Buy Full Moon and Sell New Moon

[Tomanyiron]

Moon Cycles Theory of Stock Markets.
http://www.getmoneyenergy.com/2009/11/s ... full-moon/
According to Steven Whiteside of TheUpTrend.com (who is not the originator of this theory, by the way – he just pays attention to it and lets it inform his analysis), the ultimate peaks and valleys of a market tend to occur at new moons and full moons.
According to moon cycle analysis, new moons are highly correlated with peaks in the stock market while full moons are highly correlated with bottoms.

If you accept moon cycle theory, then you should buy stocks around a full moon and sell stocks around a new moon.

The moon cycle theory doesn’t say that all new moons will cause a market peak — just that major market peaks, when they occur, will tend to happen on a new moon. According to Whiteside, “significant changes in the markets happen around these times.”

Whiteside doesn’t actually make changes to his positions strictly based upon moon analysis. He uses it as a guide, but looks for further confirmation elsewhere that the market is making a top or a bottom before acting on the information. However, Whiteside is quick to point out that the market highs in 2007 were around a new moon and that the last two peaks in the market were also on new moons and the last two valleys were on full moons (including the “full moon low” in March 2009).

Although moon cycle analysis certainly sounds outlandish, it is no more outlandish than some other so-called economic indicators. I wouldn’t place trades on its basis, but I wouldn’t rule out the merit of someone doing a genuinely unbiased study further examining some of these correlations.

What do you think? Have you heard of this one before?

FYI
June 15th, (Wed of last week) was Full Moon, and also the last down day before the markets started back up. July 1st will be the next New Moon.

[Jahbulon]

I've heard of it, and it is interesting, but I just cannot buy into it because it simply doesn't make logical sense to me that the moon can do all that............

I think over the last 10-12 years June breakout attempts have all ended in failure.....in my opinion. I could be wrong and maybe missed one, but it looks that way.

[Sarah]

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[twingum]

I apply moon cycle theory to plan my fishing, but it hasn't been real successful there either.

[TSPKip]

As the markets have a lot of psychological influence [fear and greed]; and as my wife who was a teacher and principal for 32 years and who noted abhorrent behavior on days of the full moon in her sensitive students, I must give some credence in the notion that sensitive investors may be influenced by the full moon [tidal or lack of sleep?] It was harder to quantify best behavior on new moons.

[Sarah]

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[ravioli817]

it may just be because of a monthly cycle that just happens to overlap the moon cycle, just like first days of the month are strong.... since the month is based on the moons orbital pattern

[tspnoob]

I have read the Ebb guy's chatter on Tsp talk many moons ago and he did mentioned the full moon eerily affecting his charts. Sarah he mostly jokes about the moon effecting his charts.

He does not use the moon cycles. Adherent of moon / loony cycles? Wow. How bout astrology while were at it?

[Tomanyiron]

I was looking at some of the new seasonal strategies on mjedlin’s calculator. And I got to thinking, do any of the dates relate to (don't laugh) moon cycles?

I remembered that I had posted something on it way back, (6 years ago, time flies when you're having fun). So I dug it out, with the idea that it might intrigue MJ or maybe Aitrus enough to do some correlations.

“University studies have been conducted on astrologers’ assertions that Lunar phases affect public mood and, thereby, also cause an impact on stock prices.

Basically, stock prices tend to be higher around the time of the New Moon each month and reach a temporary low point around the time of the Full Moon. Now that’s statistically speaking. And there are Lies, Damned Lies - and Statistics!”


http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/moontrading.html

If you accept moon cycle theory, then you should buy stocks on a full moon (next one is Sunday July 23) and sell stocks on a new moon (Monday Aug 7).
https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/

[mindofmush]

How does this affect your Mood Factor study?

[Tomanyiron]

How does this affect your Mood Factor study?

None. Both the Strength and Mood calculations are derived for what is happening now, and recent past. I consider it just another way of looking at the cycles of ups and downs.

[mindofmush]

Huh.
I thought the loony factor of the Moon phases would affect investor sentiment and therefore the Mood Factor.

I guess I don't understand your Strength & Mood study yet, but I always look forward to your charts.

Cheers

[Tomanyiron]

Huh.
I thought the loony factor of the Moon phases would affect investor sentiment and therefore the Mood Factor.

Mindo I posted a response to this in the "Strength and Mood" thread.