Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

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esiekman
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:52 am

Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by esiekman »

I apologize now if my question is confusing, I will certainly attempt to be as clear as possible. Regardless of what method a person subscribes to, daily, seasonal, etc., how does a person know what, in the marketplace, is/was the catalyst for that move?

For example, one of the daily strategies I have posted in my office says that on the 18th trading day in September, we should be in the "F" fund. I realize that there is no guarantee for future growth, but we attempt to predict the market off historical trends. It is those trends that I am curious to learn about.

So in the example above regarding the 18th trading day in September, we are saying that is where you want to be for possible future growth based off historical trends. So my question is, what typically happens around that time of the year to cause people to move to the "F" fund? What should I be looking for in the marketplace, either financially, politically, etc.? This question is not just isolated to the example, but all "scheduled" moves based on historical data. On that same note, for this example just to give me an idea, can someone tell me what typically happens historically around that time in the market to prompt a move to "F".

I think it is obviously important to know when to move your money to either reduce/eliminate loss or maximize gains, but I think it is more important to not just be a lemming and do it because everyone else is doing it, but to know why you are doing it. With the thousands of books, websites and seminars regarding stocks/bonds/market, where can one go to gain the knowledge of what to look for to support/substantiate the moves we make.

Again, I hope this makes sense and apologize now if it does not.

Thank you all for your guidance.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Good question and I asked the same thing. The dailys we just don't know yet, as the strategy is pretty new. It's going to take a someone or many someones to take a look at each of those IFT dates and use the google machine to see what happens the following date when the trade comes to fruition.

Is there some sort of yearly financial report from the fed? Quarterly job numbers? A major holiday? Etc.. I have an idea quite a few of the IFTs will end up following events like that. I just haven't had the time to put in the research to see.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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scotth2010
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 11:04 am

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by scotth2010 »

Welcome to legalized gambling.
You go with the odds, there is still the random variations, hot dealers, but go with the odds.
In this case history, hopefully you beat the house.

homeslice
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:05 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by homeslice »

scotth2010 wrote:Welcome to legalized gambling.
You go with the odds, there is still the random variations, hot dealers, but go with the odds.
In this case history, hopefully you beat the house.


:lol:

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mhende2
Posts: 87
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:32 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by mhende2 »

I believe Options due dates have a lot to do with it. People trying to cover their options contracts before the contracts are due. see www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar for the key dates.
For an understanding of what Options are go to www.investopedia.com and search for Options basics. Be sure you understand them well before you ever invest in them, because you really can loose your a** fast if you don't. Those things are definitely legalized gambling in my opinion. For those wondering, Yes, I speak from experience.
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.
-Robert Arnott

crondanet5
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Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by crondanet5 »

mehende2 I totally agree. And there seems to be a pattern to the results of option expiration Friday. There also appears to be a pattern the week of and the week after option expiration Friday. There is talk of certain investors driving the price of a stock down and this may facilitate reaping great profits in the process. Wasn't this the intent of the assault on Herbalife? The question is can this be tracked and give us direction for the future of the markets? Wouldn't that be cool?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by Tomanyiron »

I think it’s all about averages. I’m not positive what method Aitrus and mjedlin66 used, but if I had my arm twisted, I would do it with line charts. First you need the data, and by that every trading day’s performance for each of the funds. Going back as far as you can get it. Create a chart with each fund’s average as a line. Then look and see which line was above the others at different dates. And viola you have it, simple as pie right?

If I break a leg or something, or get laid-up and can’t get out and do anything. I might try my hand at it sometime. I can’t get past the feeling that it’s like predicting the weather basted of what has happen on this date in the past. However the thing is, it works for the ones that believe in it and the one that don’t, like crondanet5. :lol:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by crondanet5 »

Tommie I don't think Fund charts will work. There has to be another way of tracking option expiration activity and direction. But I don't understand options and don't use them. So I'm no good for this study. Almost like I broke a leg or something. Nap time for you?

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evilanne
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Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by evilanne »

I don't think it's possible to come up with the rationale for all time periods and the seasonal method, but there are some generalizations you can make. E.g. Towards the end of September you have the end of the government fiscal year and whether or not the Congress has passed a budget, so there is much uncertainty, which is not good for stock, therefore moving to F kind of makes sense in that regard. Another example would be between Black Friday and the end of the year when a lot of people are shopping for the holidays and stocks tend to do well. Throughout the year you have different earning periods when companies report, which impact the markets positively or negatively, which may or may not align with some of the seaonal dates. I don't think you're going to be able to rationalize all of the different trading days due to many different variables and some events are nonrecurring with constant changes

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by Octjan2 »

My guy on Wall Street told me the market is rigged, and the daily seasonals are used by the top 1% who make millions of dollars a day with these trades . Somehow the report leaked and we got a hold of it. The top tier hedge fund managers are planning a meeting to discuss changing the dates because we weren't supposed to have them, LOL.

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Jokerswild
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:58 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by Jokerswild »

Tomanyiron wrote:If I break a leg or something, or get laid-up and can’t get out and do anything. I might try my hand at it sometime. I can’t get past the feeling that it’s like predicting the weather basted of what has happen on this date in the past. However the thing is, it works for the ones that believe in it and the one that don’t, like crondanet5. :lol:


Some people will never believe in the Daily Seasonals even with the information yielding positive results. We are like farmer's trying to cultivate and grow our money so that one day we could enjoy the fruits of our labor. Now if only someone could help us be better farmer's by cataloging a fairly accurately formula to grow these crops based on patterns, maybe draft up an almanac or something....like they did in 1792... Lol.

That's what we should be calling the TSP daily strategies, the federal farmer's TSP almanac. One day people will be calling Aitrus and MJedlin the authors of this creation hehehe
Shawn AKA "Joker"

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen

hellsbells
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:36 pm

Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by hellsbells »

Octjan2 wrote:My guy on Wall Street told me the market is rigged, and the daily seasonals are used by the top 1% who make millions of dollars a day with these trades . Somehow the report leaked and we got a hold of it. The top tier hedge fund managers are planning a meeting to discuss changing the dates because we weren't supposed to have them, LOL.



With the performance I see, it must be rigged. :mrgreen:

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12squared
Posts: 675
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Re: Factors/Variables That Prompt Movement

Post by 12squared »

Jokerswild wrote:Some people will never believe in the Daily Seasonals even with the information yielding positive results. We are like farmer's trying to cultivate and grow our money so that one day we could enjoy the fruits of our labor. Now if only someone could help us be better farmer's by cataloging a fairly accurately formula to grow these crops based on patterns, maybe draft up an almanac or something....like they did in 1792... Lol.

That's what we should be calling the TSP daily strategies, the federal farmer's TSP almanac. One day people will be calling Aitrus and MJedlin the authors of this creation hehehe


Considering that there are only 4 seasons per year, calling even a strategy based on monthly trades "seasonal" is a bit of a stretch. "Monthly Historical" and "Daily Historical" might be more appropriate terms for these strategies.

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