The Market Is Sick

[Jahbulon]

After my rampage yesterday, a friend asked me what I thought was wrong with the markets. All I could say is this market is sick and getting sicker.

1) QEII failed! AND the U.S. has no strong dollar policy. Liars. They have no choice but to devalue the debt.
2) Japan’s economy is in the dumps. Bug looking for a windshield.
3) Europe is going to default. The math has no way of adding up.
4) The U.S. housing market is getting worse.
5) Unemployment is at generation high levels.
6) Wage growth hasn’t moved in a decade.
7) Commodity prices are rising.
8) Inflation is cropping up for the middle class (food, gas)
9) Politicians are squabbling over a debt ceiling that they HAVE to raise.
10) And lo and behold, the rating agencies have started doing the math and realized that none of the countries involved have the ability to pay all this debt back. (The U.S. has the largest at $14 TRILLION)

Watch the debt run: US Debt Clock

[JayJ]

Don't be such a Susie Sunshine!

[TSPNerd]

While I don't agree with all that you said...You also forgot:

1. China's experiencing record inflation and their manufacturing sector is showing signs of a slow-down too.
2. China is becoming too expensive for companies to cheaply produce goods. Meaning, we're going to see Chinese manufactured crap become more expensive...Also, companies are going to start pulling out of China and move elsewhere like Vietnam, Mexico etc.
3. New hiring is starting to decline (only 38,000 jobs added in May)

IMO, we're headed into another world-wide recession. Hell, we never emerged from the recession in the 1st place.

[Jahbulon]

Sorry JayJ. I just want the crash to get on so we can start another rebound.

[TSPKip]

Jahbulon: I agree and I remain at 100% in G fund. And several market commentators suggest that once our close goes below 1311 on the S&P 500, resistance doesn't occur until 1294. The US dollar was falling through the morning and the Euro reciprocally was rising until noon, yet the market did not rise as expected, suggesting internal weakness. Dollar traders at 55% bullish on the dollar and expect it to rise and the Euro traders are only 50% that it will raise further. So the dollar may rise and the market fall further later. [Today?] But why would it with the Republican's holding the debt credit rates at ransom by threatening default when these negotiations should be done normally in appropriation hearings after the national debt is raised. I understand their argument regarding if we do not use weaponry, we will not find progress. However, true non-political conservatives would not put the U.S. Treasury in jeopardy.

A little hope: I follow percentages above the 200 day SMA, both the lows and highs for the month's oscillations of the S fund and we have not yet closed at the calculated low of 701 [Currently flirting at 701.]
Also: I follow trend lines which calculate for next low closing at 693 [692 on Monday.]

Though the low is pending, everything is not functioning as usual with the volatility rising, previous supports have been broken [20/50/100 day SMA], the trading day is not over, and the weekend is upon us; so, I will not be moving into the S fund at present.

[UwshUwerME]

You forgot one...the stimulus plan of 2009 failed.

[barryusa]

As Manufacturing Drops, So Does the Market

Curse words were out in force on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 plunged about 2.3%.

The question is: Why?

You can blame it on the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Its manufacturing index came in way below expectations – 52.8%, versus estimates of 57%.

While any number above 50% indicates growth, manufacturing is definitely slowing down. We need to keep an eye on these figures, as the S&P 500 has historically lagged the ISM index.

However, while a continual decline in the ISM index could foreshadow a market decline, let’s not rush to judgment.

As Bespoke Investment Group reveals, declines of 10% or more for the ISM Manufacturing index aren’t necessarily negative for the S&P 500. In fact, since 1948, following 23 ISM declines of 10% or more, the S&P 500 went on to rally an average of 11.3% over the next year.

[barryusa]

As Manufacturing Drops, So Does the Market

Curse words were out in force on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 plunged about 2.3%.

The question is: Why?

You can blame it on the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Its manufacturing index came in way below expectations – 52.8%, versus estimates of 57%.

While any number above 50% indicates growth, manufacturing is definitely slowing down. We need to keep an eye on these figures, as the S&P 500 has historically lagged the ISM index.

However, while a continual decline in the ISM index could foreshadow a market decline, let’s not rush to judgment.

As Bespoke Investment Group reveals, declines of 10% or more for the ISM Manufacturing index aren’t necessarily negative for the S&P 500. In fact, since 1948, following 23 ISM declines of 10% or more, the S&P 500 went on to rally an average of 11.3% over the next year.

[athuddrive]

.

[blakeh02]

The problem is athuddrive is that all the numbers are skewed. One group says the stimulus worked, the other says it didn't. We'll never know the truth because the numbers are all made up out of thin air "shadow" stats. The dems can make themselves look good with lies and so can the neocon republicans.

[TSPKip]

Having retired in November 2008, I have noted that after March 2009: less than 2 months after our President came into office, My C and S fund growth demonstrates that the Stimulus plan worked as many small businesses got financing, and ~ $50% went to tax cuts and more went to rehire teachers, firemen, police officers. Check your 1040 from 2008 through 2011.

[UwshUwerME]

You want data to show you it failed? Excuse me, let me re-phrase it...the stimulus plan of 2009 did not work. So I want someone to show me that the stimulus worked. By the growth of large companies and the stock market? To me, that's not growing the pie in this country the way it should (by smaller innovative businesses) and hasn't show much for creating jobs by having the larger companies send more and more jobs to China.

Rehire teachers, firemen, police officers...and how is this economic stimulus?

I agree with the author...QEII also failed. Why in the world is putting money into banks so they can invest in big companies the way to grow our economy? They aren't lending that money to individuals and small businesses.

Check your 1040, it shows the same income as last year!

With my family members out of work because nobody is hiring, and now the Tea Party after my job because the National Debt is montrous...show me again how the stimulus worked.

[TSPKip]

My wife and I went to your beautiful state this Spring for 1 week. IwshIwerYOU.

IRS.com: 'In 2009 and 2010, the Making Work Pay provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided a refundable tax credit of up to $400 for working individuals and up to $800 for married taxpayers filing joint returns. Didn't you get $800 to improve your family status where you could save, spend for necessary items which help local businesses, etc? [1600 for joint return over 2 years]. Weren't you safer with a full complement of police and fire personnel? [Spending money for local business.] Over 2,000,000 private sector jobs. Recession over technically over in 2nd half of 2009?

[blakeh02]

But see TSPKip you believe the gov't. Also you are linking the market(C and S fund) to the economy. Do you think the banksters on Wall Street care what happens to the economy. They know when to get in the market and when to get out. Its just a racket.

[TSPKip]

blakeh02: The market's gain or loss is only one indicator of the Economy.

My father was in the Big Red 1, went through the Invasions of North Africa, Sicily, Normandy second wave, and fought across Europe receiving the Silver Star and Purple Heart. I served in Vietnam as a medic in a field hospital. He knew what patriotism was and taught it to me.

I also learned that the fourth branch of the government was it's citizens, who are to believe in an imperfect government and strive to make it a perfect union.

Yes, Those politicians who have sold their votes to be re-elected and banksters who hired them will have to deal with their Maker and my vote.

I believe in God, I believe in the government, I believe in some politicians, and I believe in you, blakeh02.