (at the moment) is that the betting markets are forecasting that Biden will win (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election). If that's so, likely the Trump stimulus/tax cuts from 2018 will not be renewed. That might come as a big surprise and cause the upcoming crisis. That's just a guess though. I'm sure we can all point to something...