Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

[Jahbulon]

Are we in a Bull Market, or a Bull Trap?

[flight23]

Bull trap you mean?

[rwblizzard]

Neither. Bear market.

[Jahbulon]

Thanks for catching that Flight........

[Foghorn]

Jahby,

I've been following the S Fund for some time now and the chart shows that it has been in an uptrend since early Oct 2011, therefore, my opinion is that we're in a Bull market.
Yes, the S Fund dipped in Nov 2011 for about 8 days but after that it continued the uptrend.
I expect further dips (and I will buy the dips) but until the trend breaks and remains in a downtrend I will continue to espouse that it's a Bull market.

Foghorn
PS: I reactived my account.

[Jahbulon]

Foghorn, I'm putting you on my watch list!

Glad you are back! Knock em dead!

[Jted1785]

I think the market will remain bullish until late May early June but take some giant dips in the summer when the budget defecit crisis issue re-emerges.

[TSPKip]

By definition: Bull markets: The 50 day moving average [MA] above the 200, 60 days uptrend with optimism and in several equity funds. Where this breaks down is: do we use the Simple or Exponential moving averages? The exponential and simple MA both turned down about the August 14 +-, but the Simple has not had a Golden Cross yet in the NYSE, or S fund, [went above the 200 yesterday in the Nasdaq Comp therefore needs one more day for confirmation.] The C fund's Simple crossed the 200 on January 31.

Though the Exponential MA seems to predict the market trends better, the exponential was only used since the 1960's with the prior 80 year's markets using the Simple MA for calling Bull markets.

So: if the Nasdaq Composite closes up tomorrow beyond its shadow [which I believe it will,] then the most often used MA: Simple: will have more than one major equity over the 200 by the 50 and we will, IMHO, be in a Bull market.

[Jahbulon]

Could Friday have been a short squeeze?

[TSPKip]

Jah: Though some did not expect the rise and had previously shorted the stock causing them to buy the stock Friday, I think some on the sidelines decided to come back into the market.

[Jahbulon]

Regrettably I missed this move and was skeptical about it from the start. Then I kept waiting for the market to take a breather to jump in because I didn't want to chase it, but it never came.

Its weird how back a few months ago the U.S. debt and European crisis mattered so much, and now matter so little………..

[GFCSorI]

Ugg.. It really looks like this time Greece is going to default. My guess is I'm going to regret not going all G/F on friday. I guess we'll see but it looks pretty bad in the negotiations over there. I wonder if this will result in a hard default or orderly default. Any ideas?

[Jahbulon]

If the current trend holds up, the markets will just shrug it off.

Do you have a link to what your watching?

[TSPKip]

As they still have ~40 days to make arrangements, I think this is more of the same posturing. Though, I agree with you: UGH.

[GFCSorI]

Just google Greece and deal and you get a bunch of up to minute 'sky is falling' news out of Europe. Here is one link:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/fe ... sfeed=true