What do you consider the most serious problem facing the US?

[Jahbulon]

Healthcare
Government Debt
Economy in General
Unemployment
Education
Immigration
War (non-specific)
Moral / Ethical Decline
Dissatisfaction With Government
Other (please specify)

[Sarah]

.

[McLovin]

First and foremost is Unemployment. When people are working all is better in the
world... Not all is right, but better. Working people are happier ( they see a future,
they see possibilities, they have hope). They can afford to live. After that it falls to Education,
which is what keeps people employed in dire times. I know that is a contradiction to our current society as that I doubt that in any time in our nations past that we have had as many individuals with college degrees. And that is because a college degree does not have the same value as it once did. It is too easy to obtain an online diploma that clearly isn't worth the ink on the page. The education system has to be repaired so that the middle class can emerge again.
The current Education crisis stems form the fact that people refuse to adapt. Darwin once stated that, "Intelligence is not a factor of how much knowledge an organism can retain but rather how quickly a species adapts to change." (or soething along that lines... my interpretation). We in the US have got to adapt, improvise, overcome (Thank you Gunny Highway). Necessity (all you School house rock fans is knocking) is the mother of invention.
Necessity is knocking at our doors... Time to adapt or get out of the way of those that have already done so.

We have a similar problem in the Navy right now. Too many officers and not enough Chiefs! A program that was began in 1994 called STA-21 by an admiral that ultimately committed suicide over his ribbons. It is filtering out the smart enlisted men into the Officer pool and weakening the CPO's mess. Now the original intent was to try to hold onto the smart kids that would join for one enlistment and retain them in the service rather than lose them(which was truly admirable). But these boards have become more about popularity than quality. And this has allowed the functional breakdown in our system. The military is also suffering from War time attrition... an entirely different topic.

In my travels throughout the world I have noticed; where people have housing, a stable job, and education opportunities for their children; Hope and peace spontaneously erupted. And that is regardless of what form of government they live under.

[Jahbulon]

Sarah,

Can you tell us all more about your Yahoo TSP Strategy group?

[Sarah]

.

[crondanet5]

McLovin, officer acquisition is always a problem. Past administration culls weakened the Navy officer corps and left holes that needed to be filled. (You may have an aircraft carrier but it needs pilots to fly the planes. And the nature of your mission mandates they be commissioned for responsible accountability. That said, the Navy also has outstanding enlisted people who, properly commissioned would fill the needed open jobs and keep things shipshape. I recommend you read the Jan/Feb 2011 The Atlantic article "Why the U.S. Military is Getting Dumber." Well, not really, but the article will strongly support your statement about the Navy's current manning situation. Force sustainability is a tricky thing to predict. People you thought would stay just get tired of sea duty, the very thing they signed up for. I don't have a solution, just trust the Navy will solve this problem. Your mission remains complex, challenging, demanding, and your country needs you.

[RangerDave]

Wow. You guys make me proud!!!

[TSPKip]

We no longer have statesmen who, despite their political party, stood for what was necessary for the betterment of the USA.

[Jahbulon]

I'm reading the book "Valley Forge" and based on it, politics were just as ugly in the begining as they are now.

From the History Channel:

February 14: General Interest
278 : St. Valentine beheaded

On February 14 around the year 278 A.D., Valentine, a holy priest in Rome in the days of Emperor Claudius II, was executed.

Under the rule of Claudius the Cruel, Rome was involved in many unpopular and bloody campaigns. The emperor had to maintain a strong army, but was having a difficult time getting soldiers to join his military leagues. Claudius believed that Roman men were unwilling to join the army because of their strong attachment to their wives and families.

To get rid of the problem, Claudius banned all marriages and engagements in Rome. Valentine, realizing the injustice of the decree, defied Claudius and continued to perform marriages for young lovers in secret.

When Valentine's actions were discovered, Claudius ordered that he be put to death. Valentine was arrested and dragged before the Prefect of Rome, who condemned him to be beaten to death with clubs and to have his head cut off. The sentence was carried out on February 14, on or about the year 270.

Legend also has it that while in jail, St. Valentine left a farewell note for the jailer's daughter, who had become his friend, and signed it "From Your Valentine."

For his great service, Valentine was named a saint after his death.

In truth, the exact origins and identity of St. Valentine are unclear. According to the Catholic Encyclopedia, "At least three different Saint Valentines, all of them martyrs, are mentioned in the early martyrologies under the date of 14 February." One was a priest in Rome, the second one was a bishop of Interamna (now Terni, Italy) and the third St. Valentine was a martyr in the Roman province of Africa.

Legends vary on how the martyr's name became connected with romance. The date of his death may have become mingled with the Feast of Lupercalia, a pagan festival of love. On these occasions, the names of young women were placed in a box, from which they were drawn by the men as chance directed. In 496 AD, Pope Gelasius decided to put an end to the Feast of Lupercalia, and he declared that February 14 be celebrated as St Valentine's Day.

Gradually, February 14 became a date for exchanging love messages, poems and simple gifts such as flowers.

[Jahbulon]

Cumberland Advisors
2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360-8007
1-800-257-7013 http://www.cumber.com

Some Personal Observations about Egypt by Peter Alois

February 14, 2011

Peter Alois is a director of the Global Interdependence Center and one of my colleagues there. He is retired from the Commercial Service of the US Department of Commerce, where he had many years of experience posted in the Middle East. He is also president of his own export consulting company. His website is http://www.aloisglobal.com/. His email is palois@aloisglobal.com. He first visited Egypt in 1965. Peter is organizing a GIC discussion of the Egyptian revolution and its aftermath. Details on GIC website, http://www.interdependence.org.

Until Feb. 11, the situation in Egypt had been unfolding quite routinely. Unanticipated changes in any government move over highly variable time intervals, from: public protest, to government paralysis, to angry but not automatically violent confrontation between the two sides, to a second pause, to low-level violence either between the two or within them, to yet a third pause, and finally to a stabilizing resolution, too often through bloodshed frequently triggered inadvertently by either the public side or the government apparatus.

Remember the trivial incident in Tunisia in which a local policeman allegedly slapped a street vendor, confiscating his stand? How many times around the world has a cop just smacked someone, and life goes on? We can only imagine the desperation that caused this individual to set himself on fire, ultimately dying in a hospital. He was truly the human match on the Tunisian and Egyptian gasoline of government incompetence.

One typical yet critical aspect is the violence between the public protesters themselves, as the factions struggle for power against the government. Think of the American, French, and Russian revolutions, where the protesters cannibalized themselves. Freedom yes, but only for me and my supporters. E.g., the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks, culminating in the assassination of Trotsky in Mexico in 1937, years after the Russian revolution and after Lenin had died in 1924 and been replaced by Stalin.

A second and very modern phenomenon is the hyperactive and instantaneous media coverage. Literally, we witness live, on-the-spot reporting, with sound and color, from voyeuristic foreign journalists who appear to have no awareness of even where they are standing We hear towers of misleading babble, cheerfully filling network time.

Returning to Egypt, I am dazzled that to date the developments have played out with minimal violence. Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians have been on the streets, surrounded by troops with tanks. Rocks and Molotov cocktails have been hurled (the latter named in honor of the Soviet Foreign Minister, by protesting Berliners and Hungarians in the '50s), but stunningly, there was no massive violent put-down by the military.

What's up with this? Is the Egyptian military ready to cede power to the people? Army General Nasser seized power in 1952 with an associate, Army General Sadat. Sadat took over in 1970 with the death of Nasser. Air Force General Mubarak followed in 1981 when Sadat was assassinated. Is democracy led by the military really growing along the Nile? We shall see. The army is now back in control of Egypt. Did they ever really leave?

Certainly any governmental change will reverberate beyond the borders: in Israel, in all ways; in the Suez Canal, with regional economic ramifications; and in the other Islamic countries, in more subtle ways. Egypt has been unique for thousands of years with its sophisticated and elegant culture including: (1) a dramatic brush with apostasy under the heretic Pharaoh Akhnaton, who eliminated traditional beliefs only momentarily, in 1383 B.C., by exchanging multiple gods and goddesses for the single God, Aton; (2) rule over the eastern Med under various Pharaohs; (3) being the epicenter of European interventions, from the Greeks in Alexandria to the Brits at the Canal (until the USA firmly asked them to depart in 1956); and (4) being an admired model for all Arabs.

Now Egypt is so much more to the entire world; it has become the model for popular revolt and a military's surrender! As all veterans everywhere know, no military is anything like a democracy. The Financial Times of February 12/13 on page 2 has the headline, "Army takes nation into uncharted territory." This is somewhat true, but the headline would more appropriately be, "Army finds itself in uncharted territory." The dog finally caught the car. Good luck, pal.

It occurs to me that Islam in Egypt may be like Catholicism in Latin America: the folks were doing just fine until foreigners violently forced a new religion onto a pre-existing culture with its own beliefs. Today, Christianity throughout Latin America is a special blend of Spanish Catholicism and native animism, with hints of modern Protestant evangelicalism.

Islam in Egypt has been traditionally liberal: I have enjoyed beer and wine publicly with Egyptians in open areas, the level of education for both men and women is relatively high. And women still wear (long) skirts but can have considerable authority. Sexism in the Middle East does continue. Let's glance at the USA though: liberal, plentiful booze (plus guns), universal though questionable education, skirts, pant-suits, T-shirts, and cut-offs – and sexism is rampant in certain quarters . And we too have fundamentalists of all religious brands who expect you and me to burn in whatever hell they believe in.

As for Egypt, I am wondering what the military and the civilian security forces are thinking. My guess is that the government's official apparatus is growing more fragmented within itself as these titular as well as would-be leaders (generals versus ministers) struggle internally. They now confront public factions whose wannabe leaders also must be jockeying among themselves (intellectuals, politicians, student council presidents). This is just normal street politics, with the intelligence civilian Omar Suleiman looming with true sphinx-like dignity. (By the way, Mubarak is still inside Egypt.) Nevertheless, historically, some piece of the security apparatus suddenly acts violently, because it has traditionally held and wielded the authority and the weapons.

The situation deteriorates bloodily until stabilization occurs at the end of a gun and the latest hefe emerges surrounded by uniforms. Throughout the Middle East, leaders and their governmental plus private supporters must be terrified right now. Their collective political failures may shortly be made public in the most appalling of ways. We are watching that saga unfold in several countries.

The foreign media report what they believe they see, influencing their own governments around the world. I doubt whether anyone anywhere in any government (including the Egyptians, certainly not the Americans, nor the Israelis) knows what is truly going on. They can only speculate about who is up and who is down, and in what directions they might take Egypt. That's not a criticism of the serious people involved. It is merely a blunt reality check. It is a criticism of the many foreign pundits and politicians who scream for action in Egypt but are truly know-nothings just playing for political points or Nielsen ratings. Those many pauses I mentioned above within the standard revolutionary cycle implied that the real players were taking deep breaths. Foreigners need to do the same with regard to Egypt and the Middle East, and zip it.

Iran and Turkey are theoretical models of evolution, yet they are likely not to apply to the Egyptian reality. The cultures are dramatically different, the personalities are unique to this moment, and the weird and wonderful foreign influences have accumulated over the millennia.

Yet this essentially peaceful blooming of democratic potential is amazing. It may offer hope for the autocratic Middle East. The venal aristocracies of wealth and power and their front men around the world may fear the coming of spring, with possible germination of the determined seeds of liberty, justice, and opportunity for all.

In sum, most of us will continue to watch and learn from this ancient civilization, perhaps with opinions modulated but certainly with fingers crossed for the Egyptian people, for their neighbors, and ultimately for ourselves. Are we ready?

We thank Peter Alois for this guest addition to Cumberland’s website.

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

[TSPNerd]

Most serious problem facing the US is personal and corporate debt.

Everyone wants to own a McMansion and a BMW, but not everyone can afford one. No problem, we'll all leverage ourselves as far as we can go. If we can't afford it, we'll throw it on the credit card. Need that BMW X5 for the wife to really impress the soccer moms? Go get a 2nd mortgage and a HELOC to pay for it. Gotta keep up with the next door neighbors...Who, by the way, are probably more in debt that you are.

Many of us were taught this from our parent's generation who 1st became enthralled with credit cards. We learned it from our parents and now we've taken the ball and it's at an extreme. Only problem is that now, we're in debt up to our eyeballs and we're sinking fast. We never were taught how to be fiscally responsible and now, the whole economy is suffering because we're so in debt.

So we're all leveraged to such a high degree that if anything bad happens at all, the house of cards comes tumbling down. Then we sit around and wonder why the economy sucks and why we're relying on govt stimulus to keep things from falling apart. But, lets all blame the govt...That seems convenient. It's too hard to look inward to our own finances and see the mess we've made.

[Sarah]

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[Jahbulon]

I like your take on things Sarah.

My biggest concern is the over all balancing act of government in our lives to make sure we regulate enough, but not over regulate too the point where we are killing jobs........I want to make sure we keep a happy medium in there some where.............

[TSPNerd]

Another big problem I'd like to see the govt address ist the corporate tax rate. Now that Japan is lowering their corporate tax rate by 5%, the United States has the higest corporate tax rate in the world. 35% corporate tax rate?!?! Is there any wonder why American companies are moving their operations to China.

Very good article on the subject.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-1 ... ssett.html

[flight23]

Reduce the corporate tax rate and individuals will end up picking up the slack... companies making money that is taxed at 35% will take the savings and increase the bonuses of those at the top. I agree entirely with Sarah regarding the loss of the middle class. We need an exorbitant luxury tax on compensation over 5-10M per year so that companies are forced to utilize more stock based compensation and redistribute much of those high salaries to the workforce.